River Flood Warning 10, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
632 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly move east
  across the area this morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be the
  main risk with this morning activity.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through this morning for
  locations along and north of a Nevada to Versailles line where
  the heaviest rainfall occurred Wednesday evening into this
  morning.

- Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur this morning and
  afternoon.

- There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms this
  afternoon and evening east of Highway 65, however confidence
  in storm development and coverage is low.

- Another round of storms (some severe) are expected Friday
  evening and night. The highest chances for severe storms are
  expected along and northwest of a Branson to Rolla Missouri
  Line.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend
  into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday
  and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could lead to
  the potential for frost to form if winds are light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers and storms are currently occurring from northern
Missouri into central Oklahoma early this morning. The activity
is generally remaining across the western portions of the are
currently, west of Highway 65. The activity has not move much
east from Wednesday evening to now as a cap remains in place
further to the east of the activity. Uncapped MUCAPE remains in
place across the western portions of the area where the showers
and storms area occurring. These are the locations that
received the heaviest rainfall yesterday, so a flooding risk
will continue mainly the northern portions of the area this
morning, where a Flood Watch is remains in effect until noon
today. The rain should moving out of these locations by noon, if
not sooner, so no changes to the Flood Watch will occur. As an
upper level trough moves east the cap will begin to erode
allowing the the showers and storms to start to move east early
this morning through the morning hours likely making it to the
Highway 65 corridor this morning. Models show that the cap will
remain in place further to the east through much of the morning,
so this activity will likely weaken further as it moves into
the eastern Ozarks this morning.

An upper level low is currently located across western Kansas
early this morning. The low will northeast into Iowa by this
afternoon. An area of surface low pressure is also located
across western Kansas and will also move to the northwest into
Iowa today. The pressure gradient will increase this morning
and afternoon allowing winds to increase out of the south to
southwest today. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will develop by mid
morning and continue at times into the afternoon hours. If high
enough mixing can occur there could be the potential for an
isolate gusts up to 50 mph at times but with the showers and
clouds in place this is a low potential at this time.

As surface front will move southwest into the area this
morning/afternoon and will stall over the area. The front will
stall near the I-44 corridor into this evening and will lift
back to the north tonight. As the upper level trough move
northeast across the plains the cap will weaken as instability
increase across the area this morning into this evening ahead of
the front. A drier air mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will build into the area today and will likely limited
convection develop. Further east slightly better moisture will
be in place and some scattered storm develop will be possible
this afternoon and evening, generally east of Highway 65..
MLCAPE values will increase to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg this
afternoon/evening. The deep layer shear will also increase today
and will support the potential for severe weather if storms can
develop. The front will just slowly move into the area and
stall as the better upper air support moves off to the
northeast. So forcing may not be all that strong across the
area. Also, the drier air in the mid levels cloud limit how
much of the instability that can be realized. Therefore, there
are still question on storm development and coverage. If storms
can develop and over come the dry air there would be the
potential for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon into
this evening, west of Highway 65. The main risk would be hail
to the size of quarters and scattered damaging winds gusts. Low
level shear will start to increase during the evening hours as a
low level jet develops, if storms can develop and remain
surface base and organized into this evening there could be a
low tornado risk this evening west of Highway 63.

The front should lift back north of the area by Friday morning.
Another upper level trough will move across the northern Plains
on Friday and another area of surface low pressure will move
northeast across the central Plains into Iowa on Friday. The
pressure gradient will once again tighten across the area allow
southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph to occur at times. A cold
front will move east across Kansas on Friday afternoon as the
low moves to the northeast and into and through and through the
region Friday evening and night. Some lingering showers and a
few storms could occur across the area Saturday morning behind
the front before pushing off to the south. Instability will
increase ahead of the front. A line of storms will likely
develop along the front as strong forcing occurs with the front.
The main risk will be damaging winds and and some hail up to
the size of quarters. The better insatiability will be along and
north of a Branson to Rolla Missouri line, where the better
coverage in strong to severe wind gusts will occur, but at
least a scattered damaging wind risk will occur to the southeast
of this line Friday night. Low level shear will increase ahead
of the front Friday evening and night as a low level jet
develops. There will enough low level CAPE in place to to
support a risk for a few spin up tornadoes within the line with
any line surges to the east. The line will be moving fast so any
heavy rain will be brief in nature, but locations that received
heavy rainfall yesterday into today could see a localized
flooding risk with this additional flooding risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A cooler air mass will move into the region behind the front
this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 60s will occur
this weekend, with some upper 50 readings possible in spots.
Highs will warm into the middle 60s to near 70 early next week.
Lows are expected to drop into the 30s Sunday and Monday
mornings with light winds. There could be some frost potential
each morning as the NBM is showing a 20-50% (low to moderate)
chance of temps dropping below 36 degrees both those mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

An area of weakening showers and storms continue to slowly move
east across western and central Missouri early this morning.
This activity will continue to move east this morning, and
should further weaken as it moves into the eastern Ozarks. MVFR
to IFR conditions will be possible with the storms and and
showers this morning. With the activity weakening as it moves
east it may be more short lived at any given location.

Gusty south to southwesterly winds will occur today and increase
by mid morning this morning and afternoon with winds gradually
weakening this evening into tonight.

Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be
possible this afternoon and evening, mainly east of Highway 65
if not east of Highway 63. The mornings convection may limit
redevelopment later today and if storms can develop coverage
could be limited.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055-056-066-
     067.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-030845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
344 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Marginal hail risk.
  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across the
area this morning. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be
the main risk with the morning storms. A localized flooding risk
will occur north of Highway 54, where a heavy rainfall corridor
occurred Wednesday evening into this morning.

Gusty south to southwesterly winds will develop by mid morning and
continue through the afternoon hours. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
will occur at times today.

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible if storms can
develop this afternoon and evening east of Highway 65. There are
questions on if storms can redevelop and if so the coverage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will occur again on Friday.

Another system will move through the region Friday evening and
night, bringing a line of thunderstorms to the area. There is a
slight risk for severe storms Friday evening and night.

Cold temperatures could promote frost development Sunday and
Monday mornings if winds stay light.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
728 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     Flood            1 SE Florence           38.58N 92.96W
04/02/2026                   Morgan             MO   Dept of Highways

            State Highway BB is closed at Gabriel Creek
            due to flooding.

&&

MB

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