Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
709 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk for severe weather across most of the area this
  afternoon through Saturday. Severe storms may occur at anytime
  during this period. Hazards include damaging winds up to
  60-70 mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and localized
  flash flooding.

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Saturday. Multiple rounds of
  heavy rainfall over areas already saturated brings a Slight to
  Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall and flooding. Additional
  localized rainfall amounts of up to 3-5 inches are possible.

- Relatively drier with near-normal temperatures next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

An analysis of current conditions once again places complex
features across the region. An expansive band of cloud cover is
currently stretching along and just north of the I-44 corridor
along the leading edge of a subtle MCV wave embedded within the
more distinct mid-level trough in eastern Nebraska. Lift
associated with this wave has forced a few light showers along
the wave. A thermal boundary is placed over northern Kansas and
northern Missouri, which has started dropping south this
afternoon. These features will be the focus for storms today
through Saturday.

Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon through Saturday:

Ahead of the aforementioned leading edge of the MCV wave
(generally southeast of I-44, especially in the eastern Ozarks),
clear skies have allowed temperatures to reach the upper 80s and
lower 90s with dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s. This is
resulting in 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE. Lift along the wave as it moves
into this region may fire some scattered thunderstorms after 4-5
PM this afternoon (15-40% chance). Since shear is weak in this
region, any development would be scattered. On the other hand,
700 mb temps are a bit high (-10 C) which is providing some
capping to the environment. Therefore, development may be
stunted a bit if peak heating does not overlap with peak lift.
That said, any development would be capable of 60-70 mph
microbursts since low- level lapse rates are somewhat steep at
7-8 C/km, thermo profiles are inverted-Vs in short-term forecast
soundings, and microburst composite values in excess of 7.
Additionally, our in-house Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm
Index is highlighting values of 13-16 (moderate risk) for pulse
severe thunderstorms. This activity would diminish after 8-9 PM
as the sun disappears for the day.

Afterwards, the front in north Kansas and north Missouri will
drop a bit south as the tail-end of the MCV wave/boundary lifts
a bit back north. This will focus for new storm development
along a strengthening LLJ nose later this evening (after 7 PM)
along and north of I-44. Storm coverage will likely be greater
along this front (40-75% chance). With that said, mean flow from
west to east parallel to the boundary will mean storms will be
along a somewhat narrow band and train. So if you see rain,
you'll probably see a decent amount of rain. Severe storms will
also be possible with these storms as the environment continues
to consist of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE within a bit better
sheared effective shear environment of around 30 kts. Damaging
winds up to 60-70 mph will be the primary hazard, but a weak
tornado or two and hail up to quarters are also possible.

The past few days, we've seen "unforeseen" strong thunderstorms
lines move through during the morning. While model guidance
suggests the greatest severe risk being this afternoon and
evening instability and shear will remain through the entire
night and into tomorrow morning, so any healthy storm will have
the potential to be severe at anytime. Stay up with the
forecast!

So that said, the front continues to drop south Saturday and
will focus more thunderstorm development (potentially severe
with excessive rainfall) during the day just north of the MO/AR
border. The main mid-level wave will also be churning through
eastern Missouri, which may spark some storms in the eastern
Ozarks. However, greatest lift with the wave may be displaced
from the best instability of the day, focusing the best severe
chance in southern Missouri. Since the environment will not
change much, damaging winds up to 60-70 mph continue to be the
main hazard with any stronger storms.

Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Saturday:

Of additional concern is the flooding threat. A narrow band of
heavy training thunderstorms occurred last night from Maries to
Phelps to Dent, and into Reynolds/Iron Counties. This resulted
in up to 6-12 inches of rain creating some significant flash
flooding. Areas around this band of rainfall are under the gun
again tonight with a reinvigoration of the LLJ overtop the
sagging frontal boundary. As mentioned before, the thunderstorm
development will be in a narrow band, which means this may not
form over the same areas as last night. If it does, significant
flash flooding is possible as the area will already be
saturated. For that reason, this area (including
Maries/Phelps/Dent Counties) has been upgraded to a Moderate (3
of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall and flooding. If the band
does not set up in that area, flash flooding will still be
possible given a training signal with PWATs in excess of 1.8
inches leading to high rain rates. To account for the latest
training signal, the Flood Watch has been expended northwest
into west- central MO, with the time being extended to 7 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Relatively drier with near-normal temperatures next week:

An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the
southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the
area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s
(lower 90s toward later in the week) and lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. During this period, rain chances are much lower,
but given a bit of northeasterly flow beneath the high will be
present, some backdoor cold front action may spark a pulse-like few
showers and thunderstorms each day during the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

There is a 30% chance for scattered showers and storms early
Saturday into saturday evening. Otherwise, look for VFR
conditions and light winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ055>058-067>071-
     080>083-092-097-098-106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
346 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-112100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
346 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being damaging
winds up to 60 to 70 mph. Hail up to the size of half dollars,
and weak tornadoes are secondary hazards.

There is a Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) Risk for
excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding is also in place
for tonight. A Flood Watch was expanded to include the Truman Lake
and Lake of the Ozarks regions and remains in effect for the
eastern Ozarks through Saturday evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being damaging
winds up to 60 to 70 mph. Hail up to the size of quarters are
secondary hazards. Flash flooding continues to be possible through
Sunday with multiple rounds of precipitation expected over the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight for southwest
Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Price

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Pomona             36.88N 91.90W
07/10/2026  M65 MPH          Howell             MO   ASOS

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 1
            NE Pomona. Actual gusts was 65.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
806 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

MOZ106-110200-
Oregon MO-
806 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN OREGON COUNTY THROUGH
900 PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thayer, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thayer, Alton, Couch, Myrtle, and Wilderness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 9156 3683 9112 3650 9113 3650 9156
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 246DEG 30KT 3656 9149

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
859 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Pomona            36.82N 91.93W
07/10/2026                   Howell             MO   911 Call Center

            POMONA FIRE ADVISED THERE IS A BARN AND
            LIMBS DOWN. Time based on radar estimate.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
902 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 N Siloam Springs      36.88N 92.06W
07/10/2026                   Howell             MO   911 Call Center

            TREE DOWN ON STATE ROUTE AP JUST SOUTH OF
            COUNTY Road 5120. Time based on radar.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1012 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     Hail             4 W Sylvania            37.50N 94.09W
07/10/2026  E1.00 Inch       Barton             MO   Public

&&

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

MOZ066-077-078-089-110415-
Vernon MO-Cedar MO-Barton MO-Dade MO-
1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BARTON...
SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON AND NORTHWESTERN DADE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...

At 1028 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Sheldon to 12 miles east of Liberal to 6 miles
northwest of Lamar. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Sheldon, Jerico Springs, Lamar Heights, Irwin, Milford,
Wagoner, Iantha, Cedarville, and Sylvania.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9388 3756 9392 3744 9411 3753 9445
      3761 9438 3771 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 278DEG 29KT 3766 9426 3759 9428 3753 9438

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Titus