Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30-40% chance for storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday
  night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall
  generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and
  Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to
  60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards
  include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes.

- Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and
  rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring.

- 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with potential
  for, yet low confidence in locations of, severe and flooding
  risks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

We're beginning the night with clear skies and temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds have picked up some speed
since last night and are currently up to 10-15 mph. An MCV and
associated convection is currently making its way across eastern
Nebraska and Kansas. It is quickly losing steam as instability drops
off and the nocturnal inversion sets in. It is expected to continue
weakening as it begins to impact the SGF CWA in the next few hours.

Of course, the cloud cover, outflow boundaries, and overall impact
on the environment of this early morning activity will likely have
implications on the severe round of storms we are expecting later
today. Though reinitiation along the trailing boundary is expected
this afternoon, CAMs differ in both the timing and location of this
development. Some models indicate redevelopment later and farther
east than others due to their expectation of a more robust/longer-
lasting area/period of cool stable air from the morning convection.
The faster the morning activity and its associated cloud cover
dissipate, the earlier we may see thunderstorms this afternoon. The
early end of the window appears to be around 3-4 PM with most CAMs
firing redevelopment by 6-7 PM.

Storms appear to form along one or two semi-linear axes of
instability/convergence and sweep through the CWA from northwest to
southeast. Storms look to clear the southeast CWA boundary by
somewhere in the 12-3 AM timeframe. With direct support from the
LLJ, damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms,
especially in more organized linear and bowing segments. The hail
risk appears to be more limited with the more robust deep-layer
shear remaining in small pockets rather than becoming widespread.
Hodographs are short, and storms will likely collapse on themselves
before they become tall enough to deliver much in the way of hail.
With pockets of better shear, though, the tallest storms may be able
to produce a few larger hailstones up to the size of a quarter at
most.

Additionally, there is a low, conditional risk for weak
tornadoes and waterspouts. The storm activity would need to
sufficiently modify the environment to increase the low-level
shear and moisture content, which is of course difficult to
predict on the storm scale. For these reasons, the damaging wind
threat largely overshadows the hail and tornado threat.

Precipitable water values in forecast soundings are impressive, up
to 2-2.5", which approaches and even exceeds the climatological
max/record in the SPC sounding database. Plenty of instability and
the potential for training, along with these high PW values, have
prompted a Slight risk for excessive rainfall from SPC. While
widespread totals are likely to remain below 0.5 inches, areas that
experience the most mature storms and especially training storms may
receive 3+ inches of rain in a short time period. One hour FFG
ranges from 1.75"-3.00", and this environment will support the
potential for 1-3"/hr rain rates.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The boundary responsible for today's mess is progged to stall out
across the Ozarks for a couple of days, allowing widespread rain
chances up to ~60% through Saturday with lingering precipitation
into Sunday. With not much to move or modify things, marginal
chances for severe thunderstorms will underlay the PoPs each day. Of
course, with FFG likely being met in some places with just the first
day in this series of wet days, flash flooding will continue to be a
threat with additional rain through the weekend. WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks reflect this.

The good news is that the precipitation activity will quell the heat
for several days, and highs will largely remain in the upper 80s
through early next week. However, a signal for a return to
uncomfortable heat in the day 8-14 timeframe does exist.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

An area of thunderstorms this morning will most likely stay
north of the TAF sites but will be close enough to SGF that a
VCTS may be needed. Otherwise additional storm potential will
exist later today and tonight however confidence is low in
locations. Winds will remain light out of the south to
southwest. Low level wind shear is likely early this morning and
again tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
422 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-100930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
422 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Heat index values may reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
today and Friday, though cloud cover and storm chances limit
overall confidence in excessive heat.

There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
this morning into early afternoon. There is a Slight (2 of 5)
Risk for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening
with damaging winds as the primary threat and hail up to the size
of quarters and weak tornadoes as the secondary threat.

There is a 40 to 70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night with a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall
and localized flash flooding as some rainfall amounts could reach
3 to 5 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Widespread rain chances remain each day through the weekend. Although
there is considerable uncertainty in when each round of storms
occur Friday through Sunday, the environment could be favorable
for additional strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening in
central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Nelson