Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
205 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A localized corridor of thunderstorms across far southern MO
  will support flash flooding through early this morning. A
  Flood Watch is in effect for this corridor from McDonald
  county to Ozark county.

- Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return
  Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is Slight (2 of 4) risk
  for excessive rainfall that would support flash flooding.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) through late
  week, with an additional heavy rainfall and flooding
  potential. Cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This Morning:
Radar captures the extent of lingering showers and thunderstorms
across far southern MO this morning as a cold front slows sinks
south. Recent mesoscale trends suggest the front is stalling
into this area, and will support repeated rounds of
thunderstorms through this morning. As a result, a targeted
Flood Watch has been introduced for McDonald, Barry, Stone,
Taney, and Ozark counties in MO. Ample moisture is in place,
with PWATs around 1.9 to 2.1 inches. This will support efficient
rainfall rates upwards of 1 to 3 inches per a hour. The
experimental high- resolution Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) has
latched onto this heavy rainfall trend over southern MO,
suggesting rainfall amounts in this corridor of 2 of 4 inches,
with localize rainfall amounts up to 6 inches. A potential max
QPF scenario from WoFS even shows highly localized amounts in
the 6 to 10 inch range. This is a the high-end, worst case
scenario. One factor that remains unknown is how the MCS across
OK impacts this flood setup, and if it pulls the associated
west-east band of convection further south. This is not a
scenario we wanted to wait to see play out or not, so the
targeted watch has been put out. Considerable flash flooding may
occur if higher end amounts pan out, especially given local
terrain and basin characteristics in this area.

This Afternoon-Tonight:
Drier and cooler weather overspread the area behind the frontal
passage later today with highs in the middle to upper
70s/near80. This is anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below normal
for mid to late June. Light north-northeast winds with clouds
gradually clearing this evening. Lows fall into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Tuesday:
As we progress into Tuesday, northwest flow takes shape over the
region with a series of shortwaves progged to translate through
the area this week. This pattern will be characterized by a
stalled frontal boundary into northern AR. Isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%) return by Tuesday
morning and afternoon, with more widespread chances (60-80%)
into overnight Tuesday/Wednesday morning with an overnight MCS
diving southeast into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Wednesday:
By Wednesday morning, guidance depict the potential of an
overnight MCS tracking southeast through the area. There remains
some uncertainty on this MCS tracking through the area, though
recent trends do capture at least portions of the area being
clipped. This will be better resolved in subsequent forecast
updates. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance depicts persistent shower
and thunderstorms chances through the remainder of Wednesday
with a stalled boundary just south of the area. Strong low level
moisture advects north over this frontal boundary into
Wednesday, as gleaned by PWATs of 1.6 to 1.8 over southern MO.
Given the increasing confidence in more widespread rainfall,
potentially heavy at times, WPC has highlight portions of the
area in Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on
Wednesday. Additional details will be captured over the next 24
to 48 hours, though the trend does suggest an increasing
potential for flash flooding in the area. This is especially
true given antecedent conditions, with elevated streamflows and
saturated soils.

Thursday-Sunday:
As we get into the later part of the week, an active pattern
remains in place across. Ensemble guidance vary on timing and
location of shortwaves, though the general consensus is for the
region to see persistent rain chances (30-60%) through Friday.
An associated heavy rainfall and flooding threat may accompany
each round. This pattern will feature cooler temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s this week.

By next weekend, guidance hints at a potential pattern change
with the jet stream becoming suppressed further north with a
ridge building over the region. This would suggest a warm up in
the forecast, with highs into the upper 80s near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A cold front will sag southward past the terminals early this
morning. Winds will be light and generally from the north to
northeast. Low stratus and fog over central MO will advect
southward and bring MVFR visibility and MVFR to IFR ceilings.
Surface wind speeds are forecast to increase slightly by mid-
morning which should mix out any fog or mist while leaving lower
ceilings in place into late this morning or early afternoon.
Thereafter look for VFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...WFO Duluth

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
335 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-230845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
335 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

A localized corridor of thunderstorms across far southern Missouri
will support flash flooding through early this morning. A Flood
Watch is in effect for this corridor from McDonald county to Ozark
county. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher
amounts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return Tuesday
night into Wednesday. There is Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive
rainfall that would support flash flooding.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) through late
week, with an additional heavy rainfall and flooding potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Perez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

MOZ097-105-220530-
Ozark MO-Howell MO-
1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OZARK AND SOUTHERN
HOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1205 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Gainesville, or 21 miles west of West Plains,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains, South Fork, Brandsville, Lanton, Siloam Springs,
Sycamore, Dora, Pottersville, Caulfield, Zanoni, and Tecumseh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3657 9226 3666 9240 3680 9234 3679 9210
      3681 9209 3680 9166 3679 9166 3679 9168
      3650 9168 3650 9174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0505Z 279DEG 36KT 3675 9225

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hatch