Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Springfield, MO

217 
WGUS73 KSGF 181352
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
852 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

MOC167-181402-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-260618T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Polk MO-
852 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9321 3749 9361 3769 9361 3769 9321

$$

PC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
101 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A scattered band of storms will continue for the rest of the
  overnight hours into early this morning. Locally heavy
  rainfall and maybe a strong storm or two will be possible.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms on this
  afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-44. Large
  hail to the size of quarters, damaging winds up to 50 mph, and
  localized heavy rainfall possible.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early next week
  and there is still uncertainty of the exact track of the
  system and rainfall amounts for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

An outflow boundary pushed south through much of the area
Wednesday evening from convection that developed across central
Missouri. The outflow has stalled and is washing out across
southern Missouri as it gets further from the upper level
support that is moving across Iowa. Surface winds are returning
to the south now north of the outflow and dewpoints and
temperatures were not impacted much. Therefore, some MUCAPE
remains in place across region and scattered bands of storms are
developing early this morning from west central Missouri into
central Missouri within the uncapped MUCAPE and with lift from
the upper level shortwave trough to the north. Storm motions and
and 0-3km bulk shear vectors are both from the west to east,
this could set up some training of storms. A surface cold front
is currently located just north of the area and will slowly move
south into this morning and be out of the area by early
afternoon. As the front starts to moves south, the storms will
move also start to slowly move south but the storm motion will
continue to move to the east, so training of storms will remain
possible with the convection through the rest of the overnight
hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible where multiple
storms can track over the same location overnight as
precipitable water values are currently 1.75-2". Widespread
flooding is not expected as coverage in any training will be
localized, but where training sets up there could be a flash
flooding risk early this morning. The storms are currently along
Highway 54, but will slowly shift south overnight.

Dry air has moved into the area in the 500-250mb range but
better moisture remains in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Deep layer shear is around 30kts with MUCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg and
gradually weaken to the south. Therefore, expect storms to
continue to develop and shift south through the rest of the
overnight hours with the moisture in the lower levels. The drier
air aloft may limit how tall and strong storms get, but with
enough lift, a few stronger storms would be possible. Overall
the severe risk is low, but there could be a few strong storms
with winds to 50 mph and hail up to the size of quarters through
the rest of the overnight hours.

An upper level shortwave will move through the region this
afternoon and evening. This activity will be behind the cold
front and instability my be limited overall especially north of
I-44 where mainly showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder
will occur as lift with the trough moves through. Some weak
MUCAPE develops south of I-44 this afternoon and evening as deep
layer shear increases. Overall the severe risk is low, but a
few stronger storms will be possible with hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts to 50 mph the main risk. There could be
some locally heavy rainfall with storms but overall the flooding
risk will be low today.

A slightly cooler and less humid air mass will be into the area
behind the front. Highs will likely only warm into the 70s this
afternoon, as cloud and rain chances occur at times throughout
the day. Lows tonight into Friday morning will drop into the
middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Surface high pressure will move over the region on Friday with
highs in the lower to middle 80s across the area. An upper level
ridge will start to build east into the Plains by Saturday.
Warm air advection will begin to move northeast into the area
from the southwest late Friday into Saturday. A drier air mass
will be in place but a few showers and isolated rumbles of
thunder could be possible but overall coverage should be
limited.

Saturday evening storms are expected to develop across the
northern/central Plains and move to the east/southeast. Models
differ on the exact track of this convection. Some move it
across Iowa and northern Missouri Saturday night into Sunday
while others bring it south into the area. Looking at winds and
storm motions, storms will likely move more easterly with a
slight southeasterly movement on the southern end. So, the
further to the north storms develop the more likely the better
chances remain to the north, the further south storms develop
into the Central Plains on Saturday, the better chances for
convection to move across the region. If a complex of storms can
move over the area, there could be a low strong to severe risk
with hail and winds the main risks along with a localized
flooding risk. At this time the track of the storms will be
dependent on exactly where storms develop so confidence is still
low with rainfall amounts for the area Saturday night and
Sunday. A front will likely move south through the region later
Sunday into early Monday and will bring additional showers and
storm chances to the area but may be more scattered in nature.

The ensemble members show the potential for another upper level
disturbance to move through the region during the middle to end
of next week, but there remains differences in the timing and
track of this system with 20 to 40% shower and thunderstorm
chances for the area during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across the
area tonight into Thursday morning. MVFR conditions can be
expected with the convection overnight, and there is a low
chance for some localized IFR conditions at times.

Light northerly winds will occur overnight and will pick up
slightly during the day on Thursday. Some scattered showers and
may be a rumble of thunder will be possible Thursday afternoon
and evening across the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
146 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190700-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
146 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered bands of thunderstorms will continue to slowly move
south through the area early this morning and should push south of
the area by the mid mornings. A few strong storms will be possible
with hail up to the size of quarters, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and
heavy rainfall and localized flooding the main risks.

Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20 to 40 percent) will
occur again this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms with
hail and gusty winds will be possible with this activity mainly
along and south of I-44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early
next week. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible depending on
the exact track of the system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1029 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

MOZ079-080-090-180400-
Dallas MO-Polk MO-Greene MO-
1029 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS...SOUTHERN
POLK AND NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1029 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morrisville, or 9 miles southwest of Bolivar, moving southeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake, Fair Grove, Walnut Grove, Pleasant Hope, Morrisville,
Aldrich, Olive, Sacville, Eudora, Brighton, and Foose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 9358 3755 9362 3762 9317 3743 9307
      3735 9308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 303DEG 28KT 3750 9353

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Soria

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

KSZ097-180615-
Crawford KS-
1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CRAWFORD COUNTY THROUGH 115 AM
CDT...

At 1250 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hepler, or 8 miles northwest of Girard, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg, Frontenac, Girard, Arma, Cherokee, Mulberry, Chicopee,
Franklin, Arcadia, Hepler, Beulah, Opolis, Croweburg, Greenbush,
Yale, Ringo, Lone Oak, Farlington, Brazilton, and Polk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 9499 3767 9462 3734 9462 3734 9480
      3752 9509 3756 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 296DEG 21KT 3760 9493

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Soria