Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Springfield, MO

065 
WGUS73 KSGF 282323
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

MOC153-213-282333-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-260528T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ozark MO-Taney MO-
623 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
WESTERN OZARK AND EASTERN TANEY COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT Friday for 
portions of south central and southwest Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 9302 3681 9291 3681 9286 3681 9283
      3681 9276 3650 9260 3650 9264 3650 9275
      3650 9277 3650 9281 3650 9284 3650 9285
      3650 9286 3650 9288 3650 9289 3650 9298
      3650 9299 3681 9315

$$

EW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon and
  evening. Highest rain chances south and west of a Warsaw to
  Salem line. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall mainly for
  far southwestern Missouri.

- Moderate to high rain chances again Friday into Saturday.
  Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized flooding
  for locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A stalled upper level low over the western CONUS remained the
focus in the national satellite imagery while showers and storms
moved over the Ozarks region this morning. Several pieces of
upper level energy moving through the upper level flow and
across the Plains, which in conjunction with another upper level
trough across the Great Lakes and a slow northward moving
surface low moving from the Red River into southern Nebraska
through today, will help to produce showers and isolated
thunderstorms in a deep moist airmass.

Low and middle level moisture was continuing to filter into the
region from the gulf, helping to produce the showers. This was
noted on the 00Z SGF sounding with 1.34 in of precipitable water
on the sounding. thanks to the depth of the moisture, cloud
cover through today, along with rain chances will work to keep
temperatures in the 70s for most of the region. Portions of
central Missouri into northern Missouri will be warmer with
temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, where cloud cover may
be less with more sunshine into the afternoon.

With this rather stuck pattern in place the trailing front from
the lifting surface low will be nearly stacked into the middle
levels. This was noted by model depictions along with strong
moisture fetch into the Ozarks from the Gulf. Weak flow with
0-10km winds less than 20kts remain through today out of the
south.

Latest WPC excessive rain outlook continues to impact only the
far southwestern portions of the Ozarks, however, there is good
consensus for scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms through this afternoon into the evening across
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, especially southwest of
Springfield. CAMS and other short range guidance/models show
localized pockets of 1-2 inches, though where storms occur,
higher amounts may be possible. There was little change in the
rainfall amounts from the previous forecast, and looking at the
rainfall estimates across the region over the past 7 days, some
locations might be prone to localized flooding if a storm were
to move over the area. However, confidence in this is low that
this will occur, or if flooding does occur it will be rather
localized. This is based of the rather patchy nature of the
rainfall total forecast from the models. For now, did not
consider a flood watch based on the limited confidence of
flooding.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Little has changes in the expectations for Friday. The surface
low still looks to lift slowly east languishing over Ozarks.
This will allow for additional rounds of showers and storms.
Rainfall amounts from this round remain uncertain as the showery
nature expected will likely produce widely varying rainfall
amounts across the region. With continued high moisture content
in the atmosphere, weak mean flow, localized flooding will be a
concern, especially with additional rainfall expected for
Saturday as the low continues its slow progression east. Rain
chances are lower Saturday than the previous Today or Friday,
but the multi-day nature of the rainfall may be enough to begin
getting more flooding.

Rain chances do begin to taper off slowly Sunday into early
next week before the region transitions into a drier pattern by
Wednesday. This will occur as the upper low out west begins to
lift north into the northern plains. This will bring rising
heights and decreasing rain chances for the area and would
support warming middle level, 850mb temperatures and warmer
surface temperatures for the middle to later portions of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Showers, low ceilings and isolated storms will impact the
region today through tonight. Where showers move over the areas
airfields, ceilings and visibilities will become MVFR to
isolated times of IFR, especially if storms move over the
airfield.

Surface winds will be southerly and from 5 to 10 mph accept
where storms impact the terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
457 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
457 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon and
  evening. Highest rain chances south and west of a Warsaw to
  Salem line. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall mainly for
  far southwestern Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

- Moderate to high rain chances Friday and Saturday. Marginal
  risk for excessive rainfall and localized flooding for locations
  that see repeated rounds of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch