Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Springfield, MO

726 
WGUS73 KSGF 190055
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
755 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

MOC029-131-169-190105-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-260519T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Camden MO-Miller MO-Pulaski MO-
755 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN, SOUTHERN MILLER AND NORTHWESTERN PULASKI 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT Tuesday for 
portions of southeast Kansas and Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 9260 3823 9220 3816 9220 3816 9218
      3815 9218 3814 9218 3813 9218 3809 9218
      3802 9219 3802 9218 3800 9218 3796 9241
      3790 9270

$$

PC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for thunderstorms with heavy
  rainfall that may result in flash flooding this afternoon and
  another round overnight. A Flood Watch in effect for an area
  north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor.
  Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches.

- A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms this afternoon. Primary hazard is damaging wind
  gusts and large hail to the size of quarters.

- A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms overnight
  tonight into Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms expected to
  quickly move through the area, with the primary hazard being
  damaging wind gusts. There is a lower chance for a few, brief
  tornadoes.

- Additional rainfall chances (40-70%) mid to late week along
  with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows southwest flow aloft with a strong shortwave
over Colorado. There is a compact shortwave currently moving
into Arkansas. While the low level jet has weakened, it remains
out of the southwest around 35-40kts over the area. An outflow
boundary from overnight storms was beginning to wash out however
it remains west to east from about Barton County east/northeast
to Phelps county. A moist and unstable airmass continues over
the area with the 12Z sounding measuring 2500j/kg MU CAPE and
0-6km shear around 30kts. Thunderstorms continue to develop
along and north of that outflow boundary, especially in the
Flood Watch area. Temperatures varied drastically with 60s
along/north of Highway 54 to lower 80s further south.

Thunderstorm/Flood Threat This Afternoon: Latest meso trends and
12z HREF/REFS supports continued development of scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern half of the area.
Given the CAPE/Shear combo, a few severe storms are possible
with large hail and damaging winds the most likely hazards.
Flash flooding will be a concern in the Flood Watch area,
especially locations that have received several inches of
rainfall already. There should be a decreasing trend in storm
coverage closer to 6-9pm.

Round of thunderstorms Overnight/Tuesday: Confidence is high
that significant severe storms will develop in Kansas this
afternoon and evening along a cold front and an area of high
shear and high instability. The storms look to quickly grow
upscale into a QLCS and will expand southwest towards Oklahoma.
Latest guidance suggests that the QLCS will move southeast and
enter our southeast Kansas and western Missouri counties shortly
after midnight. ML CAPE around 1500j/kg and 0-3km shear around
30kts will allow for the potential for damaging winds to be the
most likely hazard as this line of storms moves southeast
through the area. We will need to monitor for any line segments
that can surge/pivot to the east-northeast as there will be a
potential for a brief tornado, especially locations west of
Highway 65. There remains uncertainty with respect to the exact
timing of the line as it moves through the area however it
should be along the I-44 corridor in the 4am to 8am time frame.
The instability levels will continue to decrease overnight
therefore an overall weakening trend seems likely as storms move
southeast of I-44 early Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1-3 inches is possible with the storms overnight. We
did extend the Flood Watch until 18Z Tuesday to account for the
next round of rainfall.

The remainder of Tuesday is uncertain as there are questions
about how fast the front moves through the area during the day.
There are a few CAMS that suggest that storms intensify during
the afternoon, mainly southeast of I-44. Large hail and damaging
winds would be the most likely hazards if storms
redevelop/intensify Tuesday afternoon. Considerable uncertainty
exists with additional updates likely. Temps will also begin to
fall quickly behind the front with 60s in some areas by late
Tuesday afternoon. Additional post frontal showers look likely
Tuesday evening as additional energy moves through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Additional Rain Chances/Cooler Weather Mid/Late Week: Ensemble
data continues to suggests that the overall upper level pattern
west/southwest with several disturbances moving through the
region. The front that moves through Tuesday looks to stay south
of the area Wednesday however given the flow, additional precip
chances are possible south of I-44. The front does appear to
attempt to lift north into the area Thursday and persist through
Saturday. Precip chances currently from the NBM are rather
pessimistic with chances greater than 50% at times, especially
closer to Thursday and Friday. Currently not seeing a signal for
severe storms or flooding. Temps will remain cooler than
previous days, especially Wednesday with slowly climbing temps
closer to 80 degrees by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in and around the
TAF sites this afternoon, especially JLN and SGF. Otherwise
ceilings around 3000ft will be likely this afternoon. Winds will
likely remain out of the south with gusts around 25-30kts. Low
level wind shear is likely at SGF and JLN overnight. There will
be a line of thunderstorms that moves into the area after 08z
and continues through Tuesday morning. Confidence is increasing
that winds will turn west to northwesterly towards the end of
the TAF period along with ceilings dropping into at least MVFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     078>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
207 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

- A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for thunderstorms with heavy
  rainfall that may result in flash flooding this afternoon and
  another round overnight. A Flood Watch in effect for an area
  north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor.
  Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches.

- A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms this afternoon. Primary hazard is damaging wind
  gusts and large hail to the size of quarters.

- A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms overnight
  tonight into Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms expected to
  quickly move through the area, with the primary hazard being
  damaging wind gusts. There is a lower chance for a few, brief
  tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

- A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing on Tuesday morning.
  There is uncertainty with how quickly the front clears the area
  and will determine if we see any severe thunderstorm redevelopment
  Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and again
overnight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Hastain             38.20N 93.18W
05/18/2026                   Benton             MO   Dept of Highways

            State Highway V is closed due to flooding at
            Deer Creek.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Knobby              38.17N 93.10W
05/18/2026                   Benton             MO   Dept of Highways

            State Highway DD is closed due to flooding
            at Knobby Creek.

&&

MB