Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1006 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms may remain during the rest of the overnight hours
  as they move northeast out of southeast KS.

- Severe thunderstorm redevelopment likely Monday afternoon and
  evening for locations east of Highway 65, with a greater
  Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk east of Highway 63. Large hail to the
  size of baseballs, damaging winds to 70 mph, and tornadoes
  are all possible.

- Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
  afternoon in far south-central Missouri. Large hail is the
  main hazard with a secondary damaging wind risk.

- Localized flooding may occur with any training storms this
  weekend into Tuesday. A corridor of slightly higher flooding
  potential could develop along and north of Highway 54 tonight
  into Monday.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures Wednesday
  and onward.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 937 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Band of elevated thunderstorms continues across central MO with
tail end riding the instability gradient south of the warm
front. At the present time the greater threat is with the
training cells leading to a localized flash flood threat.

Models are supportive of this band diminishing as it moves east
of the CWA, however also recognize that ML CAPE gradient of
1500-2500 Joules is not too far south of existing convective
activity so will need to continue monitoring for a hail/wind
threat until the activity advects out of the forecast area.

Attention then turns to this afternoon when a significant severe
weather threat exists. The 12z SGF sounding offers a near
textbook sounding for a severe weather outbreak...with SFC -1KM
SRH of over 500 m2/s2 and the SFC-6 KM bulk shear of 52 knots.
The Significant Tornado Parameter is also noteworthy at around
5.

With an EML just below the level of free convection...isolated
elevated storms are expected to redevelop across central MO
southwestward into far southwest Missouri by early
afternoon...with coverage increasing from Highway 65 eastward
during the mid afternoon as the EML is overcome and SBCAPES
climb above 3000.

Also want to note the SPC upgrade to a moderate threat over
areas along east of Highway 63 includes a rare "double hatch"
impact indicator reserved for expectations of EF2 or greater
tornadoes.  Hail to baseballs is also highlighted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

An upper low has lifted northeast out of Saskatchewan into
northern Manitoba. Mid-level shortwave energy was pushing into
the central plains and has initiated additional severe storms
over Kansas. Storm motions were lifting northeast and the
eastern sections of the convection over Kansas may affect our
far western CWA during the remainder of the overnight hours. At
the surface, a warm front was bisecting the CWA with
temperatures still in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s.

Strong to severe storms likely today: Mid level shortwave will
begin to track northeast and across Missouri today. Surface low
and a cold front slightly ahead of the mid level shortwave will
also track across the area today and will interact with
increasing instability throughout the day. Storms are likely to
reinitiate after midday as the instability increases ahead of
the boundary. The environment ahead of the front looks favorable
for supercells to develop with all modes of severe storms
possible including very large hail and tornadoes. The most
favorable area over our CWA for severe storms looks to be along
and east of the U.S. 65 corridor where an enhanced risk(3 of 5)
exits. Most of the severe storms should clear the area by the
mid to late evening. Localized flooding will be possible for any
storms that can move across the same locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Tuesday: Behind the mid level shortwave, we remain in
southwesterly flow which will keep the front from making it too
far to the south, possibly stalling over northern AR or southern
MO. Additional convection will be possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening across southern sections of Missouri. A large hail and
damaging wind risk would be the main risks with any severe
storms on Tuesday.

A drier air mass will then move into the area on Wednesday
as the cold front shifts south of the area. This should keep the
remainder of the long term mostly dry with the main qpf
associated with a late week system remaining to our south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

For the 12z TAFS, convection out of the area (for now). As the
mid-level shortwave begins to kick out to the northeast, a
surface low and front will track across the area. Redevelopment
of storms will be possible along the front mainly this afternoon
and evening most likely east of JLN but have included prob30s
for SGF/BBG with scattered development expected. Could initially
see some MVFR ceilings this morning, but should become VFR by
mid morning. If storms move over the terminal locations this
afternoon/evening some MVFR/IFR will be possible with the
storms. Winds will be quite gusty today ahead of the front with
gusts up to 30 kts possible and will veer from southerly to
southwesterly, eventually to northerly behind the front this
evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

MESOSCALE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
415 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-280915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
415 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Enhanced tornado risk.
  Enhanced hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop again this
afternoon. There is the potential for significant severe weather
hazards along and east of the U.S. 65 corridor this afternoon and
evening. Hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds in excess
of 70 mph and tornadoes will all be possible. Some large tornadoes
will also be possible. If storms can train across the same
locations, then a localized flood risk will exist.

Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will also be possible outside of any
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A lingering slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe storms exists across
portions of south-central Missouri Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The main hazard with these storms is large hail.

Any slow-moving or training storms could result in a localized
flooding risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight for
areas along and east of the U.S. 65 corridor.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
702 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     Hail             3 SSE Lebanon           37.64N 92.65W
04/26/2026  M1.75 Inch       Laclede            MO   Public

            Image received of golf ball sized hail just
            south of the Lebanon airport. Time estimated
            via radar.

&&

BIP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
704 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     Hail             2 SSW Lebanon           37.65N 92.68W
04/26/2026  M2.00 Inch       Laclede            MO   Public

            Image received of 2 inch hail. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

BIP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
707 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     Hail             5 N Phillipsburg        37.62N 92.80W
04/26/2026  M3.00 Inch       Laclede            MO   Public

            Image received of 3 inch hail. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

BIP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
717 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     Hail             2 SSE El Dorado Springs 37.86N 94.01W
04/26/2026  E2.75 Inch       Cedar              MO   Public

            Image of baseball sized hail 2 miles
            southeast of El Dorado Springs. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

BIP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
953 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MOZ055-056-271530-
Benton MO-Morgan MO-
953 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM CDT...

At 953 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cole Camp, or 14 miles west of Versailles, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Versailles, Cole Camp, Stover, Barnett, Syracuse, Edmonson, Florence,
and Crockerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3843 9263 3835 9264
      3829 9331 3853 9319 3853 9307 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1453Z 242DEG 37KT 3846 9311

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Melto