Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
149 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast has been updated.

Increasing confidence for afternoon thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Heavy downpours likely and possibly strong
gusty winds in the stronger storms.

Rain chances likely to continue into next week with cooler
temperatures on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe weather expected across south central Virginia
and north central North carolina today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe weather expected across south central Virginia
and north central North carolina today.

Two frontal boundaries are currently draped across the area today,
with a backdoor front currently positioned along the I-64 corridor
slowly sliding south and west into the south central Virginia
Piedmont. A cold front from the west is also making progress through
NW North Carolina and extreme SW Virginia early this afternoon as
well. As these two fronts zipper closed on each other, enough
forcing for ascent will trigger thunderstorm activity across much of
the region. Currently SPC mesoanalysis has much of the area under
500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE, with near 700-1000 J/Kg of DCAPE. The
SBCAPE will help with thunderstorm growth along the aforementioned
frontal boundaries, and the DCAPE will aid in strong downburst
formation. As downbursts move through the area, they will likely
produce strong damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, that may cause
downed trees, power poles, and damage to small structures. Any
downed trees and power poles could lead to localized power outages
across the area today.

This mornings KRNK upper air sounding measured a PWAT of 1.18
inches; however, RAP mesoanalysis from SPC's mesoanalysis website
has PWATs currently at 1.4 inches across a majority of the forecast
area. Normally this type of frontal boundary collision combined with
PWATs this high would lead to a higher flash flood potential across
the area; however, with much of the area in extreme drought and
desperately needing rainfall, the threat for flash flooding is low.
Much of the areas FFG for the 1 and 3 hour timeframe is in the 3-4
inch range. While this isn't impossible to see today, any rainfall
at these totals will likely be absorbed by parched local plant life,
and to fill empty streams across the region. In summary, while it's
possible to see locally heavy rainfall amounts in the 3-4 inch range
today from these thunderstorms, the overall threat remains low given
the ongoing extreme drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances continue into next week.

By Friday, a surface high to our northeast will wedge into the
mountains, offering cooler conditions for Friday and Saturday.
(Friday will be the coolest with highs in the mid-50s to lower 60s).
While the cold front will be well to the south by Friday morning, a
surface low pressure system over the Mississippi will drag it back
northward as a warm front and grant another round of showers for the
area. The influence of the wedge will mean much of the storm
development will be elevated. Cloud cover and lack of surface
heating will prevent any serious convection but the warm front and
continual stream of moisture at the 850mb level will provide ideal
conditions for precipitation. It is still difficult to know how much
rain will fall as much of the shower development will depend on the
speed of the warm front and its duration in our area. The North
Carolina counties look to be the favored region for rainfall amounts
with totals reaching one inch between Friday afternoon and Sunday
morning. Areas elsewhere may receive much less, between 0.25-0.67".
Flood concerns are also low for this part of the forecast unless
there is serious training over a specific location and assuming and
rain from Thursday does not overperform. Nevertheless, PWAT values
are to hold steady between 1.5-1.75" into next week which will allow
for some heavier rainfall rates in some storms.

By early next week, the warm front should be to our north and the
CAD eroded. Warm air will return with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s and dew points will be around the 50s and 60s. There
may be a brief quiet period in the middle of next week,
depending on how long it takes for the warm front to progress,
before another frontal system approaches from the north towards
the end of next week. This front will also be a triggering
mechanism for storm development and keep the rain chances going.
While the rain is excellent for the drought, more attention may
be needed for possible flooding threats as several inches of
rainfall may have fallen by the time the cold front arrives.
Some models also hint the front may stall over the region which
may prolong the precipitation trend. Confidence on flooding is
still low given how far out this event is and it highly depends
on how much rain falls before then. Once the front moves
through, higher pressure moves in and should put a stop to the
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are currently disappearing across the area as
showers and thunderstorms start to fill in over the region. MVFR to
IFR CIGs and VSBYs will likely move in later this afternoon and
evening with shower and thunderstorm activity before lowering CIGs
from the wedge settle over the region starting around 00 UTC Friday.
These CIGs look to remain in the IFR to LIFR levels through the end
of the TAF period at all terminals as wedging remains in place for
much of the weekend. Along with low CIGs, winds will predominantly
be out of the northeast/east across all terminals at around 5-10
knots, with gusts in the 15-20 knot range at times. With warm moist
air riding over the shallow cool air at the surface across the
region, light on and off rain showers are expected through much of
the overnight hours Thursday and daytime hours on Friday after
Thursday afternoon's thunderstorm activity. These showers look to
continue through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Chances of showers and low CIGs look to persist through the weekend.
This will keep ceilings at MVFR to IFR levels for most terminals.
Warm southerly flow in the mid levels riding over cool northeast
flow at the surface will keep these restrictions in place during
this timeframe, as well as provide several opportunities for patchy
fog at times. Guidance looks to keep daily rain chances and clouds
in the forecast through much of next week, with afternoon convection
returning starting Monday. These conditions may lead to poor flight
conditions for much of next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CG/EB
AVIATION...EB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
210 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VAZ007-009-010-WVZ042>044-507-508-221815-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
210 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-221815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
210 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and
evening. The main threats are damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
252 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VAZ033-034-211915-
Franklin VA-Bedford VA-
252 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 315
PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Burnt Chimney, or near Boones Mill, moving east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail and winds up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Moneta...
Chamblissburg...
Burnt Chimney...
Northwest Smith Mountain Lake...
Goodview...
Westlake Corner...
and Wirtz.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 7961 3708 7964 3705 7992 3714 7995
      3715 7994 3716 7991 3718 7991 3718 7990
      3720 7989 3729 7972
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 250DEG 17KT 3713 7985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VAZ034-044-211930-
Bedford VA-Pittsylvania VA-
301 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pittsville, or near Gretna, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gretna...
Climax...
Pittsville...
and Ajax.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

If on or near Leesville Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 7946 3692 7961 3710 7952 3710 7942
      3706 7944 3706 7941 3709 7940 3709 7939
      3710 7938 3703 7925
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 216DEG 11KT 3697 7948

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

NCZ020-211930-
Yadkin NC-
303 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
YADKIN COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 303 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Shacktown, or near Yadkinville, moving northeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Wind gusts may knock over loose objects.

Locations impacted include...
Yadkinville...
East Bend...
Nebo...
Courtney...
Huntsville...
Brooks Crossroads...
and Shacktown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8085 3622 8075 3626 8046 3622 8043
      3621 8045 3614 8044 3612 8046 3612 8049
      3611 8051 3608 8051 3605 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 211DEG 11KT 3611 8061

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VAZ034-045-211945-
Campbell VA-Bedford VA-
317 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Altavista, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Altavista...
and Evington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 7930 3712 7932 3712 7933 3714 7934
      3714 7935 3713 7934 3713 7935 3715 7942
      3732 7934 3724 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 209DEG 8KT 3717 7933

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VAZ034-212000-
Bedford VA-
340 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Huddleston, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huddleston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

If on or near Leesville Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 7944 3706 7948 3704 7948 3707 7955
      3721 7950 3716 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 208DEG 14KT 3711 7946

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
346 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VAZ033-044-212015-
Franklin VA-Pittsylvania VA-
346 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND
EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Penhook, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Penhook...
Union Hall...
North Shore...
Southern Smith Mountain Lake...
Ajax...
and Westlake Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7978 3714 7967 3713 7965 3710 7964
      3709 7961 3708 7962 3706 7959 3704 7960
      3703 7956 3705 7954 3702 7949 3704 7948
      3703 7946 3702 7947 3703 7948 3701 7949
      3688 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 209DEG 7KT 3699 7964

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PW