Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
428 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation. Also did a brief update to the forecast for
this evening to account for more showers/storm coverage than
originally forecast. Peak wind gust of 35 kts at roanoke with
shower that moved through late afternoon. DCAPE is running high,
so showers and storms will have gusty outflows until loss of
daytime heating.

After today, an increasing severe storm threat by Tuesday of
this coming week. Daily afternoon/evening storms to continue.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather will persist through next week with daily
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather will persist through next week
with daily thunderstorm chances.

A rather stagnant pattern will remain in place with daily
chances of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. A large ridge over
the Atlantic with a subtle trough across the Great Lakes
continues to supply persistent southerly flow, advecting a warm
and moist airmass into the region. Forcing will remain weak, so
daily storms will mainly develop as a result of differential
heating and terrain. Precipitable Water values continue to be in
excess of 1.50" so rainfall will be very efficient in storms,
and localized flooding could occur if any storm persist over the
same area for any length of time.

By tomorrow, ridging over the Atlantic will begin to shift
south and weaken as a broad upper trough begins to push south
over the Mid Atlantic. With slightly better upper support
leading to better forcing in addition to modest shear and
moderate/strong instability, a more organized storm threat may
be possible Tue-Thu. Along with any severe threat, a flash
flooding threat will persist into next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered Thunderstorms over the mountains are producing
20-35kt surface wind gusts this evening. Wind directions within
the vicinity of these storms has been highly variable due to
outflow winds. Activity is expected to persist through 22Z/6PM,
then gradually dissipate with loss of daytime heating.

After 00Z/8PM, anticipating mainly VFR conditions for most,
aside from mountain valley fog developing for a few hours
Monday morning, between 06Z and 14Z, then returning to VFR.
Highest confidence for fog for KBLF and KLWB, possibly also at
KBCB but confidence is not as high there. Areas that receive
rain this afternoon could also see fog Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The daily threat of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms,
with overnight/morning fog in the mountains continues through much
of next week. More widespread coverage of storms, with some strong
to severe, in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Gusty winds
possible during the second half of the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
140 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

NCZ005-006-VAZ007-010-011-013-014-018>020-022>024-033>035-043>047-
058-059-WVZ042>044-507-508-101745-
Rockingham-Caswell-Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
140 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a risk of severe weather on Tuesday due to the hazard of
damaging wind gusts. In addition, heavy rainfall rates may accompany
showers and lead to localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Tuesday.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ009-012-015>017-032-101745-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Smyth-Wythe-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-
140 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather today due to damaging
wind gusts. In addition, heavy rainfall rates may accompany showers
and lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a risk of severe weather on Tuesday due to the hazard of
damaging wind gusts. In addition, heavy rainfall rates may accompany
showers and lead to localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
507 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VAZ033-092145-
Franklin VA-
507 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 507 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rocky Mount, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount...
Penhook...
Burnt Chimney...
Western Smith Mountain Lake...
Union Hall...
Sontag...
and North Shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 8001 3711 7994 3715 7967 3712 7965
      3711 7964 3689 7965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 272DEG 8KT 3704 7990

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
543 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VAZ033-034-044-092215-
Franklin VA-Bedford VA-Pittsylvania VA-
543 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD AND EAST CENTRAL
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 542 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Western Smith Mountain Lake, or near Penhook, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Penhook...
Smith Mountain Lake State Park...
Western Smith Mountain Lake...
Union Hall...
North Shore...
Southern Smith Mountain Lake...
and Ajax.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 7978 3710 7973 3711 7944 3690 7951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 282DEG 8KT 3705 7971

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
544 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VAZ018-023-024-092215-
Botetourt VA-Craig VA-Rockbridge VA-
544 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN CRAIG...SOUTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE AND BOTETOURT COUNTIES
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 544 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oriskany, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buchanan...
Troutville...
Eagle Rock...
Oriskany...
Fincastle...
Nace...
and Arcadia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 7954 3752 7951 3749 7954 3750 7956
      3748 7958 3746 7964 3748 7965 3748 7968
      3745 7972 3741 7978 3737 7992 3757 8013
      3769 7995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 325DEG 13KT 3762 7994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

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