Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
115 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
April Fools...nothing has changed! Or did it?

Small area of a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms have been added
for the far northeastern part of the forecast area. Still
expecting more of the organized thunderstorm activity to be
north of Interstate 64, with more pulse, diurnally driven type
storms along and west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Wind and hail are
the primary hazards.

2. Above normal temperatures and near daily chances for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Wind and hail are
the primary hazards.

Thunderstorm activity has already been ongoing, especially over West
Virginia so far today, making its way eastward into the area. A cold
oriented southwest to northeast across the OH Valley into the
northern Mid Atlantic will sag south through the day, serving as a
focal point for continued shower and thunderstorm development.
Stronger westerly flow aloft and lift exist near the front, as shown
by slightly stronger 0-6km bulk shear on the IAD 12Z sounding
than on the 12Z RNK sounding. As such, expecting more
organization to storms farther north across northern VA,
generally north of Interstate 64. Dewpoints already in the mid
to upper 50s, some low 60s, exist around the CWA, as
southwesterly flow continues to advect low level moisture into
the region. Ample sunshine today, especially in the east, will
promote increasing instability, with forecast SBCAPE between
1500 to 2000 J/kg by the mid afternoon. This will prompt
additional thunderstorm development, but more of the pulse type
variety, mainly driven by orographic lift across the Blue Ridge
and daytime heating. Cooler air aloft supports a hail threat,
along with damaging winds, as DCAPE is forecast to near 900
J/kg. This is also shown by the CSU machine learning
probabilities, highlighting a large area of wind and hail probs
across the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.

CAM guidance depicts discrete cells initially to the north,
closer proximity to the front, then becoming more like clusters
moving with the motion of the front. Can't rule out of some of
those stronger storms reaching parts of our CWA in central VA
later in the evening. Storms arriving from the west look to
stay mostly discrete, with southwesterly storm motion. The
stronger storms could persist longer into the evening/night, but
the storms over the Blue Ridge will likely wane after sunset,
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

One potential failure mode for storm development today would be the
cloud debris coming in from the west. This could limit the extent of
daytime heating and thus instability, there is already about a 10
degree temperature gradient from the partly cloudy skies over
southeast WV to the clear skies over the Piedmont. Storms will also
have to overcome the somewhat dry air aloft. However, thinking the
moisture advection and heating of the day will be enough to still
see storms over most of the area today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures and near daily chances for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

A surface high will remain over the Atlantic Ocean through about the
end of the week, keeping southerly to southwesterly flow over much
of the eastern US. Slight ridging aloft and increasing 500mb heights
also point to continued above normal temperatures through at least
Saturday. The front from today is progged to waver in the vicinity
of Mid Atlantic. This pattern will result in near daily chances for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorm, especially over the
mountains, until the end of the week.

A change in pattern is in store late in the weekend into early next
week. A strong cold front will cross the area around Sunday, and an
upper trough will dig southward into the eastern US. Cooler and
drier air will fill into the area, bringing cooler temperatures,
though closer to seasonal normals, maybe even below normal by the
middle of next week. There is over a 50% chance probability for over
0.5" of precipitation along and west of the Blue Ridge with the
front.

With the drier air coming in, relative humidities fall into the
upper 20% to low 30% range for Monday. Though with the post frontal
winds will be gusting up to 20 mph in the west, they don't look to
coincide with the lowest relative humidities. However,
depending on how the rainfall pans out to dampen the already dry
fuels, may see some increased fire weather concerns next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will be the prevailing situation at most TAF
sites this April 1st. A few showers and thunderstorms may move
in from the west in the afternoon, with BLF/LWB experiencing the
highest chances of impacts to flight conditions, and ROA/BCB
slightly lesser and for a shorter period. Main concerns would be
lowered cigs or temporarily reduced vsby in the heart of a
shower or storm. DAN/LYH are far enough east that they will
likely remain VFR the entire forecast period. Winds will be
moderate out of the west at generally 6-10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
The chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms may affect
mainly the mountain TAF sites generally between 18 and 03Z
again Thursday and Friday with sub-VFR conditions. Conditions
should return to VFR once convection ends each night. By the
weekend however, coverage of showers/storms increases and could
result in MVFR or lower conditions at times. The cold front
should move through Sunday night, coincident with very gusty NW
winds.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...EB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
124 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VAZ011-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-WVZ042>044-507-508-021730-
Giles-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-
Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
124 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012>017-032-033-043-044-058-059-
021730-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-Charlotte-
124 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

WVZ044-011715-
Monroe WV-
1248 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Red Sulphur Spring, or near Peterstown, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Wind gusts may knock over loose objects.

Locations impacted include...
Union...
Red Sulphur Spring...
Laurel Branch...
Wayside...
Lindside...
Raines Corner...
and Zenith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 8044 3745 8049 3748 8051 3748 8052
      3747 8056 3744 8061 3743 8080 3748 8082
      3755 8078 3765 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 254DEG 25KT 3749 8075

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
127 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VAZ023-034-011800-
Botetourt VA-Bedford VA-
127 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND SOUTHERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

At 127 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Daleville, or over Troutville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buchanan...
Troutville...
Montvale...
Fincastle...
Nace...
Arcadia...
and Daleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 7997 3750 8000 3756 7959 3737 7958
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 268DEG 21KT 3745 7990

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
202 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VAZ023-034-011830-
Botetourt VA-Bedford VA-
202 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN BEDFORD AND EAST CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
EDT...

At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Peaks Of Otter Recreation Area, or 7 miles southeast of Buchanan,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford...
Big Island...
Forest...
Coleman Falls...
Goode...
Peaks Of Otter Summit...
and Peaks Of Otter Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 7937 3751 7934 3751 7931 3750 7930
      3751 7927 3735 7934 3734 7967 3747 7972
      3754 7952 3753 7950 3756 7945 3756 7944
      3757 7944 3759 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 253DEG 23KT 3744 7960

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Hail             7 NNE Thaxton           37.43N 79.58W
04/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       Bedford            VA   Trained Spotter

&&

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