Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
251 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With stalled front over the area expecting daily threat of
showers and storms through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms through this evening
will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and
flash flooding.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms through this evening
will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and
flash flooding.

A stationary front bisects the forecast area from northwest to
southeast with light northeast wind east of the mountains
converging with westerly wind on west side of the mountains.
Convergent zone runs along a BLF-GSO line and this will be the
corridor to watch for development of deep convection. Mean
winds aloft are out of the west at about 15 mph so look for an
eastward drift of the activity with potential for isolated
damaging wind gusts due to water loading within the downdraft
cores. There is also potential for localized flash flooding per
environment supporting high rain efficiency, PWATs running 1.70
over the mountains to as much as 2" over the piedmont...
backbuilding and training cells being the most problematic.

With front providing as a lifting mechanism, deep convection
may linger a bit longer tonight compared to normal airmass
storms, but overall think activity goes dormant toward midnight
with areas of stratus and fog re-developing per shallow stable
wedge east of the mountains.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast through the weekend.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for
showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400
to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day.
Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the
front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend
with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe
storms.

A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great
Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and
storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south
of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for
early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are
expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below
normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high
pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is
shifting west over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered unorganized showers and thunderstorms will persist
through sunset then dissipate after loss of daytime heating.
Expect locally heavy downpours with downdraft wind gusts of
15-30kts. Away from deep convection expect VFR.

After heating of the day showers dissipate areas of fog and
stratus will develop overnight with potential for widespread
low cigs/vsbys leading to period of IFR conditions late
tonight and early Thursday.

Cycle repeats itself Thursday, fog/stratus lifting after 14Z
followed by cloud build-ups around noon and scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.

In general expect light winds (under 5kts), but gusty near
thunderstorms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each
afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours,
gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of
the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the
overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall
occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off
quickly after 13Z daily.

Potentially drier looks to arrive for early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
255 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-022>024-035-047-WVZ042>044-507-508-
091900-
Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Amherst-
Buckingham-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
255 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Localized flash
flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday.
Localized flash flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ016-017-032>034-043>046-058-059-091900-
Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Carroll-
Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Halifax-Charlotte-
255 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Localized flash
flooding is possible.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms. The main threat is
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday.
Localized flash flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
333 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

NCZ003-004-VAZ016-032-082015-
Stokes NC-Surry NC-Patrick VA-Carroll VA-
333 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN SURRY...NORTHWESTERN STOKES...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND
SOUTHERN PATRICK COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ararat, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Airy...
Flat Rock...
Stuart...
Ararat...
Cana...
Francisco...
and Critz.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 8086 3672 8047 3671 8046 3673 8046
      3672 8011 3644 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 280DEG 11KT 3660 8054

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
401 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Ferrum              36.87N 80.02W
07/08/2026                   Franklin           VA   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking both lanes on Stanley
            Branch Road.

&&

SHH

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