Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
354 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

350 PM Update...
Issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9PM for southeast KY,
southwest VA and much of WV.

Slight risk for severe and excessive rainfall this afternoon.
Risk for more robust convection does appear to be displaced a
slightly farther southeast than morning guidance due to morning
convection.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening will pose a primary threat of damaging wind gusts and
localized flash flooding.

2.) A brief reprieve from the active weather is expected across
northern areas on Thursday, with post-frontal temperatures
dropping significantly into the upper 60s to low 70s.

3.) The frontal boundary lifts back north on Friday, bringing
renewed chances for heavy rainfall and localized high water
issues. Unsettled weather persists through the Memorial Day
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers and thunderstorms from this morning have introduced
uncertainty regarding the extent of atmospheric recovery across
northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio this afternoon.
Consequently, convective initiation is anticipated to be
displaced slightly further southeast than initially suggested by
earlier high-resolution guidance. Despite modest mid-level lapse
rates, ongoing insolation and moisture pooling along and ahead
of an approaching cold front will yield moderate instability,
with Mixed-Layer CAPE values increasing to 1200-1800 J/kg. Deep
layer shear remains relatively weak, generally between 20 and
30 KTs, which will favor multicell clusters and perhaps some
transient supercells. The primary severe hazard this afternoon
will be damaging downburst winds, driven by steep low-level
lapse rates and elevated Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE). Gusts exceeding
40 to 45 mph could result in localized tree damage,
particularly given the fully leafed canopy with more substantial
damage possible in any true severe gusts.

In addition to the wind threat, localized flash flooding
remains a concern. Flow parallel to the frontal boundary will
encourage the training of convective cells. The environment is
characterized by deep warm cloud depths of 10-11kft and
precipitable water values climbing to around 1.7 inches, which
exceeds the 90th percentile for late May. Rainfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour are probable in the heaviest cores. Due to
largely dry antecedent conditions, much of the region can
tolerate up to 2.5 inches of rain over a short duration.
However, areas that received heavy rainfall this morning,
specifically Greenup and Carter counties in northeast Kentucky,
as well as urban centers and steep, V-shaped hollows, will be
susceptible to rapid runoff and flash flooding. A Flash Flood
Warning or two may be required for the most persistent
downpours, but the localized nature of the threat precludes the
need for a broader Flash Flood Watch at this  time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front will push southeastward tonight, causing
remaining showers and thunderstorms to become confined to the
southern coalfields and southwest Virginia Thursday morning.
Subsidence and a cooler, drier airmass will overspread the
northern half of the forecast area, providing a temporary dry
(or mainly dry) period. Post-frontal cold advection will result
in a notable temperature drop, with daytime highs on Thursday
struggling to reach 70 degrees F across the lowlands, which is
well below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The aforementioned boundary will stall to the south and lift
back north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region firmly
within the unsettled warm sector. This will mark the beginning
of a wet and active Memorial Day weekend. Friday is expected to
be the wettest day of the period as isentropic ascent increases
over the boundary. Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are expected through Monday, driven by shortwave energy riding
along the periphery of a Bermuda high. Depending on where the
heaviest rain falls today, antecedent soil conditions may
become compromised, leading to a conditional risk for high water
and flash flooding Friday into the weekend with any additional
heavy rainfall.

Widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated through
the holiday weekend, as atmospheric instability is forecast to
remain generally weak, with only periodic upticks in deep-layer
shear. Unseasonably warm temperatures will return by Sunday and
Monday, although values will remain below the record heat
observed earlier this week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mix of VFR and localized IFR to LIFR conditions is expected
this afternoon and evening. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of an approaching
cold front. Direct impacts from thunderstorms may produce brief
periods of IFR visibility and gusty, erratic winds, primarily
between 18Z and 02Z. Outside of convection, southwesterly winds
of 5 to 10 KTs will prevail ahead of the front.

Following the frontal passage tonight, winds will shift to the
northwest and north. Low-level moisture trapped beneath the
developing subsidence inversion will likely result in widespread
MVFR to IFR ceilings across the region, especially after 06Z.
Patchy dense fog is also possible in areas that receive heavy
rainfall and manage to clear out, particularly in the deeper
river valleys. Conditions will slowly improve to VFR from north
to south after 14Z Thursday as drier air works into the region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for convective impact timing,
otherwise medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with convection
will vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions conditions continue southeast Thursday afternoon.
Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend
with showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP/JZ
AVIATION...JP

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