Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
147 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances for locally heavy rainfall along and ahead of a cold
front Wednesday have increased.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the
north and west this afternoon. A decaying complex of storms
could bring a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts to
southeast Ohio tonight.

2.) A cold front crossing the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening brings a threat for damaging winds and localized flash
flooding, particularly across the Metro Valley.

3.) Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Thursday.
Unsettled weather returns Friday and lasts through the Memorial
Day weekend with repeated chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate
diurnal cumulus/cumulonimbus development across the region this
afternoon amid temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. With
relatively weak capping everywhere, at least isolated showers or
thunderstorms will be possible through loss of heating this
evening, most prevalent across the west and north where capping
is weakest. Steep low level lapse rates could yield some gusty
winds underneath the strongest cores, but the overall severe
risk remains fairly low through early this evening..

Attention then turns to tonight as a complex of storms
approaches from the west. With the loss of daytime heating and
waning instability, this complex is expected to gradually
dissipate as it approaches the Ohio River. However, any more
robust line segments could still contain marginally severe
gusts as they move into southeast Ohio.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The main forecast challenge resides with the activity ahead of
and along an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front, coupled with strong surface heating,
will yield moderate instability heading into Wednesday afternoon
with Mixed-Layer CAPE building in excess of 1500 J/kg. While
mid-level lapse rates remain rather poor, steep low level lapse
rates and DCAPE near 800 J/kg will present a threat for
damaging downburst winds. Deep layer shear is expected to remain
on the weaker side, generally around 25 to 30KTs, which will
favor multicellular clusters. A transient window for supercells
may materialize if a brief uptick in shear to 35 KTs overlaps
with peak heating. Some mid-level drying could introduce a
marginal hail threat in the strongest updrafts, but wet bulb
zero heights generally remain above 10-11kft limiting potential
for survival of marginally severe hail to the surface.

A secondary, and perhaps more impactful, concern for Wednesday
will be the potential for training heavy downpours. Boundary
flow is forecast to become nearly parallel to the advancing
front. This, combined with deep warm cloud depths around 9000 to
10000 ft and precipitable water values pooling to 1.7 inches
(above the 90th percentile climatology for this time of year),
supports highly efficient rainfall production. Probability
matched means HREF/REFS highlight a narrow temporal window
between 4 PM and 8 PM for localized heavy rain, clustered
primarily across the Metro Valley and adjacent counties. While
antecedent soil conditions are quite dry across the area, the
intensity of the rainfall could overwhelm the basin response in
steep terrain and urbanized environments. A quick 2.5 inches of
rain would be sufficient to push small creeks out of their banks
and cause flash flooding with lesser amounts causing issues in
built up areas. A targeted flash flood watch may become
necessary if guidance remains consistent on the placement of the
heaviest rainfall axis over the next few model runs.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The cold front pushes south of the area on Thursday, allowing
most locations to dry out as cooler air filters in. High
temperatures will struggle to get out of the 70s on Thursday
under the influence of cold advection.

This respite is brief, as the frontal boundary shifts back to
the north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region in an
unsettled warm sector heading into the Memorial Day weekend. The
boundary is expected to stall just to our north across the
Upper Ohio Valley. Friday currently appears to be the wettest
day of the extended period. Depending on the exact placement and
amounts of Wednesday's heavy rainfall, antecedent soil moisture
could become locally compromised, yielding a conditional risk
for additional high water concerns on Friday.

Showery activity will continue periodically from Saturday
through Memorial Day as a persistent Bermuda high over the
Atlantic continues to shunt shortwaves through the Ohio Valley.
Through this period, there is no strong signal for organized
severe weather, as atmospheric instability is expected to remain
rather weak with only periodic upticks in deep layer shear.
Temperatures will rebound, bringing unseasonably warm, though
perhaps not record-breaking, conditions back to the region for
the latter half of the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority of the
TAF sites this afternoon into early evening. Southwest winds of
8-12KTs will occasionally gust to 20KTs before subsiding after
sunset. Isolated showers or a thunderstorm may develop across
northern terminals late this afternoon, but coverage is too
sparse for inclusion of anything more than VCSH/VCTS at this
time.

A decaying complex of thunderstorms will approach from the west
tonight - would largely expect this to dissipate before reaching
the western TAF sites.

On Wednesday, a cold front will approach the region, initiating
another round of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the
period. Expect cloud bases to lower and southwesterly winds to
increase ahead of the front. A bulk of any heavier precipitation
will occur beyond the end of this TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: An afternoon thunderstorm passing over a
TAF site may promote brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front, likely
resulting in periods of MVFR to localized IFR conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Slightly more substantial cloud cover may keep afternoon highs
today just short of records in several locations.

  Forecast / Record High Temperatures
---------------------
      Today, 5/19    |
---------------------
CRW | 90 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 89 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 89 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 86 / 93 (1996) |
---------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
417 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

OHZ083-084-086-192100-
Jackson OH-Gallia OH-Vinton OH-
417 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL GALLIA...CENTRAL
JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN VINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 417 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Jackson, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Wellston, Hamden, Coalton, Petersburg, and Radcliffe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 8279 3921 8241 3899 8232 3892 8275
      3894 8275 3895 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 250DEG 29KT 3900 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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