Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
727 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 720 PM Sunday...
Updated aviation discussion

As of 540 PM Sunday...
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of SE
OH.

Previous discussion:
No significant changes to previous forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will move through the region Sunday evening and
overnight, with showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.

- 2) Another front will affect the area late week, with cooler
conditions in its wake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As of 540 PM Sunday...

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of SE
OH. This watch will cover two distinct areas of expected
convection. The first, along a slow moving cold front where an
existing broken line of convection has already developed. These
storms will continue to move west to east along the slowly
southerly sagging frontal boundary and may brush by our northern
counties this evening - a bulk of this activity is expected to
remain north of us. The main threats with this activity are
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds. The
second, will be elevated anafrontal convection expected to begin
developing over the next few hours as large scale ascent begins
to increase. Initially, this activity will be well north of us,
expected to begin arriving in our northwest counties toward the
tail end of the current severe thunderstorm watch which ends at
midnight. The main threats with this activity will be large hail
and perhaps some marginal severe gusts along the leading edge if
cold pools can amalgamate sufficiently.

Previous discussion:

Weather becomes active again today across the region. Very warm,
and gradually moistening conditions taking hold across the
area, with increasing southwesterly flow. An approaching cold
front, will help to kick off showers and storms, mainly late
this afternoon and evening in the increasingly unstable airmass.
Storms look to initially kick off across far eastern
Ohio/western PA as the front approaches the river, with the
front outrunning/undercutting convection in the late evening
hours as it progresses southward of the Ohio River. Greatest
risk area for stronger storms thus still looks to be north of
the Ohio River area, in association with frontal boundary, and
in an environment with strong shear, and steep lapse rates, with
the potential for strong rotating updrafts, and a threat for
large hail and damaging winds. SPC has placed a hatched area
across SE Ohio zones for large hail, possibly golf ball size or
larger.

As the front moves east in the evening out ahead of convection, and
instability gradually wanes, expecting storms to gradually become
less severe/intense in nature, although there will still be the
potential for a severe storm in the late evening/night hours due to
lingering elevated instability, and the approach of a shortwave from
the west.

Precipitation will gradually taper off Monday morning with the front
and aforementioned shortwave moving out of the area. However, plenty
of lingering low level moisture will mean a rather cloudy/misty
start to Monday for many areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another frontal boundary will affect the area towards the end of the
week. Still pretty far out, but there are indications it could
linger across the area for a few days, with multiple waves moving
along, possibly enhancing periods of precipitation. Too early to be
concerned about any water issues this far out, but regardless, looks
like a wet end to the week/into the next weekend is possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through 02Z with
convective activity remaining north of the terminals. After
02Z, SHRA and TSRA will progress southeast through the forecast
area with the best chances for thunder at PKB/CKB where
predominate TSRA groups have been coded. Lesser confidence
farther south where convective has largely been addressed with
TEMPO or PROB30 groups.

Direct impacts from thunderstorms will result in brief
IFR/LIFR visibility and variable wind gusts up to 40 KTs. A
sharp wind shift to the northwest will occur with the frontal
passage between 02Z and 06Z. Behind the front, widespread MVFR
with some patches of IFR are expected. Conditions will
gradually improve to VFR from northwest to southeast after 15Z
Monday, though low-end MVFR ceilings may linger along the
western slopes of the mountains through the end of the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and storms may spread across the
area from northwest to southeast quicker than currently
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Patchy fog possible Tuesday morning. IFR conditions possible late
Thursday and Friday with the approach of another cold front and
associated showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP/SL
AVIATION...JP