Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1226 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Latest thoughts on today's strong thunderstorm and flooding
threats. Updated 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Localized flash flooding and isolated strong to severe
storms will be possible today. Then, expect daily chances of
showers and storms throughout the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A postively-tilted trough will track across the middle Ohio
Valley and Appalachians today, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms along with it. GOES satellite imagery shows clouds
breaking for brief pockets of sunshine across the middle Ohio
Valley, and this daytime heating may provide fuel for isolated
stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. However, the
thick cloud cover has likely limited the overall severe
thunderstorm threat today. If a few storms are able to mature,
deep-layer shear will be just enough (30-40 kts) to support
organized convection. SPC mesoanalysis also shows around 100
m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm relative helicity across central and
eastern portions of West Virginia today, which could provide
support for a brief spin-up tornado. However, the main threat of
any storms that mature today would be localized damaging wind
gusts and cloud-to-ground lightning.

In addition to a marginal severe weather threat, there is also a
threat of flash flooding due to a very saturated airmass.
Precipitable water values are highest today across central,
northern, and eastern West Virginia at 2.00 to 2.25 inches. These
are the locations where flooding will be a concern today, and a
Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas until late tonight.
Any place that sees training showers and thunderstorms today will be
at risk of flash flooding.

The aforementioned trough will escape to the northeast Monday
and Tuesday, but a cutoff upper-level low will develop over the
Southeast on Tuesday and hang around through much of the
workweek. The upper-level low and lingering vorticity aloft will
support the development of showers and thunderstorms each day
this week, with the highest chances occurring in the afternoon
and evening hours during peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Showers and thunderstorms will impact most sites through this
evening. Main impacts will be intermittent visibility reductions
to MVFR or IFR in downpours and MVFR low ceilings. Light to
moderate southwest winds are expected today.

After midnight, winds will turn calm and rain will dissipate.
Ceilings will lower overnight and fog will develop where it
recently rained today. LIFR/VLIFR fog and ceilings will be
possible at a few sites. By 14Z Monday, any fog that develops
will have dissipated, but MVFR ceilings will linger through the
early afternoon. Light northwest winds are expected Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions will vary in showers and
storms. In addition, restrictions early Monday morning in fog
and low ceilings may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    L    H    M    L    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR restrictions are possible with showers and thunderstorms
throughout the week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ008>011-013>020-
     025>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

WVZ008-015-016-021945-
Jackson-Roane-Kanawha-
252 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IN CENTRAL
KANAWHA...WESTERN ROANE AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Spencer, Chesapeake, Marmet, Belle, Pinch, Coal Fork,
Elkview, Harmony, Walton, and Gandeeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 4 and 18.
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 96 and 99.
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 88 and 95.

Heavy rain may cause ponding of water on roadways and water
problems in low-lying areas.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 8137 3840 8137 3817 8158 3818 8161
      3817 8163 3818 8165 3819 8164 3821 8165
      3822 8164 3822 8168 3842 8157 3881 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 240DEG 49KT 3833 8153

25

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