Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1137 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were necessary at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Severe storms expected this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid level shortwave energy will dive south into the area into the
afternoon hours, followed by a cold front late this evening into the
overnight. As a cluster of elevated convection associated with this
shortwave approaches our area, it will encounter a very moist and
unstable environment, with convection becoming more surface based as
it enters our CWA. CAPE values progged to approach 2000 to 4000
J/kg, and increasing shear values of 40 to 60 kts in the 0-6km
layer, will result in potential for storms to become organized.
Damaging winds are the primary hazard, with convection potentially
organizing into lines/bowing segments, but with that being said,
there is a tornado threat as well, with low LCL heights less than
1500m and 0-3km SRH greater than 250.

Timing of the severe activity is difficult to pinpoint, but appears
most should occur in the afternoon to early/mid evening hours, with
an additional round of convection expected with the front later
tonight. It's possible some of this convection associated with the
front could be low end severe, but with loss of heating, and any
effects earlier convection has on the overall environment,
confidence isn't high.

Lastly, with any storms that occur, flash flooding is a possibility,
with the overall anomalously high PW are that continues to remain in
place. This should mainly be a threat in locations that receive
repetitive rounds of convection.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR stratocumulus will be most persistent in the mountains
this morning, but will show up in the middle Ohio Valley at
times, amid moist low level south to southwest flow..

Active weather is expected later today as a cold front, strong
for mid Summer, approaches from the northwest. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop across or arrive in the middle Ohio
later this morning, and be numerous this afternoon into tonight
as the expand into the central Appalachians.

PROB30 groups for strong, heavy thunderstorms have been
included from 19-22Z northwest (PKB) to 21-01Z southeast (BKW)
as the storms organize into a line or line segments. The area is
in an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, which would
mainly be for damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening,
particularly with any organized severe thunderstorms or lines of
thunderstorms. However, large hail and even a tornado are also
possible, particularly with more discrete cells including
supercells.

The cold front will cross overnight tonight into Wednesday
morning, with areas of MVFR stratocumulus and mist, along with
showers and thunderstorms lingering in the mountains.

Light south to southwest flow early this morning will increase
from the southwest by mid morning, with gusts into the 20 to 25
kt range through this afternoon and into this evening outside
thunderstorms, before becoming light southwest tonight. Erratic
gusts, mainly from the southwest to northwest, are likely with
thunderstorms, and have been coded up in the aforementioned
PROB30 groups this afternoon into this evening. A wind shift to
light west to northwest should ensue at most if not all sites by
12Z Wednesday. Generally light to moderate southwest flow aloft
will shift to light to moderate northwest behind the cold front
aloft overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Impacts due to thunderstorms could vary,
including timing and worse impacts than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR or lower is forecast Wednesday morning due to fog and low
stratus, then trending more toward valley fog each morning
through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1129 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

OHZ066-067-075-076-211615-
Washington OH-Athens OH-Morgan OH-Perry OH-
1129 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN MORGAN AND NORTHERN ATHENS COUNTIES THROUGH
1215 PM EDT...

At 1128 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Shawnee to Nelsonville to near Hocking
Hills State Park. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Nelsonville, Glouster, Beverly, Chauncey, Corning,
Stockport, Jacksonville, Trimble, Amesville, and The Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 8159 3959 8158 3958 8156 3940 8173
      3934 8219 3937 8229 3947 8228 3947 8217
      3954 8216 3956 8216 3956 8223 3964 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 281DEG 31KT 3959 8212 3948 8224 3946 8246

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1228 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     Rain             2 SE Amesville          39.38N 81.92W
07/21/2026  M0.95 Inch       Athens             OH   Cocorahs

            0.95 inches of rain in 20 minutes located
            2.6 miles southeast of Amesville.

&&

HS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
107 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Nelsonville             39.46N 82.23W
07/21/2026                   Athens             OH   911 Call Center

            Two separate reports of trees and wires down
            along Canal St and Fort St in Nelsonville.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

HS