Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall forecast thinking remains largely similar. Decent
convective coverage today, decreasing into Wednesday, then
increases again late in the week.

Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
across the region this afternoon. A surface trough located
across southeast Ohio is providing a localized area of enhanced
surface convergence, which is focusing the highest coverage of
convective activity just west of the forecast area at this hour.
This activity will continue to drift east through the late
afternoon and early evening hours. The column remains moist with
PWATs in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range with forcast MLCAPE values in
the 1000-2000J/kg range. Deep layer shear remains weak,
generally around 15-20KTs, which will foster a mix of weak
multicellular and pulse storm modes.

The primary hazard with these storms will be wet downbursts.
While severe criteria gusts of 58 mph are not widely expected,
steep low-level lapse rates and Downdraft CAPE values of 500 to
600 J/kg will be sufficient to produce localized wind gusts in
the 40 to 45 mph range. With full foliage currently on trees
across Appalachia, gusts of this magnitude are often sufficient
to cause localized tree damage and subsequent power outages.

In addition to the wind threat, the moist column and slow storm
motions will yield highly efficient rainfall rates. Rainfall
intensities exceeding 2 inches per hour may lead to localized
flash flooding, particularly if training echoes develop or if
heavy rain falls over the steep terrain and narrow hollows
across the region. Convection is expected to wane by 01Z to 02Z
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight, areas that receive
rainfall and subsequently clear out will be primed for the
development of dense valley fog due to strong radiational
cooling and cold air drainage into the river valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Transient upper level ridging will briefly build across the
region Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in a decrease in
the overall diurnal convective coverage, with Wednesday
featuring the lowest precipitation chances of the work week.
Valley fog will remain a diurnal threat each night during the
early morning hours, particularly in the deep, sheltered river
valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The transient ridging will break down by Thursday as upper level
troughing reestablishes itself over the Ohio Valley. A more
defined surface front will push southeast toward the Middle Ohio
Valley late in the week and into the weekend. While there
remains some disagreement among numerical guidance regarding
the precise timing and amplitude of these synoptic features,
confidence is increasing in a general uptick in precipitation
probabilities Thursday and especially Friday. A surge of higher
precipitable water air will accompany this system, elevating the
potential for highly efficient rainfall-producing storms. As the
frontal boundary gradually sags south through the weekend, an
increase in deep-layer shear associated with the stronger flow
aloft may introduce a better potential for organized convection,
though the exact mesoscale details remain murky at this lead
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pop-up convection is developing across the region this
afternoon. The best focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be along a surface trough currently moving
through southeast Ohio. Highest confidence in direct terminal
impacts exists at KHTS and KPKB, where TEMPO groups for
thunderstorms and heavy rain have been included through the late
afternoon. Elsewhere, PROB30 groups have been utilized to
account for the more isolated nature of the convection. Brief
periods of IFR or lower conditions are possible with any direct
impacts from heavy rainfall.

Convective activity is expected to largely fade between 01Z and
02Z this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight,
the development of river valley fog is likely, particularly at
terminals that receive rainfall this afternoon and experience
early clearing. IFR to LIFR visibilities and ceilings are
expected to develop in the favored valleys, persisting until
mixing commences around 12-13Z Tuesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary.
Significance of fog overnight will largely depend on rainfall
this afternoon and timing of clearing overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions associated with thunderstorms remains possible
through the work week and into the weekend, more likely in the
afternoon and evening hours. Dense fog possible each night in
areas that receive rainfall the afternoon and evening before.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP

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