Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
533 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

No changes to previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers and storms, some severe, today into early next week.

2. Hot and humid conditions continue into the Independence Day
Holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper ridge will begin to slowly break down starting today, with
showers and storms developing across the area, particularly this
afternoon and evening. Very  unstable air, with CAPE values progged
to be 3000-4000 J/kg, combined with drier air in lower levels of the
atmosphere/DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, will warrant the potential
for severe/downburst threat with any storms. SPC continues to
highlight the area in a slight risk for severe for today.

In addition, any storms during the period will contain heavy
downpours, and localized flooding issues are possible, particularly
in spots that receive repetitive downpours.

Additional rounds of storms are expected Sunday into early next
week, with the approach of a shortwave trough. The threat for at
least isolated strong to severe storms also looks to be possible
during the period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Still some questions remain as to whether we will reach heat
criteria levels on Saturday, particularly with the threat for
increased convection, and cloud cover. However, due to the
Independence Day holiday, and the fact that hot and humid conditions
will persist, and with the area already several days into this
pattern, have elected to continue headlines into Saturday evening.

Sunday could touch heat advisory criteria in a few locations, but,
with scattered convection and cloud cover, thinking coverage will
not be enough to warrant continuation of headlines at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy IFR/LIFR/VLIFR valley fog, generally through 12Z when
conditions are expected to return to VFR with light surface
winds. There is the possibility for isold-sct showers and storms
to affect NE KY and perhaps southern WV generally 12Z through
16Z, however, confidence is low, and was not included in any
TAFs due to this, but would most likely affect KHTS this morning if
it survives.

After 18Z, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop,
with brief IFR or worse restrictions expected in vicinity of
storms. In addition, strong, damaging downburst winds are
possible with any storm.

Most of the convection should generally start to wane after
06Z-09Z, however, in its wake, expect areas of IFR or worse fog,
and the potential for isolated showers and storms with IFR
restrictions to continue to be a possibility.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of development of storms, and
associated flight restrictions on Saturday may vary from the
forecast. Fog tonight may be denser and more widespread than
currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions associated with thunderstorms remains possible
through the end of the weekend into early next week due to
localized reductions to CIGs/VSBYs.
Areas of fog or low stratus possible Sunday and Monday mornings

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ032>034-039-
     040-515-517-519-521-525.
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1207 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

WVZ025-026-041630-
Boone WV-Logan WV-
1207 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LOGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

At 1206 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chapmanville, or 7 miles southwest of Madison, moving northeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Chapmanville, Van, Julian, Danville, Foster, Turtle Creek,
Sharples, and Jeffrey.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 37 and 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 8204 3802 8201 3802 8194 3803 8191
      3804 8195 3805 8197 3806 8197 3814 8190
      3814 8188 3815 8188 3815 8189 3818 8186
      3817 8185 3798 8164 3786 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 229DEG 7KT 3798 8190

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1235 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

WVZ025-033-034-041700-
Wyoming WV-McDowell WV-Logan WV-
1235 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL...WESTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

At 1235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hanover, or 8 miles southwest of Pineville, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Welch, Pineville, Oceana, Hanover, Mallory, Davy, Iaeger, Clear Fork,
Wolf Pen, Coal Mountain, and Baileysville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 8182 3761 8181 3763 8180 3766 8181
      3774 8180 3771 8145 3744 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 192DEG 10KT 3754 8169

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11