Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
143 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the northern
tier of counties until 8 PM. Slight risk expanded to the
northwest for today and trimmed from the northwest for Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
localized flash flooding are possible this afternoon and
evening.

2. A cold front will bring better chances for more numerous
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Some storms could contain damaging wind gusts and hail.

3. Drier and cooler weather returns for Saturday before
another frontal system brings rain chances back to the region
on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface observations early this afternoon show temperatures
climbing into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees F with dew points
in the lower 70s. While mid-level lapse rates are poor, this
strong surface heating and moisture pooling will yield MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg by peak heating with little to no
convective inhibition.

The forecast area is initially under weak subsidence behind a
departing shortwave, but a secondary wave approaching this
afternoon will provide the necessary forcing for convective
initiation. Deep layer shear is weak, generally 15 to 25KTs,
which supports a multicellular storm mode. Given steep low level
lapse rates and water-loaded soundings featuring precipitable
water values near 1.8 inches, the primary threat will be
isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

There is some potential for cold pools to congeal,
allowing convection to grow upscale as it progresses eastward
late this afternoon into this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect through 8 PM for the northern counties where
convective coverage and the threat for upscale growth is
highest. While the best convective coverage is largely expected
to stay away from areas that have seen upwards of 3 to 4 inches
in the past few days, should any heavy rain work its way down
into these areas, isolated high water issues may occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Remnant convection from a large system over
the Midwest is expected to approach the western counties by
early Friday morning, potentially bringing lingering gusty winds
as it dissipates.

Strong surface heating during the day will allow the boundary
layer to become uncapped by noon. While isolated convection
could develop on remnant outflow boundaries, the first half of
the day should remain largely dry under weak subsidence. A cold
front will approach the Middle Ohio Valley by 1 to 2 PM,
blossoming showers and thunderstorms into a broken line that
will bisect the forecast area from southwest to northeast by
late afternoon. Kinematics lag the frontal boundary, with deep
layer shear of 20 to 25KTs coincident with the expected storm
footprint. This will once again favor a multicellular mode.
Fairly straight hodographs suggest a low end threat for a split
into supercells, with any left-splits posing a marginal severe
hail threat. However, the primary hazard remains damaging wind
gusts driven by steep low level lapse rates. Brief but intense
heavy rainfall is expected, but the progressive nature of the
front will limit hydro issues.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
In the post frontal environment, drier and slightly cooler
conditions are forecast for Saturday. Highs will drop back
toward normal values in the lower to mid 80s for the lowlands
and 70s for the mountains, providing a brief reprieve from the
humidity. Moisture quickly returns on Sunday ahead of another
approaching cold front. Kinematics with this system are
stronger, featuring deep layer shear of 30 to 40KTs. Current
timing of the frontal passage places the best forcing largely east
of the region by peak heating, limiting the severe risk
primarily to the northeastern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Convection developing ahead of an approaching mid-level wave
is expected, potentially congealing into a larger mass of
convection as it progresses east crossing the northeastern
terminals this afternoon into this evening. The primary threats
are a sudden westerly wind shift with gusts of 30 to 50KTs and
torrential rainfall leading to brief visibility restrictions.
This has been addressed with TEMPO TSRA groups.

Further south, convective coverage will be more isolated,
warranting VCTS for now. The bulk of this activity will shift
east of the airspace by 00Z. Patchy fog development is possible
overnight, but modest boundary layer flow should limit
widespread dense fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could
vary from the forecast, especially if congealing of cold pools
does not materialize this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR visibility possible in thunderstorms Friday
and Sunday. IFR conditions in fog is possible early Saturday
and Monday mornings, as high pressure builds in behind cold
fronts that cross Friday and Sunday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT..
As of 140 PM the RLX radar remains down for maintenance, it is
expected to return to service shortly.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ006>008-
     013>019-026-027-029.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
EQUIPMENT...JP

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