Flash Flood Warning 245, NWS Charleston, WV

551 
WGUS71 KRLX 230326
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1126 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

WVC019-081-230336-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.W.0245.000000T0000Z-260923T0345Z/
/00000.U.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fayette WV-Raleigh WV-
1126 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FAYETTE AND CENTRAL RALEIGH
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 3788 8120 3792 8112 3788 8098 3769 8116
      3765 8135 3769 8138 3775 8143 3775 8144
      3776 8144

$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
703 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Elected to extend the Flood Watch through Wednesday evening to
capture additional rainfall expected tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Continuation of heavy rain from slow moving showers and
thunderstorms will maintain the risk of localized flash
flooding through at least Wednesday evening.

2.) Gradually turning drier on Thursday into the first weekend
of Autumn, with temperatures cooling off into the lower to mid
70s during the day and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface level pressure analysis this afternoon shows an
anticipated inverted trough firmly over the eastern forecast
area. Radar trends at the time of writing painted a line of slow
moving showers forming over the Charleston metro and climbing up
the I-79 corridor. These low topped showers appear to be
following light southwesterly flow per forecast soundings, with
the slow nature prompting close monitoring for potential flash
flooding. This is especially true for the northern half of the
forecast area, where 1hr-FFG remains below an inch. While
rainfall rates seem to be manageable thus far this afternoon,
will have to keep in mind the highly sensitive soils throughout
the course of the evening and overnight.

Model guidance suggests a slightly northwestern push of
precipitation late tonight into Wednesday morning as surface low
pressure begins to churn offshore. Mid to upper level troughing
closes off into low pressure, which will continue to provide
nutritional moisture for additional showers and thunderstorms
heading into Wednesday. With concern of more rain and already
compromised soils, opted to extend the Flood Watch in time
through Wednesday evening to encompass this longer period of
rainfall and flash flooding monitoring. May also need to
consider an expansion in counties if confidence grows for rain
to park over the Ohio River Valley.

The center of the upper low dismantles back into an open wave
Thursday morning, with shower coverage slowly diminishing from
north to south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Lingering showers over the mountains come to an end on Thursday
in response to building high pressure at the surface and ridging
aloft. These two features will work in tandem to advertise a
stretch of dry weather for the end of the work week into the
weekend. Cooler air filtering in from the northwest will yield
temperatures that will resemble Autumn, and a welcome reprieve
from the stretch of heat noted over the past few weeks. Daytime
highs will struggle to topple over the 70 degree mark from
Thursday onward, while overnight lows range in the 40s to 50s
each night through the weekend.

A classic overrunning profile observed on forecast soundings
for today and Wednesday will keep the area entrenched beneath
overcast skies for the next few days. As the advancing ridge and
surface high build into the area, we should see clearing skies
branch out as early as Thursday evening.

Next weather maker on the horizon does not look to approach the
area until sometime around the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

All MOS guidance shows stratus deck lowering tonight with
visibilities dropping. Most models however, show downslope
winds eroding the stratus deck and conditions becoming VFR on
the western side of the mountains, expanding westward during the
night. This leads to a low confidence forecast that could be
either LIFR or VFR later tonight. Regardless, some showers can
be expected this evening along the mountains.

If stratus deck remains, expect it to gradually lift to MVFR on
Wednesday. If clearing wins tonight, expect VFR conditions to
give way to some MVFR cumulus Wednesday. Some showers and
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Very low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibilities could lower
tonight or there could be clearing starting along the mountains
and moving westward.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and storms through
Wednesday night. IFR stratus/fog possible Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OHZ076.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...RPY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
742 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     Flash Flood      1 NE Burnsville         38.86N 80.65W
09/22/2026                   Braxton            WV   911 Call Center

            High water on Oil Creek Road just outside of
            Burnsville.

&&