Flash Flood Warning 198, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
738 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

159 PM Update...

~18z aviation forecast update.

1243 PM Update...
Flash flooding concerns remain through tonight with rounds of
showers and thunderstorms moving through the area ahead of a
cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Through early Friday, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to traverse the area ahead of and along a cold front. Flash
flooding will be a concern due to heavy downpours and training
storms.

2) Active weather is expected through the weekend. Drier weather
moves in on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Flash flooding concerns continue today with rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving across the forecast area ahead of an
approaching cold front that will cross this afternoon. Ongoing and
new flash flooding is expected from showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and especially this evening from the crossing
cold front.

Between 3" and 6" of rainfall has fallen across portions of
southeastern Ohio and western West Virginia this morning leading to
significant flash flooding. A conveyor belt of light showers will
continue to move up from the southwest this morning. Models show
another heavier round of showers and thunderstorms that will form
later this afternoon and evening. This will be in the 5-10 PM time
frame today. Models still vary as to where the heaviest rain
will occur. The HRRR brings the heaviest rainfall across the
Tri-State and I-64 Corridor through the Metro Valley. The NAM on
the other hand, chooses to keep it north further impacting
locations that saw significant flooding this morning. An
additional 1-3" of rainfall is possible through tonight.

A conditional severe weather threat exists this afternoon and
evening for damaging wind gusts with any strong to severe
thunderstorms. Cloud cover may ultimately keep a widespread severe
weather threat at bay, but forcing from the crossing front this
afternoon will possibly create some stronger isolated to
scattered thunderstorms.

Light showers and drizzle will continue into Friday morning as
the front exits east. High pressure will sneak in late on Friday
providing a brief drier spell ahead of our active weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A warm front will lift north on Saturday bringing a widespread
soaking rain back to the area. The highest amounts around 1" to
1.50" looks to remain across the mountains and down into southwest
Virginia. Localized flash flooding could be possible into the
weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting the
area.

High pressure is projected to move in on Monday and the
consensus is drier weather that will span Monday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With winds expected to go calm and along with the rainfall
every site received today dense fog is expected with low
stratus. CIGs will progressively lower in height due to rain
showers and possible thunderstorm activity then a lull should
take place where dense fog and low stratus will likely form
at around 6Z and lift at around 13/14Z. From then on, MVFR or
borderline MVFR CIGS will likely dominate for the afternoon amid
light and variable surface flow. For the overnight Friday into
Saturday morning dense fog will remain a possibility once
again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms may
vary from the forecast. Fog and low ceiling formation tonight
into Friday morning will likely vary some from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Additional restrictions may occur in showers/storms Friday
evening and through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...JZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
649 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

WVZ009-017-019-102345-
Wirt-Ritchie-Wood-
649 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RITCHIE...NORTHEASTERN WIRT
AND EAST CENTRAL WOOD COUNTIES...

Locations impacted include...
Harrisville, North Bend State Park, Ellenboro, Cairo, Freeport,
Greencastle, Walker, and Petroleum.

This includes Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 35 and
39.

Heavy rain may cause ponding of water on roadways and flooding in
low-lying areas. Between 1 and 2 inches has already fallen.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 8143 3917 8144 3928 8102 3908 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 262DEG 11KT 3913 8131

JP