Flash Flood Warning 190, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1201 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

Latest thoughts on thunderstorms today and Saturday, along with
the excessive heat and humidity.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance for severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding will
continue today and tomorrow. Thunderstorm chances will then diminish
Sunday and into next week.

2) The excessive heat and humidity will continue today with a Heat
Advisory remaining in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The upper-level ridge axis will migrate westward from the Tennessee
Valley to the Central Plains over the next 24 hours, placing our
forecast region in the favorable zone for thunderstorms over the
next two days on the periphery of the ridge. In addition, a cold
front will slowly approach from the north today, sweeping through
the forecast area Saturday.

The combination of favorable instability (1,000 to 2,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE) and modest 0-6 km bulk shear (20-35 kts) will create support
for strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
strongest shear will be located across northern West Virginia and
southeast Ohio today. Today's severe threats will mainly be damaging
wind gusts and some isolated large hail.

Saturday's dynamics will be very similar to today's with favorable
instability and shear. However, the main focus for severe
thunderstorms will likely be across southern zones, ahead of the
cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe
weather outlooked Saturday across southwest Virginia and portions of
southern West Virginia and northeast Kentucky.

High pressure will build back into the region from the north Sunday,
largely ending thunderstorm chances for most areas until mid to late
next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Excessive heat and humidity continues today with high temperatures
expected to reach the middle and upper 90s across the lowlands. Heat
index values will once again reach the lower 100s across these
areas. Be sure to practice heat safety in these conditions. Take
breaks in the air conditioning, drink plenty of water and
electrolytes, and frequently check on neighbors without air
conditioning.

Saturday will be hot, but temperatures and heat index values will
likely be just below advisory criteria with scattered to widespread
clouds and convection ahead of a cold front. Some relief from the
heat and humidity will arrive by Sunday. Temperatures will top out
in the lower to middle 80s for highs, and dew points will also run a
little lower, topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s instead of
the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Conditions are VFR at the time of this writing.

VCTS will develop at many of the TAF sites after 18Z this
afternoon. Any thunderstorm that moves over the airfield can
temporarily reduce visibility.

Overnight conditions should be a mixture of VFR and MVFR with
broken to scattered stratus, but KEKN will likely drop to IFR
with dense fog after 07Z Saturday. Improvements are expected by
12Z Saturday.

VCTS will then redevelop Saturday across most terminals with
restrictions possible if a thunderstorm moves over the airfield.
A cold front will cross Saturday afternoon with a wind shift
from the northwest expected late in the afternoon behind the
cold front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development early Saturday morning may
be more widespread, depending on where rain falls today from
thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms at times Saturday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26

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