Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
600 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Two rounds of showers/thunderstorms today with severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding possible. The first round
affects the entire area this morning, then round two focused
south of the Ohio River this afternoon/evening.

2) After a relatively quiet stretch of weather mid to late week,
more unsettled weather arrives for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Hi-Res models are supported by upstream radar imagery with the
idea of a complex of showers/thunderstorms congealing to our
northwest over MI and OH and riding an advancing warm front
southeast into and across our CWA late tonight into Tuesday
morning. The presence of the warm front and increasing
southwesterly flow should continue to pull in moisture in the
low levels with a source region where surface dewpoints are
currently around 80. Wind shear also increases overnight. So
while timing suggest convection should be predominantly
elevated, we cannot rule out some isolated higher wind gusts
perhaps reaching the surface.

Probably a bit more concerning given recent events is the threat
for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. PWATs are shown
to rise over 2 inches up the Ohio River later this morning and
HREF points to a potential for training of convection and an
elevated risk of excessive rainfall in a narrow corridor
dropping down over the heart of our CWA towards dawn. This looks
like a localized threat and I am not confident enough on the
placement of the area of heavy rain for a flood watch at this
time, but will definitely continue to monitor the potential as
the upstream convection takes shape through the predawn hours.

After a lull in activity later in the morning, we should have
several hours to destabilize in advance of the front, which will
pass southeast of the Ohio River during the early afternoon. We
anticipate scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms to
develop in advance of the front and slide southeast with a
potential for the strongest storms to carry a risk of damaging
winds and perhaps some hail, especially if the sun comes out for
several hours.

Showers and thunderstorms diminish quickly across our southeast
counties during the evening, but we remain close enough to a low
pressure system over NY and PA for a few showers or storms to
fire in our northeast mountains Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure builds over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys from
Wednesday through Friday bringing pleasant weather. Models then
show a trough aloft digging in to our west over the weekend and
perhaps cutting off from the mean flow into early next week.
This results in moisture advection and increasing chances for
showers/storms Saturday into Sunday, and lingering
showers/storms through at least Monday and probably into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

A line of heavy showers and TSTMs is rolling through eastern
Kentucky and western West Virginia around 13Z, and will exit out of
the area by 15Z leaving some showers and MVFR cigs in its wake.
However, a few heavier showers have redeveloped across south-central
Ohio and are spreading southeastward, likely affecting KHTS with
cig/vsby restrictions and possibly a TSTM through 15Z.

A much weaker band of showers and possible TSTMs (30 percent chc)
will follow the main band and will affect most of the airfields
between 18Z and 22Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 20 to 40 percent chc that the shower
activity will continue after 22Z to about 01Z. There is lower
confidence after 06Z due to timing of the onset of LIFR cig/vis.
Cigs could also be 200 ft higher than fcst and vis could be 1SM.

 &&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...ASR/Cohen@LOX

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
440 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

OHZ083-084-280915-
Jackson OH-Vinton OH-
440 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN
VINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM EDT...

At 440 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Kingston to near Waverly.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Coalton, Byer, Petersburg, Allensville, and Eagle Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 8279 3917 8277 3937 8275 3936 8264
      3937 8263 3937 8252 3940 8251 3939 8246
      3892 8268 3901 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 308DEG 28KT 3953 8280 3919 8293

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
513 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

OHZ075-083>086-280945-
Jackson OH-Athens OH-Meigs OH-Gallia OH-Vinton OH-
513 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MEIGS...NORTH
CENTRAL GALLIA...JACKSON...VINTON AND WEST CENTRAL ATHENS COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 AM EDT...

At 513 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Hide-A-Way Hills to 8
miles north of South Webster. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Wellston, Mcarthur, Oak Hill, Rio Grande, Lake Hope State
Park, Hamden, Coalton, Zaleski, Vinton, Wilkesville, Mabee, Creola,
Eagle Mills, Radcliffe, Petersburg, Allensville, Byer, and
Centerpoint.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 8279 3917 8277 3937 8275 3936 8264
      3937 8263 3937 8252 3940 8251 3939 8229
      3942 8228 3941 8219 3883 8238 3891 8276
      3894 8275 3895 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 312DEG 38KT 3958 8262 3894 8276

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
610 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

KYZ101>103-105-WVZ005-006-281045-
Boyd KY-Greenup KY-Carter KY-Lawrence KY-Wayne WV-Cabell WV-
610 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BOYD...NORTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE...
SOUTH CENTRAL GREENUP...SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...SOUTHWESTERN CABELL AND
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM EDT...

At 610 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rush, or near Cannonsburg, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Ashland, Grayson, Wayne, Beech Fork State Park,
Cannonsburg, Barboursville, Kenova, Catlettsburg, Ceredo, Fort Gay,
Princess, Coalton, Denton, Burnaugh, Naples, Rush, Durbin, East Lynn
Lake, and Centerville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 173 and 191.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 8287 3843 8260 3840 8257 3840 8253
      3842 8248 3840 8226 3804 8241 3827 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 295DEG 37KT 3834 8280

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
641 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-083>087-WVZ005>008-014-016-281115-
Boyd-Lawrence-Greenup-Carter-Jackson-Lawrence-Vinton-Athens-Meigs-
Gallia-Roane-Wayne-Jackson-Mason-Cabell-Putnam-
641 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL AFFECT
BOYD...EASTERN GREENUP...EAST CENTRAL CARTER...NORTH CENTRAL
LAWRENCE...MEIGS... LAWRENCE...GALLIA...JACKSON...VINTON...NORTHERN
PUTNAM...WEST CENTRAL ROANE...CENTRAL JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE...MASON AND CENTRAL CABELL COUNTIES...

At 639 AM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rainfall located along a line extending from 6 miles north of Point
Pleasant to 8 miles northeast of Lake Vesuvius. Movement was
southeast at 45 mph.

A quick 1.5 to 2 inches of rain can be expected.
.

Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Ashland, Portsmouth, Ironton, Jackson, Wellston, Point
Pleasant, Gallipolis, Ripley, Coal Grove, Pomeroy, Mcarthur, Oak
Hill, Rio Grande, Albany, Chesapeake, Racine, Proctorville, Rutland,
and Cannonsburg.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 123 and 146.
 Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 179 and 191.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 25.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Motorists should allow for extra time for the morning
commute.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 8289 3874 8287 3862 8286 3857 8282
      3860 8274 3868 8276 3868 8270 3875 8270
      3875 8266 3883 8265 3885 8266 3886 8276
      3894 8275 3895 8281 3937 8275 3937 8252
      3939 8250 3874 8140 3819 8278 3875 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1039Z 328DEG 39KT 3894 8215 3871 8254

30