Extreme Cold Watch 2, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
450 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
450 AM Update...

Updated Aviation discussion. Previous discussion below.

Added details regarding the secondary Arctic surge for Saturday
night and the potential for lake-enhanced moisture from the
Upper Great Lakes. Uncertainty with track/intensity of mid-week
system.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Frontogenetically-forced snow event today through Saturday
morning will focus accumulations of 2 to 5 inches across the
southern coalfields and southwest Virginia.

2. Cold persists through Sunday morning with wind chills as low
as -25F in the mountains.

3. Secondary Arctic surge Saturday night will bring a renewed
push of frigid air and lake-enhanced snow showers and flurries
to the northern lowlands and Northeast Mountains.

4. Clipper system Tuesday night into Wednesday presents a
complex forecast involving a potential warm wedge and mixed
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong upper-level trough will drop into the southeastern United
States from the upper Great Lakes today, and surface low
pressure system will develop off the coast of the Carolinas by
this evening. Analysis of forecast vertical profiles for
in the southern coalfields shows the column moistening rapidly
through the morning with saturation occurring within a deep
dendritic growth zone. Given H925 temperatures near -10C and
H850 temperatures near -15C, snow-to-liquid ratios will be
quite high, likely between 15:1 and 20:1. This will result in 3
to 5 inches of dry, fluffy snow across McDowell, Dickenson, and
Buchanan counties. Amounts will reach advisory criteria just
north of the warned area, and could see warning level amounts
sneaking into the southern edge of the advisories with even a
minor northerly shift in the band.

As the low pressure system moves up the eastern seaboard and
strengthens into a Nor'easter, synoptically forced snow will
eventually end across our area late Saturday night, but
northerly winds will increase. Wind gusts are currently
expected to reach 15-20 mph across the lowlands and 35-40 mph
across the higher elevations of the mountains Sunday on the
backside of low pressure. Although Lake Erie is mostly frozen
over, a moisture contribution from Lake Huron/Superior will
likely keep at least some flurries going Saturday night into
Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An exceptionally dry and frigid Arctic air mass remains
entrenched across the northern half of the forecast area this
morning with widespread temperatures in the single digits. The
00Z sounding from Pittsburgh reveals a precipitable water value
of only 0.11 inches and H850 temperatures around -20C. Wind
chills in the Northeast Mountains are expected to range from 10
to 15 below zero through mid-morning, with cold weather
advisories in effect.

Another push of cold air will spill into the area tonight into
Saturday morning, with portions of southeast Ohio seeing the
coldest air with wind chills potentially 10 to 15 below zero.
Another cold weather advisory has been issued for the northern
half of the forecast area. With the aforementioned winds in key
point 1 on Saturday night into Sunday will likely need some
additional cold weather headlines, advisories for some of the
lowlands and warning for the mountains. Will continue to address
these concerns day by day in coordination with our neighboring
offices.

This extended stretch of very cold weather may finally break by
the middle of next week as a ridge builds into the Ohio Valley,
although the spread in model solutions is fairly wide.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

As the coastal Nor'easter pulls away on Saturday, low-level flow
will back to the north, ushering in a secondary surge of Arctic
air. Despite Lake Erie being largely frozen over, model
soundings indicate a moisture fetch from Lake Superior will
interact with steep low-level lapse rates. This will maintain
lake-enhanced flurries and light snow showers across southeast
Ohio, the northern lowlands, and the Northeast Mountains through
Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday centers on a fast
moving clipper system, with the primary challenge being the
degree of interaction between the northern and southern streams.
A purely northern stream solution would maintain a cold column,
resulting in light snow for the entire area. However, several
solutions suggest a more substantial southern stream
contribution, which would transport higher moisture content air
into the region. This scenario would establish a significant
warm wedge, with H850 temperatures rising above 0C while
surface temperatures remain around the freezing mark in the
valleys. Such a thermal profile could lead to mixed
precipitation in the typical warm wedge.

Given a fairly widespread in solutions for mid-week, forecast
confidence for mid-week and beyond is lower than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail at most terminals this morning, though a
shallow MVFR stratocumulus deck is lingering near Clarksburg and
Elkins with some very light flurries. Conditions will
deteriorate across the south after 15Z Friday as light snow
spreads into the southern coalfields. Beckley is expected to
experience sustained IFR visibilities in snow between 15Z today
and 06Z Saturday. Further north, terminals should remain VFR,
though occasional MVFR ceilings and light snow flurries are
possible, especially tonight. Surface winds will remain from the
north to northeast at 5-10KTs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: If the frontogenetic band shifts further
north than anticipated, Charleston and Huntington could see
IFR conditions this afternoon/evening. Timing of onset of snow
at Beckley could vary by a couple hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 01/30/26
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible through Sunday in snow showers, mainly south and
east of the Ohio River.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for WVZ006>011-014-016>020-028>032-039-040-
     521>526.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST Saturday for WVZ033.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ024>026-034-515-516.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ523-
     526.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for KYZ101>103.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST Saturday for VAZ003-004.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP