Extreme Cold Warning 4, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
500 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A winter storm watch has been issued for some of the mountains and
adjacent counties for the Clipper system on Friday into Saturday.

Chances for snow showers have been reduced with the disturbance
on Sunday, with only slight chances for precipitation forecast
at this time, mainly across the northern mountains.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Friday and Friday
  night for the WV central and northern mountains. A cold front
  brings mostly snow Friday into Saturday.

- 2) Higher elevations of the northern WV mountains will likely
  need Wind Advisories Friday night into Saturday.

- 3) Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed at times
  over the weekend.

- 4) A significant warm up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An arctic cold front will push through the region on Friday.
This will bring snow to the region, although some rain could mix
in during the day Friday over southern West Virginia and
southwest Virginia. As colder air moves in behind the cold
front, the precipitation will become all snow areawide Friday
night. This will transition into an upslope snow event Friday
night. At the current time, it appears that the lowlands will
generally see 1 to 3 inches of snow, with 4 to 8 inches in the
West Virginia mountains. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for
Friday and Friday night for the north and central mountains of
West Virginia.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strong wind gusts can be expected behind an arctic cold Friday
night into Saturday. Wind Advisories will likely be need for
the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The combination of arctic air and winds behind Friday's cold
front will create dangerous wind chills late Friday night into
Saturday. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed. In the
highest elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains,
these headlines may be needed into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

A significant warming trend can be expected next week. All
locations will get well above freezing with 50s expected across
central and southern West Virginia, portions of southeast Ohio,
northeast Kentucky and southwest Virginia.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Expect MVFR to IFR conditions over extreme southern and eastern
West Virginia and southwestern Virginia early this morning.
Further north and west, expect VFR conditions.

Conditions will transition to VFR on today. VFR will remain for
most of the region tonight, although some MVFR conditions could
develop along the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for BKW, high elsewhere.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of IFR breaking in BKW could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 02/05/26
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible Friday and Friday night/early Saturday
in snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY