Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
311 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Better chances for valley rain and mountain snow expected today
  with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. Thunderstorms
  in Western Nevada this afternoon have potential to become
  severe.

* Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for the Sierra and
  Northeast California for significant snowfall and strong winds
  with impacts starting as early as Friday evening for the
  Eastern Sierra.

* Precipitation chances will continue through the weekend as
  temperatures trend cooler and winds increase. Light snow showers
  may be possible down to the valley floor in the Sierra Front on
  Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current radar imagery reports showers continuing in the region this
morning mostly in Pershing and Churchill Counties as well as the
Sierra with a few stray showers in other areas. Forecast guidance
shows an upper level low moving into N CA today which starts open
into a shortwave and become absorbed within a stronger PacNW low
right behind it tonight. This upper pattern will allow for
precipitation chances to increase today to between 40-90% by this
afternoon. Upon looking at model convective parameters, forecast CAPE
values look to top off between 200-800 J/kg with midlevel lapse
rates over 7C/km and 0-6km wind shear reaching around 35-55 kts.
With this sort of unstable environment today, thunderstorm chances
will be 15-35% with storms being of the isolated to scattered
variety. Areas that see the higher-end values in convection
potential look to be Pershing and Churchill Counties as well as
adjacent portions of Washoe, Storey, Lyon, and Mineral Counties.
Because of this, the SPC has placed these parts of the CWA in a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms. This
means that storms that occur in these areas have the potential to
produce erratic outflow wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up
to around 1 inch in diameter. Not going to rule out severe
thunderstorms outside of the aforementioned areas, but they are
leaning non-severe currently (outflow wind gusts up to 45 mph and
small hail possible). Please have a way to receive weather updates
and alerts today and stay safe! While shower chances are seen
throughout today, the window for storms looks to open around
11AM-12PM with peak convection time in the late afternoon. Models
do show thunderstorm chances continuing in the NV Basin and Range
area going through the overnight hours though the severe threat
should diminish before today ends. Winds still look to increase
today as well with south to southwest winds gusting to 60-80 mph
at the crest.

With the stronger low moving into N CA through the weekend, Saturday
and Sunday see similar precipitation chances as today with a
slightly lower thunderstorm chance (10-20%). As area temperatures
are in a cooling trend (around seasonal normals today and below
normal through the weekend), snow levels will drop to around 7500-
8000 ft by this evening allowing for snow to start accumulating
especially for the higher portions of the Eastern Sierra. Going
through the weekend, snow levels in NE CA and the Sierra look to
continue to drop (with a brief rebound to around 7 kft on Saturday
afternoon) before getting to below 6 kft on Sunday morning. As
such, Winter Storm Watches remain in effect in NE CA and the
Sierra for Saturday and Sunday (the Watch in Eastern Sierra
starts on Friday evening as accumulating snow in the higher
elevations may occur sooner). For more details including snowfall
forecast amounts as well as the increased strong winds in these
areas (up to 100 mph at the Sierra crest), consult the Winter
Storm Watch product. The latest Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI)
shows minor to moderate impacts expected over the weekend with
pockets of major to extreme impacts at the Sierra crest. For more
information on what these impact levels mean, visit
weather.gov/rev/winter especially if you plan to travel over the
Sierra this weekend. There is a still good chance for a boom-bust
scenario situation based on how unreliable the models have been
with this system through this week. However, the latest NBM
probabilities show around a 50-60% chance for 2+ ft of snowfall at
the Sierra crest by Sunday night. Hopefully later today, confidence
will improve on forecast snowfall amounts so continue to watch
for forecast updates as they become available.

As for other areas of the CWA, snow levels are likely to come down
to 4500 ft by Sunday morning which could result in light amounts of
snow for valley floors over western NV, especially for the Sierra
Front. Foothill areas above 5000 ft could get a few inches,
generally less than 4 inches by Sunday morning. The Reno-Carson
City-Minden areas may just see a rain-snow mix Saturday night,
but there is 10-30% probability according to the NBM to see at
least 0.1 inches of snowfall by Sunday morning which could cause
some slick roads for those driving around at that time. In the
valley areas, gusts of 30-40 mph are going to be likely this
weekend with wind-prone areas potentially reaching 40-50 mph.

For Monday through around mid-week, drier conditions are expected
with temperatures starting to rebound before models indicate the
potential of another system pushing through the Great Basin. There
still is plenty of uncertainty with that next storm system, so
continue to monitor for updates as models come into better
agreement next week. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

Precipitation chances increase to around 40-90% and become more
widespread across the region today. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms (15-35% chance) are also forecast today within the
region with the W NV Basin and Range seeing a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms. Higher portions of NE CA and the Sierra
transition to snow during the day which may affect visibilities.
Area terminals expect to see increased wind gusts up to around
25-30 kts while Sierra ridge winds reach up to around 50 kts.
KTRK and KTVL will have MVFR ceilings starting around 10/17-18Z
while the other TAFs sites stay with VFR restrictions. Cannot
rule out a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon around all
terminals, which could produce sub-VFR conditions and erratic
outflow gusts. Will monitor for this and amend TAFs as needed.

Similar precipitation chances are expected through the weekend. Snow
impacts for Sierra terminals are looking more likely by Saturday
with generally around 5-10 inches of accumulation possible for
KTRK, KTVL, KMMH by Monday morning. Sierra Front terminals could
also see -SHRASN on Saturday night. -078

&&

Increasing chances for periods of moderate to heavy snowfall in the
Sierra today and again this weekend:

* Today: 40-80% chance of showers with a 20-40% chance afternoon
  thunderstorms along the Sierra. Any snow (1-5") will be limited to
  elevations over 7.5 kft (over 8 kft for Mono county). Snow ratios
  of 8-11:1 in Mono county, decreasing to 4-8:1 as you progress
  northward into the Tahoe Basin. Gusty south to southwest winds of
  60-80 mph at ridgetops also expected.

* Saturday-Monday Morning: Snow levels below 6.5 kft by Saturday
  morning, increasing to around 7 kft by the afternoon before
  dropping below 6 kft by early Sunday morning. Snow ratios of 8-
  12:1 Saturday before increasing to 12-15:1 by Sunday as colder air
  moves in. Low confidence on timing at this point, though the
  heaviest snowfall rates look to be Saturday evening into Sunday
  morning. SWE of 2.0-2.50" along the Sierra crest for the Tahoe
  Basin with 1.5-2.0" for Mono county. Snowfall totals up to 3 feet
  along the Sierra crest in the Tahoe Basin with up to 2 feet for
  the crest in Mono county. Strong and gusty south-southwest winds
  are expected on Saturday with ridgetop gusts of 80-100 mph
  expected.

-Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
     NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
     CAZ071-072.

     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Sunday evening
     CAZ073.

&&