Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
740 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 315 PM Monday...

1) Hot, with scattered to locally numerous convection with strong to
locally damaging wind gusts ahead of a backdoor front that will
settle into cntl NC Tue evening through early Wed

2) Above-normal rain chances continue through Tue, primarily over
the N and E. Lesser coverage is expected Wed through Fri, with more
widely scattered storms, then rain chances increase again heading
into next weekend. Above-normal heat will return briefly from the
Triangle south and east late in the week, but it won't be nearly as
intense or widespread as the recent heat wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot, with scattered to locally numerous convection
with strong to locally damaging wind gusts ahead of a backdoor front
that will settle into cntl NC Tue evening through early Wed

In the mid/upr-levels, convectively-perturbed swly flow will persist
across the Southeast, between a very slow-moving cyclone over the
mid MS Valley and a sub-tropical ridge across the swrn N. Atlantic.
While associated heights will remain generally neutral, and with
some tendency for the flow to be anticyclonic around the ridge,
small MCVs from upstream convection will probably focus mesoscale
lift amid moist and conditionally unstable profiles characterized by
PWs around 2-2.25" and 125% of normal. One such MCV, from deep
convection over AL/GA last evening, has tracked with its associated
mid-level cloud shield newd and into the srn Piedmont of NC this
afternoon. It should continue to progress newd and across the nrn NC
Piedmont and s-cntl to sern VA through this evening. Another MCV
appears to have developed, according to KRAX and KCAE mid-level
velocity data, within a convective cluster that has more recently
developed out of cntl SC. This feature will follow a similar
trajectory as the first, though slightly farther east (across the
Sandhills and ern Piedmont) and trailing by a couple of hours.

At the surface, the pattern will remain a generally persistence one
in and around cntl NC, with an Appalachian-lee trough extending
across the NC Piedmont. A weak lee and increasingly frontal low over
the Middle Peninsula of VA this afternoon will sag swd with an
associated backdoor, outflow-reinforced front and into at least n-
cntl NC Tue evening-night.

In this similar/persistence pattern, though more-moist at the
surface and through the mid/upr-levels, multi-cell convection will
continue to focus ahead of the aforementioned MCVs and along
outflow, with newd propagation across most all of cntl NC through
the evening. While most areas will generally be impacted, its
inherent multi-cell nature will favor heavy, convective rain for
some and barely measurable, decaying stratiform rain for others.

Although DCAPE has decreased given the increasing deep moisture (PWs
around 2" vs 1.5" of Sun), moderate to strong instability (highest
and in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg centered in the srn Coastal Plain
and ern Sandhills) will support water-loaded/wet microbursts, though
probably fewer in number than Sun given the diminished DCAPE. The
environment will be very similar yet again on Tue, with probably
similar coverage and risk of downburst winds.

While temperatures Tue will also probably be a couple or so degrees
less hot on average than those of today, slightly richer
moisture/higher surface dewpoints will probably yield yet another
day of heat index values of 100 to 105 F for all but the nw
Piedmont. Another Heat Advisory may be needed for a portion of the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where heat index values may reach or
marginally exceed 105 F.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above-normal rain chances continue through Tue,
primarily over the N and E. Lesser coverage is expected Wed through
Fri, with more widely scattered storms, then rain chances increase
again heading into next weekend. Above-normal heat will return
briefly from the Triangle south and east late in the week, but it
won't be nearly as intense or widespread as the recent heat wave.

PWs will remain around 150% of normal over northern and NE NC Tue,
ahead of a baggy mid level shortwave trough extending from New
England through PA and the Ohio Valley to AR. The corresponding
surface cold front will approach but remain to our N and NW, keeping
us firmly in the warm sector with a surface trough holding through
the Piedmont. Steering flow and deep layer bulk shear will remain
weak Tue, keeping the overall severe threat in check despite
expected moderate SBCAPE and DCAPE near 800 J/kg (although
convective debris cloudiness may curb our instability somewhat). But
the risk of localized heavy rain rates will persist over the
northern and NE CWA, given a likely slow storm motion and the
potential for training and congealing cells within a high-PW
environment, thus pockets of minor urban flooding can't be ruled
out. WPC continues a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over our NE
half Tue.

Previous model runs had favored the mid-level trough and associated
surface cold front dropping SE into, if not fully through, NC, Wed
and Wed night. But more recent model solutions have trended toward a
less-phased trough, with its northern portion pushing E off New
England and the northern Mid Atlantic Wed, while the slower southern
portion drifts E over the central and lower Miss Valley into W KY
and W TN. This results in a flat shortwave ridge over the Carolinas
mid-week, and a surface front that holds near or N of the NC/VA
border (although the Piedmont troughing appears anchored in place).
With weak steering flow, possible warm mid levels and a downturn in
PW, we should see reduced shower/storm coverage Wed/Thu, with just
widely-scattered, late-day garden-variety convection. The southern
portion of the mid level shortwave trough is expected to deamplify
and finally progress eastward, passing by to our N by late Thu into
early Fri. While this may accelerate our mid level flow (esp across
our N) Fri, the flat W-E ridging to our S should still limit
moisture transport into central NC, with few other mechanisms to
force ascent, and expect another day of spotty shower/storm
coverage.

By the weekend, the strengthening blocking ridge over the central
Rockies and Four Corners region will allow longwave troughing to
gradually dig over the eastern CONUS, with strengthening NW flow
allowing perturbations to dive SE into our area. This should result
in an upward trend in moisture, clouds, and shower/storm chances by
Sat/Sun.

Regarding temps, readings are expected to stay generally above
normal through mid to late week, peaking on Friday when highs should
reach the mid to upper 90s. This heat won't be nearly as intense or
long-lived as our most recent heat wave. But we do have patches of
Extreme levels of experimental Heat Risk popping up by Fri over
portions of the area, along with heat indices peaking at or just
over 105F, so small areas of heat headlines may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM Monday...

Main challenge is the immediate near-term of the forecast with
respect to thunderstorms across the region. Based on latest
satellite and radar trends, opted for storms to continue until 01-
02z at GSO, INT, RDU, RWI, with the highest confidence at RDU and
RWI. There is the potential that storms could linger longer than
currently anticipated, but we opted to dissipate storms by 02z given
nocturnal stabilization. RWI/RDU is likely to receive decent
rainfall from storms this evening. With that, there is the potential
for fog or stratus early Tue morning. For now, we have the highest
confidence at RWI, but stratus or fog may need to be introduced at
RDU as well. Light winds tonight will become south-southwest again
Tuesday afternoon. The high-res ensembles are not in agreement on
storm location and timing for Tuesday, but a similar scenario will
be in place. For now, opted for PROB30 groups during the favor
afternoon and evening time frame.

Outlook: Scattered to locally numerous convection will probably
result again each afternoon through mid-week, as a series of mid-
level disturbances overspread a persistent, Appalachian-lee/Piedmont
surface trough and eventually a backdoor front likely to settle into
and become quasi-stationary over NC Tuesday night through Thursday
morning. Morning stratus/mist may also result in areas that receive
convective rain the previous afternoon-evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ024-
025-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWS/GH
AVIATION...AK/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
346 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NCZ073-074-083-084-072000-
Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-Richmond-
346 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain will result through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms storms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain are expected again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Additionally, heat index values will be between 100 and 105 degrees
at times each afternoon this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ024-025-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-072000-
Orange-Durham-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
346 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Additionally, scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging downburst
wind gusts and locally heavy rain will result through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms storms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain are expected again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Additionally, heat index values will be between 100 and 105 degrees
at times each afternoon this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ011-027-028-072000-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-
346 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain will result through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms storms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain are expected again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Additionally, heat index values will be between 100 and 105 degrees
at times this week, especially on Tuesday and again Thursday and
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ007>010-021>023-026-038-039-072000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Franklin-
Davidson-Randolph-
346 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain will result through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms storms capable of damaging downburst wind gusts and
locally heavy rain are expected again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
701 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NCZ011-027-028-070000-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Halifax NC-
701 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NASH...NORTHERN
EDGECOMBE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 701 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
extending from 11 miles southeast of Littleton to 8 miles north of
Dortches. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Halifax, Scotland Neck, Dortches, Red Oak, Enfield,
Weldon, Whitakers, Hobgood, and Castalia.

This includes Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 173 and 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7732 3600 7741 3597 7739 3606 7809
      3630 7794 3641 7791 3644 7761 3640 7755
      3637 7755 3634 7759 3632 7757 3630 7754
      3632 7744 3626 7741 3624 7738 3621 7738
      3616 7727 3612 7724 3612 7725 3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 266DEG 17KT 3629 7781 3612 7790

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
714 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NCZ027-028-042-043-078-070015-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Johnston NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
714 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...CENTRAL
NASH...EDGECOMBE...WILSON AND EAST CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH
815 PM EDT...

At 714 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Elm City, or 12 miles south of Rocky Mount, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Nashville, Wilson, Elm City, Fremont, Dortches,
Bailey, Red Oak, and Princeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 141 and 105.
 NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 30 and 56.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 7735 3583 7739 3581 7742 3580 7747
      3576 7752 3557 7782 3543 7783 3540 7781
      3545 7820 3606 7808 3597 7739 3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 260DEG 12KT 3579 7788

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
724 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Falls Lake        35.92N 78.52W
07/06/2026                   Wake               NC   Public

            tree down Burlington Mills Rd / Ligon Mill
            Rd.

&&

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
725 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 SE Rolesville         35.87N 78.39W
07/06/2026                   Wake               NC   Public

            lightning stuck home in wendell.

&&

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
726 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Knightdale        35.76N 78.51W
07/06/2026                   Wake               NC   911 Call Center

            tree down on Old Stones Mill St.

&&

CA

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