Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation discussion to reflect the 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

1. Strong to severe storms will be possible today. Water loaded
downbursts will bring a primary hazard of damaging straight-line
winds.

2. There will be minimal showers and storms Monday through Wednesday
before widespread precipitation arrives on Friday.

3. Heat returns for Thursday and possibly Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 16Z, many of the CAMs (and esp the HRRR) have
underrepresented the existing convection that is currently moving
across the NC mountains and that raises concerns regarding
downstream convective evolution across central NC later today.

Overall, the severe weather threat remains dependent on the degree
of convective organization that can be maintained as mountain
convection moves east and interacts with a moderately unstable and
very moist air mass across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. MLCAPE
values of 1500-2500 J/kg (higher CAPE values east), steep low-level
lapse rates, and DCAPE supportive of strong downdrafts should favor
damaging straight-line winds as the primary hazard.  In addition,
the CAMs which are more robust with convection evolution and
coverage today also appear to be taking advantage of pre-existing
mesoscale dewpoint boundaries and perhaps the Piedmont trough
convergence and thus depict widely scattered single-cell storms
developing ahead of the convection that is currently to our west.
Given the aforementioned CAM uncertainties, greater forecast weight
will be placed on observational trends and the evolving mesoscale
environment.   It’s worth noting again that any of the
stronger/taller cells later today will be capable of producing
localized damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A front should generally be along the I-95 corridor
Monday morning and will continue to drift to the Atlantic coastline
by Tuesday morning before moving offshore on Wednesday. With central
North Carolina on the cooler and drier side of the front, the
chances for precipitation the next few days should be greatly
reduced. Any diurnally driven storms Monday through Wednesday should
be east of I-95 and relatively isolated in coverage. The next
widespread chance for precipitation will come with low pressure that
will pass over the Great Lakes on Thursday and continue northeast
along the Canadian/United States border Friday and Saturday. The
associated cold front could bring a late day storm to the Triad on
Thursday, but will bring most of its precipitation to central North
Carolina Friday and Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High temperatures will be noticeably cooler on
Monday, with values 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Sunday. Tuesday will
vie for the coolest day of the week with all locations remaining in
the 80s. Temperatures will then begin to rise again by Wednesday
with a return to the 90s, and some locations pushing triple digits
by Thursday. The timing of the next cold front will determine how
warm temperatures rise on Friday, but Saturday should drop back into
the 80s again. With lower humidity values through mid week, heat
indices will be similar to air temperatures Monday through
Wednesday. Increasing humidity along with increasing temperatures
may require a heat advisory on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

Through 18Z Monday:  Isolated to scattered convection will be the
primary aviation concern through the remainder of the day and into
this evening. We are currently monitoring convection moving across
the mountains and the potential for downstream redevelopment along
with additional cells east of this activity. The most likely window
for SHRA/TSRA impacts, including brief TEMPO flight category
reductions, appears to be 19Z through 02Z at most central NC TAF
sites, with chances lingering until around 04Z at KFAY. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. It’s worth noting that any terminals that receive heavier
rainfall may see brief post-convective reductions in ceilings and
visibility toward daybreak Monday, with conditions improving quickly
after sunrise. Otherwise, southwest winds 10–18 kt with occasional
higher gusts will continue through the period (stronger gusts in and
near thunderstorms), before a cold front passage around 12Z Monday
brings a shift to northwest winds at similar speeds.

Outlook: Diurnally driven convection remains possible at all
terminals Tuesday through Thursday, with the better coverage
expected south/east Tuesday–Wednesday and northwest Thursday. Brief
sub-VFR ceilings and mist may occur overnight into early morning
where heavier rainfall occurs during the afternoon/evening
convection.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926  KRDU: 97/1944  KFAY: 100/2022

June 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015  KFAY: 102/1944

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025  KRDU: 79/2022  KFAY: 77/2022

June 15: KGSO: 74/2022  KRDU: 78/2025  KFAY: 76/1926

June 18: KGSO: 73/2018  KRDU: 77/2025  KFAY: 76/2017

June 19: KGSO: 77/1970  KRDU: 73/2025  KFAY: 77/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for NCZ024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.

&&

DISCUSSION... np/TG
AVIATION... np
CLIMATE... RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
454 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

NCZ007>011-021>023-038-039-073-074-083-150900-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
454 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and bring primarily a risk for damaging straight-
line winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-150900-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
454 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Additionally, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon and bring primarily a risk for
damaging straight-line winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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