Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
720 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisory has been expanded to cover all of central NC
  until 8 PM this evening.

* A new Heat Advisory has been issued for Saturday where
  forecast confidence was greatest. This Advisory will be in
  effect from 11 AM until 8 PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Friday...

1) A new Heat Advisory has been issued for Saturday from 11 AM
until 8 PM.

2) Scattered to locally numerous showers/storms will be
possible through this afternoon into the evening hours.

3) A conditional severe risk persists on Saturday ahead of a
cold front.

4) A cold frontal passage Sunday will bring cooler and drier
air early next week, but not before some isolated to scattered
showers remain possible late this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A new Heat Advisory has been issued for
Saturday from 11 AM until 8 PM.

The Heat Advisory was expanded to all of central NC for today
until 8 PM. Surface observations across the northern Piedmont up
into Virginia have shown heat indices rising into 102 to around
105 and this will likely continue until convective outflow from
developing showers/storms cool the area or until 8 PM as
nocturnal cooling begins.

A cold front is expected to remain well to our north through
the daylight hours on Sat. However, the hot and humid air mass
that has plagued the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas this
week will likely be convectively contaminated by cloud debris,
lingering outflows, and pockets of rain cooled/moistened soils
from convection this afternoon. Additionally, A canopy of mid-
level convective debris cloudiness from the (probably weakening)
remnants of an overnight convective cluster from OH to the
Virginias may limit insolation and curb the heat over especially
the nrn half of cntl NC on Sat. And if that convective cluster
were to maintain intensity more than currently forecast, which
they oftentimes do east of the Appalachians, then a more-
prominent cold pool/outflow and possible ongoing convection
would further limit early day heating there. The airmass will
nonetheless have the potential to be as hot (or nearly so) as
previous days in the absence of those lower predictability
influences from convection/clouds. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for Saturday across the southern half of central NC where
confidence is greatest that at least two hours of +105 is
probable before convection/cloud cover move into the area. This
area may need to be adjusted with the overnight forecast update.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Scattered to locally numerous showers/storms
will be possible through this afternoon into the evening hours.

The leading edge of a cold front is beginning to work down into
northern VA this afternoon, but is expected to stay well north
of the forecast area. The primary triggering mechanism for
convection is expected to be along a leading pre-frontal trough
acting as a low-lvl convergence boundary and is draped near or
just south of the VA/NC border. The air mass in place remains
hot and humid with temperatures regularly in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees and surface dew points in the upper 60s to
low 70s. When combined with slightly cooler 500-700mb
temperatures on the northeast side of the lower/mid level
subtropical ridge over the southern Appalachians and extending
into SC, moderate to high instability is expected (1500- 3500
MLCAPE) around the initiating boundary and locations to its
south in central NC. Storm coverage and intensity remains
uncertain given the lack of a strong forcing mechanism and
minimal mid/upper lvl support from any upstream MCV's given our
location relative to the strong ridge.

If deep convection is able to develop, mean cloud-layer winds
of 10- 25 kts over the southern Mid-Atlantic oriented about 30
degrees off the initiating boundary should allow for convection
to shift off the boundary and track generally east-
southeastward. Deep layer shear of 25-35 kts should support
storm organization along a common cold pool within small scale
bowing clusters, although splitting cells and transient mid-lvl
rotation will be possible with short, straight hodographs if
storm collisions can remain at a minimum (00z HREF highlights
10-30% of short segments of either right or left moving storms
in the 6-11 PM timeframe).

Steep low-lvl lapse rates, high LCLs, and strong DCAPE, will
favor strong diabatic cooling within collapsing deep-convection
and result in the primary risk coming from damaging straight-
line winds, especially within any storm clusters oriented along
a common cold pool. Isolated large hail can't be ruled out, but
given the hot temperatures, it will likely require an incredibly
deep storm and/or some mid-lvl storm rotation to have the hail
survive its journey to the surface.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A conditional severe risk persists on Saturday
ahead of a cold front.

A decaying, convectively-induced mid-level disturbance over the
lower Ohio Valley will interact with a backdoor cold front
sliding south through the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. Deep-layer
shear will increase compared to Friday, with mid-level flow
strengthening as the East Coast trough digs further west,
supporting multicell storms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and large hail. A Slight Risk remains in place for the
majority of central North Carolina. This severe threat, however,
remains conditional. Upstream decaying convection out of
western VA could focus debris cloudiness across our northern
tier of counties. Realistically, a gradual thinning of these
clouds will take shape through the late morning and early
afternoon. A southward moving effective front/outflow may then
trigger afternoon and evening convection. Where that convection
initiates will depend on conditional factors mentioned, but
could be most focused from along and south of US-64 per the
latest 12z HREF. WPC has much of the area in an excessive
rainfall risk, but this is also conditional. Nevertheless, brief
heavy rainfall in some slow- moving storms could favor isolated
flash flooding given the anomalous moisture in place.

KEY MESSAGE 4... A cold frontal passage Sunday will bring
cooler and drier air early next week, but not before some
isolated to scattered showers remain possible late this weekend.

The cold front is expected to push through by Sunday morning.
However, the trend since Monday has been for a slow erosion of
the low-level moisture, coupled to the fact that a moist
northeasterly flow behind the front could favor upslope stratus
in the morning and early afternoon. The guidance is now honing
in on a weak mid-level impulse diving down out of WV/VA during
the day Sunday. Coupled to the still high dewpoints in the upper
60s for most areas, weak instability could support low-topped
isolated to scattered showers, especially along and west of the
Triangle into the western/southern Piedmont.

Drier air and more seasonal temperatures will arrive in time
for Labor Day and persist into Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday
should feature much lower humidity, with dewpoints expected to
range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs largely in the
80s. Unfortunately, this reprieve from the heat will be brief,
with high temperatures expected to rebound into the low-to-
mid/upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge is expected
to extend from the central US this time late next week as
opposed to over the southern Appalachians, which may limit our
overall heat risk. And ensembles continue to suggest a late-week
front sometime Thu-Fri. There is a large degree of spread,
however, in the trough/ridge pattern at this time range, so
confidence on storm chances are low, though highest late Thu-
Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

TAF period: While GSO had gusts as high as 30 kt with a thunderstorm
that passed just to the east, other terminals have not been affected
by thunderstorms this afternoon, although the potential cannot be
ruled out for some gusty winds and restrictions in thunderstorms
this evening, with RDU the only one with enough confidence to keep
in the forecast. VFR conditions are expected everywhere overnight,
with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast
for Saturday afternoon. The coverage of precipitation Saturday
afternoon should be greater than it was this afternoon, and
confidence was high enough to go with prevailing showers at RDU/RWI
along with PROB30s for thunderstorms at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. While
scattered showers are likely at FAY, the most widespread
precipitation is likely to reach FAY after 00Z Sunday.

Outlook: The highest chance for showers and thunderstorms will shift
to FAY/RWI Saturday evening, with another round of scattered
showers/storms on Sunday. Northeast flow behind a backdoor cold
front may support areas of IFR-MVFR ceilings Sun morning and Mon
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Records within reach this forecast period:

Record High Temperatures:

September 4: KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944
September 5: KGSO:  97/1954 KRDU:  98/2023 KFAY: 99/1932

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020
September 5: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 74/2012 KFAY: 74/1935

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Air Quality Alert until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ021>023-
038-039.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ042-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

DISCUSSION...AS/MWS/Kren
AVIATION...Green/NWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
805 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-051200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Wilson-
805 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Dangerously hot and humid conditions, and a chance of thunderstorms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail, will continue
through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ042-073>078-051200-
Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
805 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, a chance of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and hail will continue through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ083>086-088-089-051200-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
805 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, a chance of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and hail, will continue through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
542 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

NCZ011-042245-
Halifax NC-
542 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HALIFAX COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Halifax, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Halifax, Scotland Neck, Enfield and Tillery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7731 3607 7733 3604 7751 3606 7754
      3607 7753 3609 7753 3610 7760 3621 7776
      3639 7765 3637 7756 3634 7759 3630 7755
      3632 7744 3626 7741 3624 7738 3621 7738
      3616 7727 3612 7724 3612 7725 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 292DEG 15KT 3627 7764

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

22

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
601 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NE Drewry             36.49N 78.26W
09/04/2026                   Warren             NC   911 Call Center

            Tree down along Martin Rd.

0437 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Bullocksville       36.45N 78.35W
09/04/2026                   Vance              NC   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Bullocksville Park Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     Hail             2 N Greensboro          36.11N 79.83W
09/04/2026  E0.75 Inch       Guilford           NC   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0612 PM     Hail             4 NW Greensboro         36.14N 79.86W
09/04/2026  E0.50 Inch       Guilford           NC   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0611 PM     Hail             4 NW Greensboro         36.14N 79.86W
09/04/2026  M0.50 Inch       Guilford           NC   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0525 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Princeville        35.93N 77.49W
09/04/2026                   Edgecombe          NC   911 Call Center

            Tree down at US258 and NC122.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
649 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

NCZ022>024-039-040-042345-
Guilford NC-Chatham NC-Alamance NC-Randolph NC-Orange NC-
649 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALAMANCE...SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE...
EASTERN RANDOLPH...GUILFORD AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM
EDT...

At 648 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles east of Randleman, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Burlington, Asheboro, Graham, Randleman, Pittsboro, Siler
City, Mebane, Goldston, and McLeansville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 33 and 35, and between Mile
Markers 119 and 131.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 132 and 152, and between Mile
Markers 214 and 226.
 Interstate 73 between Mile Markers 85 and 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning may occur within these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7957 3625 7945 3568 7897 3552 7949
      3551 7968 3626 7999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 337DEG 16KT 3584 7967

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
653 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SW Mcleansville       36.06N 79.71W
09/04/2026                   Guilford           NC   NWS Employee

            2 trees down on the 2700 block of East Gate
            City Blvd.

&&

Green

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
746 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

NCZ007>011-026-027-050045-
Nash NC-Franklin NC-Vance NC-Person NC-Warren NC-Halifax NC-
Granville NC-
746 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PERSON...VANCE...
WARREN...NORTHWESTERN NASH...NORTHERN GRANVILLE...NORTHWESTERN
HALIFAX AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

At 745 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Ebony to Norlina to
near Kittrell. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Henderson, Oxford, Louisburg, Warrenton, Norlina,
Littleton, Kittrell, Stovall, and Castalia.

This includes Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 202 and 233.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning may occur with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7790 3651 7790 3648 7777 3648 7764
      3645 7763 3636 7785 3597 7808 3639 7882
      3654 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 291DEG 31KT 3653 7802 3643 7821 3625 7839

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LH