Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 PM Wednesday...

1) Convective coverage through this evening should be less than
previous days overall, but still expect scattered to numerous
showers and storms across the SE Coastal Plain and in the north and
west including the Triad and Triangle. A few strong wind gusts are
possible across the north.

2) Mainly dry conditions are expected on Friday before rain chances
increase again in the south on Saturday, though overall coverage and
amounts should be less than in recent days.

3) A drier and cooler period will follow from Sunday into Wednesday
with mainly isolated diurnal convection. The one exception is Monday
when shower/storm coverage looks greater.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Convective coverage through this evening should be
less than previous days overall, but still expect scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the SE Coastal Plain and in the
north and west including the Triad and Triangle. A few strong wind
gusts are possible across the north.

We remain in a moist SW flow regime, on the western periphery of
offshore-centered ridging and in the warm sector S of a weak front
to our N over the Ohio Valley and Mason Dixon line. Our PW remains
well above normal but slightly lower than yesterday, as shortwave
troughing dipping into the N Mid Atlantic and Northeast has tamped
down the mid level ridging, causing our mid level flow to veer to
more westerly. But we're still seeing moderate SBCAPE in the 2000-
3000 J/kg range, with decent heating having started with the lifting
of the morning multi-layer stratus, and our deep layer bulk shear is
around 30 kts, a bit higher than previous days. Regional radar
trends are fitting fairly well with earlier CAM output showing sct-
numerous showers and storms over central and NE SC across SE NC,
with another band of convection over the NC and SW VA mountains and
adjacent foothills. These two areas should culminate in peaks of
shower/storms coverage across the N Piedmont/far N Coastal Plain as
well as the E Sandhills across the SE Coastal Plain, through the mid
evening hours. With the improved bulk shear fostering better cell
organization and higher DCAPE than previous days, there's a risk for
strong to isolated severe wind gusts across the N Piedmont into the
N Coastal Plain. Isolated minor flooding remains possible where
cells can train, with the highest chance in the urban Piedmont areas
like the Triad area cities and towns which saw 1-3" yesterday.
Convective activity should dwindle and exit out of the central and
SE Coastal Plain shortly after midnight, with fair to partly cloudy
skies late tonight and patchy fog possible in the S and E.

As the front to our north settles S into NC Thu with a weakening
trend, pops will be largely shifted across our southern half, mainly
along and S of Hwy 64, as slightly lower dewpoints settle into our
northern areas. Isolated downpours are possible Thu afternoon in the
far SE, but the overall threat for heavy rain and any strong storms
looks quite low.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Mainly dry conditions are expected on Friday before
rain chances increase again in the south on Saturday, though overall
coverage and amounts should be less than in recent days.

The quasi-stationary boundary looks to be well to our south on
Friday according to recent deterministic guidance and the vast
majority of GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensembles. Thus Friday should be partly to
mostly sunny and largely free of precipitation, with fairly good
confidence. The next chance for showers and storms comes from late
Friday night/early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon (first
in the SW) as the stalled boundary to our south tries to lift back
north and a weak wave of low pressure associated with an upper
disturbance currently over the TX and OK panhandles rides east along
the front. The main chance for convection would be across our
southern zones, but given only slightly above normal PW values,
overall coverage and rainfall amounts do not appear high. Still,
this will depend on exactly how far north the low and boundary are
able to get, which is uncertain. Conditions will turn more
comfortable on Friday and Saturday as highs reach the upper-70s to
lower-80s (near normal) and dew points drop into the 50s. Forecast
lows Friday night are in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A drier and cooler period will follow from Sunday
into Wednesday with mainly isolated diurnal convection. The one
exception is Monday when shower/storm coverage looks greater.

Another low pressure system tracking across and offshore New England
will drop a backdoor cold front south through central NC on
Saturday. This will mostly put an end to our rain chances by
Saturday evening, with drier weather from Sunday into the middle of
next week under the influence of NW flow aloft as we remain on the
backside of longwave troughing over the North Atlantic. Still can't
rule out isolated showers or storms each day with disturbances
rotating around the trough and marginal daytime instability. The
best chance for this looks to be on Monday as a stronger shortwave
moves SE through the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic. Still, ensemble
mean rainfall amounts are less than half an inch as PW values are
not overly impressive. Temperatures will turn cooler than normal
from Sunday through Wednesday with highs in the mid-70s to lower-80s
and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

Much of central NC is hovering between sct and bkn MVFR-level
clouds, yielding a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs with VFR vsbys. The
remaining MVFR cigs are likely to continue lifting slowly, such that
by 19z-20z, VFR cigs should be prevalent and dominate through this
evening, outside of showers/storms. Our atmosphere is not quite as
damp as the last couple of days, which should cut down a bit on
shower and sct storm coverage, with a later onset time. But the
Triad (INT/GSO) is expected to see sct-numerous showers and storms
19z-00z, and we're already seeing this activity NW of the Triad,
expected to drop ESE. Confidence in showers/storms is lower at
RDU/RWI/FAY, but these sites should see a period of mainly showers
with embedded storms between 22z and 04z. Isolated gusts up to 30-45
mph are possible in and near any storms across northern terminals.
Rain chances will quickly dwindle by 05z-06z. Overnight, the arrival
of slightly drier air just off the ground and N-to-S passage of a
prefrontal boundary shifting surface winds to W and NW will lead to
a reduced chance of sub-VFR cigs compared to what we've seen the
last couple of mornings. Low level moisture will be highest at FAY
overnight, so they will see the highest chance of MVFR cigs, while
cigs should hold mostly VFR at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI, albeit with areas of
MVFR fog possible 07z-13z. VFR conditions are expected at all sites
after 14z Thu, but rain chances will ramp back up at FAY toward the
end of the TAF period. Surface winds will remain mainly from the SW
through sunset, 10-15 kts with sporadic 15-20 kt gusts this
afternoon (outside of storms), then light from the SW and W
overnight and from the W and NW starting Thu morning.

Looking beyond 18z Thu, the chance for showers and embedded storms
will remain high in the S (FAY) through the rest of Thu afternoon to
early evening, with lower chances at northern terminals. Otherwise,
conditions will be mostly VFR through Fri night as the front settles
just to our S. Then, as a disturbance aloft tracks E-to-W over the
Carolinas Sat and the front weakens and lifts back N, showers/isold
storm chances will return, mainly across the S affecting FAY with
lower rain chances in the N. Another cold front will drop south
through NC late Sat, and VFR conditions should prevail for Sun/Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006
May 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Danco
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
501 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

NCZ007>011-021>025-280915-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-
501 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few storms this afternoon and early evening could produce damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ026>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-280915-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-
Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
501 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
419 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

NCZ007>010-272130-
Vance NC-Person NC-Warren NC-Granville NC-
419 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
PERSON...VANCE...NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND NORTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from Yanceyville to near Clarksville, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Oxford, Roxboro, Concord, Stovall, Middleburg, Mayo
Reservoir, Steele Creek Marina & Campground, Kerr Lake, and Bethel
Hill.

This includes Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 204 and 224.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Kerr Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 7826 3624 7909 3624 7915 3654 7914
      3654 7830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 262DEG 26KT 3652 7909

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
546 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

NCZ008>011-026-272230-
Franklin NC-Vance NC-Warren NC-Halifax NC-Granville NC-
546 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT VANCE...WARREN...NORTHERN
GRANVILLE...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Norlina to Oxford.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Henderson, Oxford, Warrenton, Norlina, Littleton,
Weldon, Middleburg, Macon, and Gillburg.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 near Mile Marker 173.
 Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 206 and 233.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7790 3650 7782 3648 7776 3649 7773
      3648 7765 3645 7763 3643 7759 3620 7821
      3636 7874 3655 7826 3654 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 283DEG 30KT 3648 7815 3632 7859

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LH