Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
809 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 705 PM Tuesday...

1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for most of central NC
through 100 AM. Main threat damaging wind. Secondary threat
isolated tornado.

2) Dry through Saturday, then unsettled into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 705 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for most of
central NC through 100 AM. Main threat damaging wind. Secondary
threat isolated tornado.

There continues to be an isolated tornado threat within a
larger area of damaging thunderstorm wind threat as new storms
develop into north-central NC. There continues to be a low level
boundary (lee trough/outflow) in a SSW to NNE fashion from the
Triad into VA. Low level wind shear 30-35 knots exists with the
boundary. Severe storms have been rotating given the shear and
boundary. Mix layer CAPE is maximized 2000 j/kg over the central
Piedmont.

Deep convection will probably continue to develop into central
NC this evening, Shear profiles will be supportive of
supercells, particularly where coverage remains scattered and
cells discrete, versus a tendency for bowing segments within the
broken line of frontal convection. Storms should be enhanced
through late evening, and likely weakening as they move SE into
the Coastal Plain later.

Again, a tornado is possible with any of the initial
supercells. Incidents of wind damage are likely in the
developing clusters/bow segments.

Key Message 2: Dry through Saturday, then unsettled into next
week.

Late Week through Weekend: High pressure shifts from the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, settling over the Mid-Atlantic by
Friday. Expect near to below-average temperatures and fair weather
through Saturday afternoon. The next round of precipitation arrives
late Saturday evening into Sunday morning as tropical moisture
interacts with a developing stationary boundary.

Into Next Week: Unsettled weather persists through at least mid-week
as the stationary boundary lingers overhead. Plentiful Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will tap into this lingering  boundary, bringing
multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
region over several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

24-hour TAF period: An area of showers and storms is currently
moving through the northern Piedmont including Alamance, Orange and
Person counties. It will continue moving SE, potentially congealing
into a line as it moves through the rest of the Piedmont and Coastal
Plain (including RDU and RWI) through about 04z. Sub-VFR
visibilities from heavy rain, damaging winds, and an isolated
tornado are possible with the storms. The best chance of a tornado
will be in any of the initial discrete supercells, including one
which is currently over Orange County that approach RDU within the
next half hour or so. Showers and storms may reach FAY later this
evening, but confidence is lower down there. Meanwhile clearing is
occurring around INT and GSO as the convection is pushing south and
east of there.

Drier air will move in overnight behind a cold frontal passage,
putting an end to any rain chances. However, it may not get to our
eastern TAF sites fast enough to prevent some patchy fog or very low
stratus from developing there. Guidance is not showing a strong
signal for it, so confidence is not high. The best chance would be
at RWI, but it can't be totally ruled out at RDU or FAY. Winds will
shift NW overnight into the day on Wednesday, gusting up to 15-20
kts at times especially over the Piedmont.

Outlook: VFR conditions are generally expected until probably
Sunday, when lift ahead of a mid/upr-level low approaching from the
OH Valley will favor above average chances of showers/storms and
flight restrictions. Can't rule out scattered showers and storms
beginning in the west on Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Badgett/MWS/CA
AVIATION...Danco/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-073-291715-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-
115 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089-291715-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
115 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. The greatest threat will be damaging
wind gusts, though large hail and an isolated tornado will also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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