Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
721 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Although the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk remains throughout cntl
  NC, the most likely window for the relative greatest threat will
  exist over the Piedmont between 8 PM and 11 PM.

* Updated the aviation discussion to reflect the latest thoughts on
  the convective evolution tonight and timing for the 00z Thurs TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...

1) Although the Marginal(level 1 of 5) risk remains throughout cntl
NC, the relative greatest threat will exist over the Piedmont,
mainly between 8 PM and 11 PM.

2) Next widespread chance for precipitation comes Friday night
through Saturday night.

3) Temperatures will be near normal for the end of the work week
drop below normal for Saturday and Sunday, then rise above normal
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 PM Wednesday..

KEY MESSAGE 1... Although the Marginal(level 1 of 5) risk remains
throughout cntl NC, the relative greatest threat will exist over the
Piedmont, mainly between 8 PM and 11 PM.

Widespread (low) overcast, and also subsidence in the wake of a
convectively-amplified trough and MCVs across the Southeast since
last night, have kept cntl NC stable and dry today. However, the
poleward retreat of a warm front, which extended at 19Z from a lee
low near HKY esewd across the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain, will
yield lifting and scattering of the low clouds and related ssw to
nne diurnal destabilization across cntl NC through 22-23Z. Despite
what may be a relative minimum in larger-scale forcing for ascent
over cntl NC between now and 06Z, between the aforementioned
convectively-amplified trough (and 70 meter 500 mb height falls
observed at GSO at 12Z) and a perturbation that will shear quickly
ewd from CO this afternoon to the srn Middle Atlantic early Thu,
glancing influence from a couple of other shortwave perturbations
pivoting across the Great Lakes may prove sufficient to support the
development of showers/storms just upstream of cntl NC this
afternoon-evening. Specifically, scattered cells may develop along a
surface trough in the immediate lee of the Appalachians, one
anchored by the aforementioned lee low near KHKY, and also possibly
over the Blue Ridge in the next few hours - all of which should then
move generally ewd with wly mean winds of 35-40 kts, and should some
indeed develop, across cntl NC between 22Z and 03-04Z. VWP data and
forecast hodographs depict veering in the lowest 2-3 kilometers
beneath much stronger wly flow (50-90 kts) through the mid and upr-
levels. Those (supercell) shear profiles will conditionally support
splitting cells capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind
gusts. Low-level shear will also be adequately strong to support
isolated tornado potential, with strengthening of that shear with at
least some nocturnal, low-level flow acceleration centered around
00Z. That isolated tornado potential would be highest for right-
moving cells whose motions would be favorably aligned along the
retreating surface warm front across the Piedmont, where both shear
and low LCLs would also be relatively maximized.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Next widespread chance for precipitation comes
Friday night through Saturday night.

Tonight's cold front will drop south along the Gulf Coast, become
nearly stationary along the coast through Friday, then have a
coastal low develop along the Atlantic coastline. While the forecast
has trended drier for Friday evening, rain should begin to move into
the region from south to north Friday night into Saturday, with the
greatest chances of rain occurring Saturday morning. Rain chances
will then decrease, coming to an end by midnight. While this is
still three to four days away, the current forecast calls for
anywhere between a quarter inch of rain in the Triad to an inch of
rain in the southeast across Sampson county. Warmer temperatures
between 500 and 700 mb should limit any instability and have removed
any mention of thunder from the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures will be near normal for the end of the
work week, drop below normal for Saturday and Sunday, then rise
above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.

While tonight's front will bring drier air into the region, the
temperature of the new air mass will not be much different, and
highs on Thursday and Friday should be in the low to mid 70s. As the
coastal low develops, winds will take on a northerly component,
resulting in a chilly day on Saturday - locations near the VA/NC
border will struggle to reach 60 degrees, with low 60s elsewhere.
With clearing skies on Sunday as the low departs, temperatures will
climb slightly, but still remain mostly in the 60s. Monday will be a
transitional day with temperatures near normal, then southerly flow
will help raise highs into the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Saturday night should be the coldest night, with temperatures
ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s - too warm for concern
about frost potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

MVFR cigs has cleared central NC terminals with scattered 3,500 to
5,000 ft cumulus in its wake. Convection along and immediately ahead
of a cold front moving into/through southwest VA is expected to
shift across central NC between 00z until approximately 05z.
Scattered to locally numerous showers and mostly isolated
thunderstorms may affect any central NC terminals and bring briefly
heavy rain, risk for infrequent lightning, and gusty winds. Small
hail can't be ruled out from the stronger convective clusters.

Areas of fog and stratus may develop in the wake of that convection
early tonight, especially at RWI, amid residually moist low-levels
and ahead of a cold front and following drier air and light nwly
flow that will move across the region overnight. Mid and high-level
(VFR) ceilings and occasional light rain may lift into FAY Fri
morning; prevailing flight restrictions are not expected at this
time.

Outlook: Rain and flight restrictions will accompany an area low
pressure that is forecast to track along the coast of the Carolinas
on Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWS/TG
AVIATION...AS/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
408 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-300815-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
408 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few isolated strong to severe storms may be possible this afternoon
and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
916 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

NCZ007-008-022>024-300215-
Guilford NC-Alamance NC-Person NC-Granville NC-Orange NC-
916 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ALAMANCE...PERSON...
NORTHERN ORANGE...NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE AND NORTHERN GUILFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

At 915 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elmo to near Wentworth to Pine Hall.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Burlington, Graham, Roxboro, Mebane, Elon, McLeansville,
Concord, Summerfield, and Gibsonville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 128 and 131.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 132 and 155, and between Mile
Markers 221 and 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 7883 3607 7926 3602 7977 3622 8004
      3626 8004 3624 7915 3654 7914 3654 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 306DEG 28KT 3661 7918 3636 7973 3631 8003

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kren

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
943 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

NCZ073-300230-
Stanly NC-
943 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN STANLY COUNTY THROUGH
1030 PM EDT...

At 942 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Midland, or 10 miles southeast of Downtown Concord, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fairview In Union County, Locust, Oakboro, and Stanfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 8041 3533 8015 3516 8021 3516 8022
      3517 8024 3521 8025 3520 8028 3520 8030
      3518 8031 3517 8035 3518 8037 3517 8039
      3517 8042 3516 8044 3518 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 283DEG 24KT 3527 8052

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS