Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

* No appreciable changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

1) A strong cold front will bring widespread showers today, with the
possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms primarily south
and east of Raleigh late this morning.

2) Another strong cold front will shift across the region Monday and
bring a low-predictablity risk for severe weather, primarily in the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

1) A strong cold front will bring widespread showers today, with the
possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms primarily south
and east of Raleigh late this morning.

Water vapor imagery this morning depicted a strong vort max moving
across and triggering convection over the Gulf states. A few weaker
perturbations were also evident stretching light to moderate
rainfall north into the southern Appalachians.

At the sfc, latest analysis depicted the strong cold front just west
of the NC mountains pushing into far eastern TN.  Dew points across
central NC this morning aren't overly impressive, largely in the mid
50s to lower 60s with higher dew points locked ahead of the
advancing squall line in the Deep South. However, with time, expect
some of that deeper moisture to advect north into our area ahead of
the advancing cold front. As strong mid-level height falls spread
across the southeast this morning, the line of convection will push
east across central NC through mid afternoon.

Strengthening flow aloft will increase bulk layer shear upwards of
60 kts during this time. As such, if any instability can be realized
later this morning/early afternoon a low-end severe threat will be
possible. The 00Z HREF updraft helicity swaths were largely
clustered along the NC/SC border up into the Sandhills and Coastal
Plain which generally aligns with latest upstream radar and
observational trends.  Forecasted hodographs largely indicate strong
mid/upper-level shear, with weaker lower-level shear. As such, think
that any organized storms would largely favor a severe wind gust
threat via mixing of stronger winds aloft to the sfc and a lesser
hail threat. While an isolated tornado can't be ruled out, the
better instability/kinematic combo for tornadoes will be to our
south.

The severe threat should largely end by ~19Z as the cold front
quickly sweeps east of our area. Although lingering light
precipitation will be possible through ~21Z. Some CAMs are trying to
generate snow on the back-end of the exiting precipitation along the
NC/VA border. However, looking at forecast soundings in this
vicinity, saturation in the DGZ is limited, and dry air quickly
advects in from the west. As such, while there could be a few flakes
that mix in across the NC/VA border no accumulation nor impacts
would be expected.

Rather anomalous warm temperatures this morning should drastically
cool with frontal passage this morning/early afternoon. Overnight
temps tonight will drop into the lower 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Another strong cold front will shift across the
region Monday and bring a low-predictablity risk for severe weather,
primarily in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

Overall there is reasonably good confidence in the evolution of the
mid/upper level pattern within the medium range. A more highly
amplified system is expected to develop over the northern/central
CONUS Sun and progress eastward into the Great Lakes into the TN
Valley by Mon. At the surface, this will result in a stationary
boundary over the Carolinas to lift northward as a warm front Sun
into Sun evening as surface high pressure strengthens off the
Northeast coast while at the same time low pressure deepens over the
OH Valley. Strengthening southwesterly flow will result in a narrow
window of moisture return into the region ahead of yet another
strong cold frontal passage.

The overwhelming trend within the ensemble guidance is a slightly
slower and more amplified trough as it progresses through the
Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This has resulted in a roughly
6hr-12hr delay in the cold fropa among mean MSLP fields, with the
most likely timing now centered in the 15z Mon to 00z Tues; which is
diurnally favorable for severe weather. A complication to the
convective risk appears to be a signal for morning stratus layer,
especially in the initially upslope region into the Piedmont.
Instability still appears to weak overall (500 J/kg or less and
maximized over the Coastal Plain) and result in a highly conditional
high-shear, low-cape setup that will need to be watched closely.
Mostly straight hodographs with 40-60 kts of deep layer shear
oriented parallel to the cold front will favor strong to severe
winds to be the primary severe hazard if a severe threat were to
develop. Low-level shear of > 20 kts and 0-1 SRH of > 100 m2/s2 also
suggests a low-end tornado threat can't be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...

The sfc cold front and associated showers have entered the NC
Foothills this morning. Showers should start to impact KINT/KGSO by
~12 to 13Z, with accompanying MVFR ceilings likely at times (any
steadier rain could drop ceilings to IFR briefly). This convection
should move through the rest of central NC through ~21Z when it'll
push east of our area. Associated brief drops to MVFR/IFR are likely
at all terminals through this period. Instability may favor a low-
end storm threat, most favored at FAY, where a TEMPO for TSRA was
maintained. VFR should return by ~00Z.

Sswly sfc gusts will pick up here shortly ahead of the surging cold
front (strongest at KFAY/KRWI). Expect a quick surge of nwly gusts
immediately behind the front before diminishing overnight.

Outlook: VFR returns Fri into Sat, with some gusty sswly sfc flow
possible Friday and again on Monday. Increasing moisture return
followed by another cold front will bring a return to sub-VFR
conditions and showers on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/AS
AVIATION...Luchetti/Kren

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1034 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

NCZ007>011-021>025-038-131445-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Davidson-
1034 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ026>028-039>041-073-074-131445-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-
1034 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of strong to severe storms
through early this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. The main
hazard is locally damaging winds, although isolated hail will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ042-043-075>078-083>086-088-089-131445-
Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
1034 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1057 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

NCZ040-075>077-121600-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Harnett NC-Moore NC-
1057 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MOORE...NORTHWESTERN HARNETT...
LEE AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...

At 1057 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Biscoe, or 13 miles east of Troy, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Pittsboro, Carthage, Goldston, Whispering Pines, Broadway,
Robbins, Vass, Cameron and Lemon Springs.

This includes US 1 between Mile Markers 69 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 7962 3551 7956 3552 7955 3557 7955
      3577 7932 3565 7901 3561 7899 3560 7899
      3532 7883 3520 7966 3524 7967 3525 7970
      3528 7971 3531 7971 3541 7974
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 239DEG 35KT 3533 7966

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

22