Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Raleigh, NC

317 
WGUS72 KRAH 120035
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
835 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCC093-125-120215-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-260812T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hoke NC-Moore NC-
835 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHERN HOKE AND SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES...

At 835 PM EDT, While Doppler radar indicated the heavy rain has ended
across the warned area, up to 5 inches of rain has fallen and flash
flooding may be ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Southern Pines, Aberdeen, Pinebluff and Ashley Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Turn
around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 7958 3512 7958 3524 7916 3521 7915
      3519 7910 3513 7911 3509 7909 3504 7909
      3498 7938 3506 7948 3507 7957

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

10

654 
WGUS72 KRAH 120129
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
929 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCC093-125-120139-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-260812T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hoke NC-Moore NC-
929 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HOKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 7958 3512 7958 3524 7916 3521 7915
      3519 7910 3513 7911 3509 7909 3504 7909
      3498 7938 3506 7948 3507 7957

$$

10

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Two rounds of convection will be possible this afternoon/evening
  and again late tonight. Confidence is greatest, although still
  quite low, across the Piedmont for damaging wind gusts to
  occur later this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

1) Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM tonight for the southern
Coastal Plain.

2) Conditional risk for a line of damaging straight-line wind gusts
for this afternoon within a complex and evolving forecast.

3) The heat and humidity will continue into late week, with daily
afternoon chances for isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM tonight for the
southern Coastal Plain.

Central NC has been void of mid/high clouds from the waves of MCS's
rippling through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Although flow
just above the surface has been north-northwesterly via regional VWP
data and 12z RAOB's earlier this morning, a persistent surface
trough draped from central VA into the western Piedmont west of CLT
has allowed generally westerly flow to continue at the surface. 12z
RAOB data also shows a 6-12m increase in morning low-lvl thicknesses
which will support 2 to 4 degree increase in afternoon temps
compared to yesterday, yielding highs in the mid/upper 90s.

In combination with dew points remaining in the mid 70s through peak
heating across the eastern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain,
several hours of heat index values of > 105 are expected. Elsewhere,
a slight reduction in dew points into the upper 60s will curb heat
indices a bit and range from around 100 in the Triad up to 105.

Within the complex forecast pattern, there are many failure modes
for Wed in terms of dangerous heat. The lingering cloud cover from
upstream MCS activity over the Mid-Atlantic will be more probable
over the Carolinas on Wed and could temper highs by a few degrees
and prevent reaching the thermodynamic potential through the
afternoon. This factor along with the locations of outflow
boundaries from convection expected later today will likely keep
temp/dew point forecast confidence low until later tonight when the
dusts settles.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Conditional risk for a line of damaging straight-
line wind gusts for this afternoon within a complex and evolving
forecast.

Regional satellite and surface observations show a slowly moving
outflow boundary laid out northwest to southeast across eastern KY
into northwest NC, with some deepening cu extending into the eastern
Piedmont. An upstream MCS and associated outflow boundary is noted
diving south along the strong theta-e gradient with 2000-3000 MLCAPE
south and west of the frontal boundary into central NC.
Additionally, mid-lvl water vapor imagery shows a belt of drier air
over the TN Valley extending into NC, which will work to enhance
downdrafts through diabatic cooling. DCAPE values of 1000-1300 J/kg
is more than sufficient to strongly enhance outflows where storms
group together and form common cold pools. Central NC will be on the
southern flank of enhanced west-northwest mid-lvl winds with around
15-30 kts to work with (greatest north and east of the Triangle).

The environment is primed for strong winds over the forecast area
with clusters/swaths of 50-70 mph possible, however the threat is
entirely conditional. With the lack of any synoptic forcing for
ascent as MCV's will likely track north of the area across VA. We
will have to rely on outflow boundaries from prior storms (upstream
MCS activity or developing showers/storms across the eastern slopes
of the Appalachians) to spark more scattered to locally numerous
showers/storms. There is a potential for convective temperatures to
be reached anywhere within central NC, however, several degrees
warmer air-temperatures compared to the past few days with similar
dew points will limit 0-3 MLCAPE to only around 100 J/kg (compared
to 125-150+ J/kg over the past several days) with the added
difficulty of dry air entrainment to overcome from initial
convective attempts. Forecast SPC mesoanalysis data does show hints
of 125-175 0-3km MLCAPE developing around and east of CLT where
multiple convective attempts would be most probable.

Greatest confidence in location where damaging winds may change, but
current expectation is across the Piedmont, especially the western
Piedmont, where the track of outflow shifting across central/eastern
KY is most likely, and where preceding development in the high
terrain within the lee surface trough is possible. From the
longitude of the Triangle eastward, a similar environment is
expected, but may be void of much forcing mechanisms to spark
scattered convection and tap into the damaging wind potential over
the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3... The heat and humidity will continue into late week,
with daily afternoon chances for isolated thunderstorms.

Hot and humid conditions will persist through late week, accompanied
by daily chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will range from the low 90s in the
northwest to the mid/upper 90s elsewhere. High dew points in the mid
70s will yield peak heat indices in the low to mid 100s.

Relief arrives over the weekend as a frontal boundary approaches
Thursday and pushes through late Friday. Expect isolated to
scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, keeping heat indices
predominantly below triple digits. However, southwest flow quickly
returns early next week, bringing another round of temperatures in
the mid/upper 90s paired with triple-digit heat indices for much of
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

A complex and low predictability forecast is expected to evolve over
the next 12 hours over central NC. The intensity, track, and
longevity for a series of convective clusters as they traverse the
southern/middle Appalachian mountains and their state as they enter
central NC is the biggest forecast challenge and will primarily
affect aviation restrictions during that time. Where convective
clusters track, strong to severe and erratic wind gusts (35-60 kts),
heavy to torrential rainfall (<1-3 SM) and low MVFR cigs will be
possible, but predicting their location and intensity before they
develop is highly uncertain.

Best chances may be around the Triad terminals with less confidence
at RDU, RWI and especially FAY. PROB30s within the 18z TAFs have
been trimmed based on probabilistic data from 12z HREF/REFS and
hourly NBM text products. Dependent on how this first wave of
convection evolves, an additional second round of convection may be
possible between 03-07z, but confidence is even lower on this wave.

Outlook: Primarily diurnally maximized showers/storms will be
possible through Thursday and perhaps into Fri ahead of a frontal
passage and northeasterly post-frontal onshore winds into Sat.
Morning mist/stratus will be possible each morning into Sat,
localized where the heaviest rain falls from the afternoon and
evening convection.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ078-088-089.

&&

DISCUSSION...AS/CA
AVIATION...AS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
934 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-083>086-121345-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
Scotland-Hoke-
934 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather, but isolated
to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon
into this evening. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary
hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions continue to build over the area with heat
index values of 100 to 105 degrees expected to continue through
Friday. In addition, isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ078-088-089-121345-
Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
934 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, although is a low probability for widespread hazardous
weather, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon into this evening. Damaging straight-line
winds will be the primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions continue to build over the area with heat
index values of around 105 degrees are likely to continue through
Friday. In addition, isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-121345-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-
934 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon into this evening. Damaging straight-line winds will be the
primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions continue to build over the area with heat
index values of around 100 degrees are likely to continue through
Friday. In addition, isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
558 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCZ073-074-083-084-112300-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-
558 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ANSON...SOUTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN RICHMOND AND STANLY COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM
EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ansonville, or 13 miles south of Albemarle, moving southeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Wadesboro, Ansonville, Plyler, Fairview In Union County,
Polkton, Locust, Norwood, Oakboro, and Stanfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8034 3504 7983 3486 8011 3500 8030
      3519 8028 3520 8030 3518 8031 3517 8035
      3518 8037 3517 8039 3517 8042 3516 8044
      3516 8046 3518 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 321DEG 10KT 3516 8019

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

1

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
607 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Hail             6 WSW Norwood           35.19N 80.22W
08/11/2026  E1.00 Inch       Stanly             NC   Public

            Intersection of Old Davis and Aldridge Rd.

&&

Green

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
609 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCZ074-084-085-112315-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-
609 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SCOTLAND...SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND RICHMOND COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Rockingham, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rockingham, Hamlet, Hoffman, Ellerbe, Dobbins Heights, Norman, East
Rockingham, Derby, Sandhills Game Land, and Camp Mackall.

This includes Interstate 73 between Mile Markers 26 and 36.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 7974 3502 7989 3504 7988
      3505 7988 3507 7991 3510 7991 3512 7993
      3523 7980 3511 7957 3508 7958 3507 7957
      3506 7948 3502 7945 3477 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 308DEG 10KT 3511 7980

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

1

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
610 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCZ077-088-112245-
Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
610 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT AND NORTH
CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lillington, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lillington, Dunn, Godwin, Erwin, Coats, Linden, Buies Creek, and
Raven Rock State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 7897 3548 7889 3544 7861 3543 7861
      3541 7860 3540 7860 3539 7858 3539 7857
      3517 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 290DEG 13KT 3538 7885

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Green

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
611 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 SSW Lexington         35.73N 80.29W
08/11/2026                   Davidson           NC   Public

            About 7-8 large, mature trees down at the
            500 block of J M Penninger Rd.

&&

JD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
616 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

NCZ042-043-078-112315-
Johnston NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
616 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...SOUTHERN
WILSON AND EAST CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 616 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Fremont, or 16 miles northeast of Smithfield,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fremont, Kenly, Lucama, Stantonsburg, Black Creek, Pikeville,
Saratoga, Eureka, Buckhorn Reservoir, and Nahunta.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 116 and 105.
 NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 43 and 48, and near Mile Marker
56.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 7773 3557 7782 3543 7783 3542 7782
      3539 7783 3554 7820 3572 7813 3565 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 289DEG 10KT 3562 7809

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

1