Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
808 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* This afternoon's high temperatures continue to trend slightly
  lower.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 340 PM Tuesday...

1) This afternoon will likely be the day with the greatest shower
and thunderstorm coverage out of the next seven days. There are
threats for both excessive rainfall as well as damaging wind gusts.

2) Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue from Wednesday through Friday, mainly each afternoon
through evening. Coverage may become more isolated this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 340 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon will likely be the day with the
greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage out of the next seven
days. There are threats for both excessive rainfall as well as
damaging wind gusts.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to slowly expand in
coverage from east to west. Nearly all locations are forecast to
receive at least some minimal precipitation. The wind through the
vertical column of the atmosphere is minimal, which means both that
it will be hard for storms to become organized for any sort of
widespread severe potential in addition to showers/storms moving
slowly. The combination of slow moving showers/storms and very moist
air (precipitable water values >= 2 inches) is the reason that the
entire forecast area is under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall. It is possible that a stationary front,
extending generally from Roanoke Rapids to Wadesboro, could serve as
a focus for showers. In addition, there is a marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk for severe weather this afternoon across western counties,
primarily driven by a closed upper low over Georgia. Instability
values should be slightly higher closer to the low, and while there
is a high overcast sky across much of the region, the low could help
trigger some stronger storms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will begin to diminish around sunset, with minimal showers occurring
after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue from Wednesday through Friday, mainly each
afternoon through evening. Coverage may become more isolated this
weekend into early next week.

The closed mid/upper low over GA will weaken and devolve into an
open wave over the central/southern Appalachians on Wednesday, then
a flat shear axis by late week as it gets absorbed by the broad
trough over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile the subtropical high over the
Western Atlantic will inch its way westward, getting closer to the
Mid-Atlantic coast each day. Thus shower and storm coverage should
generally be less compared to today, mostly isolated to scattered in
nature, with the greatest coverage over the NW (in closest proximity
to the trough) and perhaps a secondary maximum in the SE (in closest
proximity to the sea breeze). Still, deep and persistent SSW flow
will continue to result in PW values about 100-125% of normal and
moderate instability. Thus localized spots could have rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr, and WPC has at least part if not most of central NC in a
marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall each day.

The Great Lakes trough will begin to shift east and flatten this
weekend into early next week, as the subtropical high extends
farther west to the Southeast US coast. This will result in more
zonal flow across the Eastern US and possibly a bit lower convective
chances, but there will still be some moisture and instability
around. So POPs are mainly low chance this weekend and slight by
early next week.

High temperatures will be mainly in the mid-to-upper-80s through
this weekend, except perhaps some lower-90s in the far south.
Forecast highs increase to lower-to-mid-90s early next week, and
with continued humid conditions, heat indices in the lower-100s will
be possible across the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 805 PM Tuesday...

Over the next few hours, expect isolated to scattered showers to
continue moving through the region, with the best chance of
impacting our eastern sites (RDU/FAY/RWI). With any showers, a few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, however there will be a
better chance for MVFR ceilings and lowered visibilities.

More widespread flight restrictions will come from low stratus
across the region tonight. Stratus is expected to lower ceilings to
IFR to LIFR, with associated lowered visibilities as well. There is
lower confidence in the stratus being dense enough to produce a
ceiling at RWI and especially FAY as they seem to be on a gradient
of denser cloud coverage. Regardless of where ceilings are able to
form, all sites look to return to VFR Wednesday afternoon. Brief
restrictions may be possible Wednesday afternoon due to diurnal
shower/thunderstorm chances, but coverage looks to be less than this
afternoon.

Outlook: Each afternoon into the evening, showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be possible, with less coverage expected this
weekend. Each night into early morning, restrictions may be possible
due to low stratus or fog, especially where it rains the previous
day.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Danco/Green
AVIATION...LH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
258 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-050700-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
258 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be capable of
producing rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour today, which may cause
some localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Slow moving showers and storms may produce an isolated flooding
threat again on Wednesday. While afternoon storms are possible each
day through the end of the week, the threat of flooding is expected
to decrease.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
433 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

NCZ021-022-038-042130-
Guilford NC-Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
433 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT FORSYTH...NORTHERN DAVIDSON AND SOUTHWESTERN GUILFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 431 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall. The showers with the
heaviest rain were located over High Point, moving west at
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Very heavy rain in excess of 1 inch in 20 minutes and
         wind gusts to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Lexington, Thomasville,
Kernersville, Clemmons, Bermuda Run, Huntsville, and Lewisville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 92 and 104.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 182 and 213.
 Interstate 73 near Mile Marker 103.
 Interstate 74 between Mile Markers 56 and 70.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Raleigh.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8043 3626 8027 3607 7990
      3592 8001 3592 8005 3587 8005 3574 8015
      3584 8043 3585 8043 3584 8040 3586 8039
      3588 8042 3589 8037 3596 8038 3599 8042
      3601 8042 3606 8046 3605 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 105DEG 19KT 3596 8006

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

PWB