Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
529 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms into tonight. Flash flooding possible for the
Aspen Acres burn scar, with a few severe storms possible along I-25.

- Daily showers and storms will continue over the mountains each
  day into next week. The eastern plains will be a bit warmer
  and much drier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Yet another round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Storms will continue forming across the
higher terrain through mid-afternoon, pushing southeast into this
evening. Latest CAMs and mesoanalysis, as of 130PM, show 1000-1500
J/kg of CAPE across our eastern plains, with 25-30 knots or so of
shear. Dewpoint depressions are on the large side, with dewpoints in
the 40s-50s along I-25, and subsequently there's a good bit of DCAPE
out there as well.

As storms shift to the southeast, they should intensify through the
next several hours. Brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will
be possible, along with gusty outflow to around 60 mph and
marginally severe hail, mainly along I-25. Most storms won't make it
too far east before dissipating, though once they gust out there's
always the chance for some lingering storms from outflow/boundary
interactions.

Storms will dissipate during the overnight hours, lingering longest
over our far southern plains. Moving into Friday, the upper ridge
flattens a bit over our region. Westerly flow aloft will still bring
some monsoon moisture to the mountains, allowing for scattered
afternoon storms. However, drier air will move onto the eastern
plains, limiting precipitation potential anywhere east of I-25.
Flash flooding will still be a concern over the Aspen Acres burn
scar, but otherwise thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature,
largely just producing breezy outflow winds, lightning, and brief
periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will warm across the area, with mid-80s over the valleys and high-
90s over the eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The upper ridge will continue slowly shifting east this weekend,
with strengthening southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will continue
to warm, with the far eastern plains hitting the 100-degree mark in
some places. Meanwhile, monsoon moisture will return the our
mountains, allowing for increased coverage of afternoon
showers/thunderstorms over the Continental Divide, with isolated to
scattered storms over our eastern mountains. Mid-level steering flow
will likely push a few storms onto the I-25 corridor as well, but
lingering dry air and downsloping winds near the surface will keep
most activity away from the eastern plains.

Late Sunday into early Monday, and upper wave will swing past to our
north, sending a cold front south across the eastern plains.
Activity over the plains remains limited, and temperatures behind
the front only cool a few degrees in the latest guidance. The
mountains will continue to see daily showers and storms. Looking
further into next week, long-range models suggest a slightly drier
pattern returning as the monsoon plume shifts a bit further to our
west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light and
diurnally driven.

With westerly flow returning to the region aloft, weak lee
troughing is expected to develop and tsra activity in the
regions of the TAF sites will be few and far between.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH