Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
509 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms on Wednesday, mainly over the
southern half of the area.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected over the Continental
Divide Weds and Thurs, moving to the plains Friday.

- Drier and hotter conditions through the weekend, with more monsoon
moisture returning next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Much cooler this afternoon, with post-frontal winds providing the
necessary upsloping for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Main
focus for activity will be along our eastern mountains, with storms
pushing southeast into this evening. Gusty outflow winds will be the
main impact concern, but if showers manage to linger over the Aspen
Acres burn scar, pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall could cause
flash flooding issues. Precipitation quickly dissipates tonight,
with cool, mild temperatures.

For tomorrow, the passing shortwave will shift to the southeast,
taking the best forcing along with it. Though some low to mid-level
moisture will remain in the area, the majority of showers and storms
tomorrow will be over the southern Sangres and the Raton Mesa area.
Once again, main impact potential will come from gusty outflow
winds. Heavy rain will be less likely to impact any burn scar areas,
but the chances are non-zero, as it will only take one round of
rainfall to cause problems over Aspen Acres. Temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer than today, in the high-80s to low-90s.
Meanwhile, dry surface conditions and breezy winds will allow for
the development of critical fire weather conditions over the
Continental Divide tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Late this week and into the weekend, the high pressure builds in
over the Four Corners Region. As a result, monsoon moisture will be
greatly diminished in our region, leading to a return to drier and
hotter conditions through the weekend. Some isolated POPs do remain
over the mountains, likely from elevated heating and the lingering
mid-level moisture, but little if any wetting rains are expected.
High temperatures will continue to increase, with the plains rising
back into the triple digits while the interior valleys see high-80s
to low-90s. More spotty critical fire weather conditions will be
possible, over the central mountains on Thursday, and potentially
over gap flow areas and the San Luis Valley on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Showers will be possible for another hour at KCOS and KALS,
though the main impacts will be shifting outflow winds at both
terminals. Otherwise, expect clearing VFR cloudiness at all
three taf sites with diminishing winds. There the possibility of
some VFR to MVFR stratus developing overnight at KCOS and KPUB
though confidence is low and will keep a scattered layer in both
tafs for now a after 10-12z. Otherwise, skies will be clear
with generally diurnally driven winds. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ220.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ220-223.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT