Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
515 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch in effect until 11 PM due to heavy rainfall
  potential on the Aspen Acres Burn scar.

- Warmer and drier conditions for the weekend into early next
  week with temperatures approaching and exceeding 100 degrees
  for the southeast plains Sunday and Monday.

- First round of Heat Advisories issued for the northern I-25
  corridor Sunday. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed
  for much of the southeast plains on Monday.

- Front for Tuesday will bring another uptick in thunderstorm
  chances with potential for heavy rainfall and burn scar flash
  flooding for the southeast mountains and plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Amplifying upper ridge out west will put CO under northwest aloft
tonight and Saturday.  Storms over the mountains and I-25 corridor
will be moving southward through the evening, with a little better
deep layer shear resulting in the potential for stronger storm
strengths. High res models indicate a couple rounds of
thunderstorms, initially peaking in the late afternoon and evening,
with the potential for some regeneration across the Pikes Peak
region/Park County around 8 PM which will drop southward into the
overnight hours depending on the model.  As stated earlier, repeated
rounds of storms could lead to training storms for the vulnerable
burn scar areas which is one nudging factor for putting up a flash
flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar. Light easterly winds
should keep dew points in the 50s banked up against the lower
eastern slopes of the southeast mountains, with surface heating
resulting in CAPEs of up to 1500 J/kg, which would support the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, as well as some marginally
severe hail and potential for damaging wind gusts.  Greatest concern
though will be the flash flood potential for the Aspen Acres Burn
scar.  Current watch goes until 11 PM and will maintain. 12z NAMNest
shows another round of rain possible across this area through 2 AM,
but it is the outlier in this later timing, and will maintain watch
duration as is.  Extensions can be made as better clarity is gained.
If this later round does occur, it looks like it is being forced by
some weak energy dropping down the the east side of the upper ridge.
It is likely that storm strengths will be weaker with this final
round.

Showers and thunderstorms will percolate southward through the
overnight hours with gradual clearing towards morning.  Drier air
works in from the north on Saturday cutting back the afternoon
thunderstorm potential.  Dew points out west and in the interior
valleys will drop back down into the 20s and 30s.  There will be
enough moisture for some isolated thunderstorms across the eastern
and southwest mountains with a little better coverage towards the NM
border in the afternoon.  But the risk for burn scar flash flooding
looks considerably lower and no flash flood watches are anticipated.
Temperatures will be generally similar to a degree or two warmer
than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The drying and warming trend continues for Sunday and Monday with
temperatures across the plains anticipated to crest over 100 once
again.  Heat Advisories have been issued for the urban areas of the
I-25 corridor where temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s put
it into the higher end of the Heat Impact Levels.  There could still
be some isolated thunderstorms across the southern mountains, but
these will be higher based with more of a gusty outflow wind
potential, and only spotty moderate rainfall.  Monday looks similar
but a few degrees hotter and it is likely that more Heat Advisories
will be needed over a more widespread area of the southeast plains.
Will let later shifts hone down that area as we get closer.  Highs
up to 106 will be possible on Monday.

A cool front pushes into the southeast plains Monday night with low
level flow shifting around from the east on Tuesday.  This will
bring another uptick in thunderstorms for the southeast mountains
and plains depending on how quickly low level moisture advects back
westward.  This will increase the risk of flash flooding on Aspen
Acres.

After a cool down for Tuesday, temperatures gradually warm again,
but the area will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft
with embedded shortwaves bringing episodic thunderstorm chances to
the area most days.  Main monsoon tap looks suppressed to the south
so moisture quality doesn't looks as high as it was this week.
Precipitable waters remain around to a little below normal through
the period.  So the signal for burn scar flash flooding looks
minimal for the time being.  But temperatures will be rebounding
back towards the century mark across the plains by late week.
-KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS
over the next 24 hours, with chances of brief MVFR
conditions if scattered showers and storms hit the
terminals. If storms do, brief reduced vis in heavy
rain and gusty outflow winds up to 40kts will be the
main threats. Skies clear overnight with generally
light diurnal wind regimes expected at all terminals.
More northerly flow aloft tomorrow should keep showers
and storms tied to the higher terrain, with generally
light east to southeast winds at COS and PUB, and light
northerly winds at ALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-011730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the
mountains and spread into the I-25 corridor counties. Training
echoes with heavy rainfall could lead to dangerous flash flooding
across the Aspen Acres burn scar through this evening. In addition to
heavy rainfall, one or two storms could become strong to marginally
severe, producing hail up to 1 inch in diameter, gusty outflow
winds up to 60 mph and lightning.

Thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours before
weakening and diminishing overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Drier, hotter conditions will arrive for the weekend.  Afternoon
temperatures by Sunday and Monday will reach well into the 90s to
lower 100s across the Plains, with the hottest conditions on Monday.

A return of showers and thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday through
Friday.  Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding on area burn scars, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

31/31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ071-074-075-087-088-312245-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Southern San Luis Valley CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
356 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO...EAST
CENTRAL COSTILLA AND WEST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
MDT...

At 356 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cuchara, or 34 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Veta, Gulnare, Spanish Peaks, Cuchara, Cuchara Pass, Indian Creek
on the southeastern Spring Burn Scar, Spring Burn Scar south of
Highway 160 in Huerfano county, and southeastern Spring Burn Scar
south of Highway 160 in Costilla county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 10533 3754 10499 3729 10469 3709 10521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 331DEG 17KT 3742 10504

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ067>070-312245-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft CO-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft CO-
416 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RIO GRANDE AND
NORTHERN CONEJOS COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 416 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Del Norte, or 26 miles west of Alamosa, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monte Vista.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 10648 3767 10638 3760 10604 3740 10614
      3740 10624 3738 10625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 298DEG 16KT 3756 10633

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
427 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ077-079-083-312300-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
427 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 427 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Canon City, or 34 miles southwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Royal Gorge, Canon City, and Penrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10539 3857 10528 3845 10502 3829 10526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 314DEG 17KT 3847 10525

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ088-094-010000-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
525 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 525 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Trinchera, or 28 miles north of Des Moines, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain, wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Branson and Trinchera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 10406 3736 10370 3722 10359 3700 10358
      3700 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 251DEG 17KT 3716 10394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
556 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ087-088-010030-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
556 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HUERFANO AND WEST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 555 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Walsenburg, or 27 miles north of Trinidad, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
I-25 from Walsenburg to Aguilar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 10480 3765 10463 3742 10438 3730 10462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 327DEG 15KT 3754 10468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
621 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ069-070-072-073-077>080-087-010100-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
621 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ALAMOSA...NORTHWESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTH CENTRAL FREMONT...CUSTER...SOUTHEASTERN SAGUACHE AND
WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 620 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles southwest of Florence to near Crestone
Peak to near Crestone. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Heavy rain, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crestone, Moffat, Great Sand Dunes, Crestone Peak, Silver Cliff,
Westcliffe, Rosita and western portions of the Aspen Acres burn scar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 10499 3799 10509 3781 10535 3775 10580
      3801 10592 3807 10556 3834 10530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 292DEG 4KT 3822 10531 3803 10551 3797 10578

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

mw