Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
233 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions continues through Friday,
  especially over and near the higher terrain.

- Strong to Severe thunderstorms remain possible across the far
  southeast plains through the early evening.

- Hot temperatures continue Friday, with a cooling trend and
  increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms for the
  Holiday Weekend into the middle of next week.

- Diminishing winds lessens Critical Fire Weather conditions into
  the Holiday Weekend, but increasing moisture and chances of
  precipitation brings the threat of flash flooding for area fires.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates increasing
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, as an embedded short
wave is translating through the broad upper trough in place across the
Intermountain West and Great Basin. Water vapor imagery and GOES Blended
Total Water Vapor data continues to indicate dry air in place across
south central Colorado, with current observations indicating dew pts in
the single digits and teens across higher terrain. Further east, dew pts
are in the 30s and 40s across the I-25 Corridor with mid 40 to upper 50
degree dew pts across the southeast plains at this time. Strengthening
lee trough across the plains is starting to develop breezy southwest winds
across the I-25 Corridor and mixing out low level moisture with the 1 pm
observation at the Spanish Peaks Airport (K4V1) indicating SW winds
gusting to 30 mph, with the temperature at 91F, dew pt of 12F and rh of
5 percent. Satellite imagery is indicating some CU developing along the
Raton Mesa and Rampart Range, with regional radars indicating a few
showers north of the Palmer Dvd and a thunderstorm developing across
Baca county.

For the rest of today and tonight, southwest flow will continue to mix
out moisture across the plains, with the potential for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms across eastern Bent, Baca, Prowers counties
through the late afternoon and early evening. Main threats from these
storms continue to be damaging outflow winds up to 70 mph, along with
the potential for hail up to the size of quarters. Further west, dry
air and continued breezy west to southwest winds will keep critical fire
weather conditions in place through the late evening, with current Red
Flag Warning remaining in place through midnight, though breezy winds
could keep spotty critical fire weather conditions ongoing into early
Friday morning across the southeast mtns and banana belt. The westerly
flow and and breezy conditions will keep rh recovery poor for the
ongoing wildfires.

Moderate west to southwest flow aloft remains progged across the region
for tomorrow, as model data supports another weak short wave translating
across the Rockies. With expected hot temperatures in the 90s to lower
100s across the plains, with 70s and 80s expected across the higher
terrain and continued dry air in place, Critical Fire Weather conditions
are expected once again on Friday, especially over and near the higher
terrain, were a very dry airmass will remain in place. Current Red Flag
Warnings remain in place from the I-25 Corridor westward from 10 AM to
midnight on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Latest model data continues to indicate weakening flow aloft as upper
level ridging builds across the Desert Southwest and into the Rockies
through the Holiday Weekend. This will lessen the threat of Critical
Fire Conditions areawide, though can not rule out spotty conditions
across the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. Further east, latest
models support a frontal boundary pushing into eastern Colorado
through the day Saturday, with low level moisture increasing behind
this boundary, leading to increasing chances of showers and storms
across southeast Colorado late Saturday afternoon and evening. There
remains uncertainty in how much moisture and instability will be
available across the area, however, with easterly low level flow,
combined with modest westerly flow aloft, there could be a few
strong to severe storms across eastern Colorado 4th of July evening,
with the most likely area along and north of the Palmer Dvd.

For Sunday, and continuing into the middle of next week, model data
keeps weak south to southwest flow in place with upper level ridging
across the Rockies. This allows for a slow moistening of the atmosphere
leading to increasing chances of daily showers and storms and more
seasonal temperatures through the period. This will keep critical
fire weather conditions at bay, however, the increasing available
moisture and weak flow aloft will bring an increasing threat of heavy
rainfall and flash flooding, especially across the new area burn scars,
where wildfires have lowered the capacity for the landscape and soil
to absorb water.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions remain expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours, save for the potential for wildfire smoke to bring
reductions in slantwise visisbility at PUB and COS later this
afternoon and evening. Breezy south to southwest winds at COS
and ALS to continue through the early evening, with breezy
west to northwest winds likely continuing at COS through the
evening. PUB looks to remain generally light easterly through
the afternoon with breezy southwest winds pushing into the
terminal late this afternoon and evening. Westerlies to continue
at PUB through the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Red Flag Warnings remain in place through Midnight for both today
and Friday for the mountains, valleys and adjacent plains. Gusty
winds may see a slower onset for some areas along the I-25 Corridor
both days. But as weak systems cross the mountains, winds should
increase into the evening hours necessitating longer duration Red
Flag Warnings with greater impacts continuing into the evening
periods. Poor overnight humidity recovery can be expected both
nights, but especially tonight along the lower east slopes of the
southeast mountains.

It will remain warm and dry over the higher terrain on Saturday but
winds will be lighter, with only spotty areas of critical fire weather
conditions expected. Further east, a weak front will bring increasing
low level moisture to eastern Colorado, with chances of showers and
strong to severe storms Saturday night. Available moisture will
continue to increase across the region through the middle of next
week, leading to increasing chances of daily showers and thunderstorms.
While the weaker winds and increased moisture will keep critical fire
weather conditions at bay, there will be an increasing threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially across the new area
burn scars.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ220>230.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to midnight MDT Friday
night for COZ220>230.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1157 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-031800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1157 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

High fire danger continues across the mountains, valleys and I-25
corridor counties, as southwest winds gusting up to 40 mph across
the higher elevations and 30 mph across the lower elevations,
will combine with humidity levels as low as 4 percent, to produce
conditions favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread.
Winds will remain gusty well into the evening hours for the
southeast mountains and adjacent plains, which will allow for
active fire growth even after sunset. Please heed all evacuation
orders, and avoid activities which could start a wildfire.

In addition, one or two strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible across the far southeast plains of Baca, Prowers and
Kiowa counties. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to the size of
quarters will be possible with the storms that look to develop
between 2 PM and 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

High Fire Danger will return for the same areas on Friday with gusty
winds and low humidity persisting well into the evening hours.
Temperatures will soar to between 100 and 105 across portions of the
southeast plains.

Saturday will remain hot and dry but will see lighter winds.  Then
moisture will increase for Sunday into next week leading to slightly
cooler temperatures and better chances for showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing wetting rains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
126 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

COZ094-099-022015-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
126 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BACA AND EAST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

At 125 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Pritchett, or 22 miles west of Springfield, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pritchett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 10322 3728 10329 3761 10297 3752 10271
      3728 10264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 209DEG 13KT 3732 10301

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
238 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

COZ098-099-022115-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
238 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PROWERS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 238 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Springfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes and Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 10271 3754 10276 3769 10248 3747 10233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 247DEG 26KT 3752 10266

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

COZ099-022130-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
302 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BACA COUNTY THROUGH 330
PM MDT...

At 302 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vilas, or near Springfield, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield and Vilas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 10256 3741 10263 3756 10243 3734 10228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 241DEG 16KT 3738 10252

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
313 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

COZ099-022145-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
313 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM MDT...

At 313 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Walsh, or 13 miles west of The Saunders Elevator,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Baca
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 10233 3751 10238 3764 10223 3745 10207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 242DEG 11KT 3749 10228

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe