Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
115 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High fire danger continues Sunday into Tuesday.

- Mountain rain and high elevation snow Tuesday.

- High fire danger returns Thursday and Friday, with a possibly
  increase in precipitation chances for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Currently...an embedded upper wave is currently lifting
northeast across Colorado this afternoon. This has triggered
scattered showers and thunderstorms, initially over the higher
terrain and Raton Mesa area. Temperatures have warmed nicely
across the Plains with 60s and 70s, while the San Luis Valley is
in the 40s and 50s.

Rest of Today and Tonight...the upper wave embedded in the flow
will quickly lift northeast across Colorado into this evening.
Moist, low level southerly flow has kept dewpoints in the 40s
east of I-25, and recent analysis indicates SBCAPE values in the
500 to 1000 j/kg range, while 0-6 km shear is near 30 kts. There
are a couple of threats this afternoon, one being gusty outflow
winds along the I-25 corridor as storms move off the higher
terrain and encounter a deeper dry surface layer. As storms
progress east into deeper moisture, hail looks to become an
added threat. Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph may be possible along
the I-25 corridor, and hail half to 3/4 of an inch may be
possible to the east. High-res model guidance is in good
agreement with this activity shifting eastward quickly, exiting
into Kansas by 8 to 9 PM. Dry conditions look to prevail after
the mid evening hours into Sunday morning. Overnight lows will
fall into the 40s across the Plains, and lower 30s across the
San Luis Valley.

Sunday...dry air will filter in across the region in southwest
flow by Sunday morning, with high fire danger into the
afternoon. Dewpoints will fall quickly during the morning hours,
with humidity values in the 5 to 10 percent range for most lower
elevation areas by the afternoon. Gusty southwest winds will
pick up by the afternoon, with gusts 30 to 45 mph expected. This
will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions for much of the
area, and extreme caution is advised with any outdoor burning
activities. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Temperatures
will warm nicely with 70s to mid 80s across the Plains and 60s
for the San Luis Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Models continue to struggle with the upper pattern evolution
from mid to late next week. One thing they do agree on is
continued high fire danger across the Plains.

Sunday night through Monday...persistent dry southwest flow will
prevail through Monday across southern Colorado. Flow aloft
continues to increase as the next upper disturbance approaches,
with another day of widespread high fire danger across the
region. Humidity values will fall back below 10 percent, and
southwest winds 35 to 50 mph will be possible, leading to the
high fire danger. Extreme caution is advised with any outdoor
burning activities. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for
Monday afternoon, and added Lake, Chaffee and Teller Counties.
After overnight lows in the 40s across the Plains, high
temperatures Monday will reach back into the 70s and 80s.

Tuesday...a quick moving upper trough will eject out of Utah and
into Nebraska on Tuesday. Expect high elevation snow to move
into the Continental Divide Monday night and prevail through
Tuesday evening. Several inches of accumulation may be possible
above 9 kft, with rain below that. Given the trajectory of the
trough, limited impacts are forecast across the Plains, with the
exception of the Palmer Divide where a stray shower or two may
be possible as a cold front arrives late in the afternoon.
Further south, more westerly flow will likely lead to another
high fire danger day, especially for areas along the south of
Highway 50 where humidity values will remain low, and winds
strongest. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Tuesday, with
upper 60s and 70s across the Plains. The cold front arrives
overnight, with northwesterly flow and cooler air working into
the area. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s for most of the
Plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...models begin to diverge Wednesday
with large differences into next weekend. Upper shortwave
ridging will move quickly across the region on Wednesday, with
spotty critical fire weather conditions in gap wind prone areas
along the I-25 corridor. By Thursday, the next upper trough
takes shape across the western states, but differences in track
and timing arise. The GFS and Canadian are more northerly and
progressive, with periods of high elevation snow, and high fire
danger for the Plains and San Luis Valley Thursday and Friday.
THe ECMWF closes off an upper low over Utah, and very slowly
track the system east, with more widespread precipitation Friday
into Saturday. NBM guidance trended with the ECMWF with cooler
temperatures Friday into Saturday, and more widespread
precipitation chances across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the
region by early afternoon, moving near KALS, KCOS and KPUB this
afternoon. Reduced CIGS and VIS along with gusty outflow winds
will likely accompany thunderstorms that pass over the
terminals. Overall, winds will be gusty at each terminal into
this evening, with clearing conditions into the overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ220>222-
224>237.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ220>222-224-226>237.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1244 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-120645-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1244 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible region-wide this
afternoon and early evening. A few of these storms may be strong
to severe, producing winds gusts to 60 mph, frequent cloud to
ground lightning and small hail. Additionally, with drought
conditions over the region, any cloud to ground lightning will
have the potential to start fires.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday and Monday,
with strong southwest winds gusting to 45 to 55 mph and relative
humidity values below 10 percent both days.

On Tuesday, a strong pacific weather system will move across
Colorado, bringing windy and cooler weather to the area. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible across the southeast
plains during the late morning and early afternoon, before a cold
front brings cooler and more moist air into the region by late in
the day. Over the mountains, mainly along the Continental Divide,
snow will be possible, with some moderate accumulations expected,
especially over the eastern San Juans.

Drier weather will return late Wednesday through Friday, and critical
fire weather conditions will be possible across the region,
especially on Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1215 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

COZ069-111845-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
1215 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SAGUACHE COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM MDT...

At 1215 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Center, or 26 miles northwest of Alamosa, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 10621 3776 10628 3794 10614 3779 10595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 229DEG 16KT 3776 10620

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
121 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

COZ069-070-072-073-078>080-087-111945-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
121 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ALAMOSA...
NORTHWESTERN HUERFANO...SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN SAGUACHE
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

At 121 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Great Sand Dunes, or 26 miles northeast of Alamosa, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Great Sand Dunes, Silver Cliff, and Rosita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 10555 3772 10565 3780 10568 3786 10564
      3813 10537 3795 10511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 220DEG 34KT 3776 10556

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Simcoe