Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Pueblo, CO

741 
WWUS55 KPUB 212103
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COC011-212113-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260521T2115Z/
Bent CO-
303 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BENT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds 
and torrential rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 10305 3792 10317 3811 10318 3806 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 220DEG 22KT 3800 10303 

$$

Ehr

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
237 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
  and evening across the southeast plains.

- Scattered afternoon showers and storms, especially over and
  near the higher terrain, continue Friday and Saturday.

- Warming trend for Sunday with more moisture possibly moving into
  the region early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has increasing
westerly flow aloft across the Rockies, as a trough is translating
across the Intermountain West and into the Rockies at this time.
Morning stratus across the plains has broken up, with regional
satellite imagery indicating CU developing across the higher
terrain, as well as across the Raton Mesa and into the southeast
plains. Regional radars are indicating a some weak echoes
across higher terrain, especially across the northern mtns, with
a few storms firing across the southern I-25 Corridor as of 1 pm.

This afternoon and evening...SPC meso analysis has SB CAPE of 500-
1000 j/kg across the I-25 Corridor, increasing to over 2000 j/kg
across the far southeast plains, where dew points are in the mid to
upper 50s at this time. SPC Meso analysis also has the strongest deep
layer shear of 40-50kts across Northern and Central Colorado, with
20-30kts of shear across Southern Colorado at this time.

Latest model data continues to support deep layer shear increasing
across southern Colorado through the late afternoon and early
evening, with cams continuing to indicate super cell development and
helicity swaths across the southeast plains through the late
afternoon, with the potential for storms to line out as they move
into western Kansas into the early evening. With that said, Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 238 is in effect for Las Animas, Baca, Otero,
Bent and Prowers counties through 03Z. Will need to watch for storm
development across the Palmer Dvd into northern portions of the
southeast Plains, with the stronger shear, but lesser progged
instability, as a few cams do indicate some development along and
north of the Palmer.

Upper trough continues to translate across the Rockies tonight, with
a secondary round of showers and storms pushing south across the
plains with the systems passing cold front. Best coverage of storms
progged to remain across northeast Colorado into northern portions
of the southeast plains overnight, with breezy northerly winds
expected across all of southeast Colorado behind the front. Upslope
develops across the plains through the day on Friday, with yet
another weak embedded wave within the moderate westerly flow aloft,
helping to develop scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
over and near the higher terrain into the afternoon. Temperatures to
remain at to below seasonal levels, with highs in the 60s to low 70s
across the plains tomorrow, with 40s and 50s across the higher
terrain and mainly 60s across the high mtn valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Modest west to northwest flow remains progged across the region on
Saturday as upper level ridging builds across the region Sunday
into Monday. Latest models indicate another weak disturbance
across the area on Saturday, keeping the chances for afternoon
and evening showers and storms across the area, with the best
coverage over and near the higher terrain. Warming and drying trend
for Sunday, with enough moisture in place to support isolated to
scattered afternoon mtn showers.

By Monday...models are indicating the potential for increasing
moisture within southwest flow aloft, as another upper trough
develops and translates across the Pacific Northwest and
Intermountain West through early next week. This will bring
increasing chances of showers and storms to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. Latest model data keeps best chances of storms north of
COS and south of PUB and did not include any mention of convection
in the tafs at this time. Breezy southerly winds at COS and
southeast winds at PUB will continue through the late afternoon,
with gusty northerly winds expected to develop between 04Z-06Z
with passing waves associated cold front moving across the
plains. Gusty west to southwest winds at ALS to continue through
the late afternoon, with winds diminishing through the early
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
935 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-221545-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
935 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

One or two severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over
the southeast Plains of Colorado. Although thunderstorms could
occur anywhere over the southeast Colorado plains today, the
overall best chance of severe storms will be south of Highway 50
and generally north and east of a line from Rocky Ford to Trinchera.

Shear and instability favor isolated supercell thunderstorms, so
hail from 1 to 2 inches in diameter will be possible, along with
wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. An Isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible this evening into
the overnight hours, and most of these storms are expected to
occur north of the Highway 50 Corridor. Gusty winds, small hail,
brief periods of heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning will be
the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible both
Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon across the plains. Shear
will be weaker aloft but sufficient instability will be over the
region, so one or two of these storms could be on the stronger side.

For Sunday and Monday, it will be much warmer over the region and
only high based isolated storms will be possible. Gusty winds will
be the main threat.

For Tuesday, a slug of moisture is expected to be advected over the
interior mountains in advance of a tight mid level low pressure
system over the north central Rockies. This will support showers
and thunderstorm chances over the interior mountains and valleys.
Since it has been so very dry over the interior mountains of
late, fire starts from lightning will be a distinct possibility
Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

23/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1211 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ074-088-211900-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1211 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM MDT...

At 1211 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Trinidad, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Starkville, Model, and Hoehne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 10456 3726 10460 3737 10423 3710 10418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 257DEG 22KT 3719 10448

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1259 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ074-088-094-211945-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1259 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

At 1258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Model, or 14 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Cokedale, Starkville, Raton Pass, Boncarbo, Model, Segundo,
Hoehne, Thatcher, Tyrone, and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10487 3716 10491 3763 10409 3731 10369
      3699 10438 3699 10480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 243DEG 17KT 3727 10426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
142 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ088-094-212030-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
142 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM MDT...

At 140 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Model, or 23 miles east of Trinidad, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Las Animas
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 10424 3731 10426 3748 10389 3723 10378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 258DEG 14KT 3728 10411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
209 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ094-212100-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
209 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 209 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles southeast of Thatcher, or 42 miles south of La Junta, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Las
Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 10380 3745 10388 3755 10353 3733 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 252DEG 17KT 3738 10373

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
225 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ097-212100-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
225 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM MDT...

At 225 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Higbee, or 20 miles southeast of North La Junta, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Bent
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 10315 3779 10331 3798 10329 3791 10294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 220DEG 21KT 3782 10320

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ094-097-212115-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
241 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 241 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 24 miles south of Las Animas to 14 miles
southeast of Higbee. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Las
Animas and southwestern Bent Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 10294 3762 10310 3750 10327 3762 10342
      3778 10330 3786 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 246DEG 16KT 3772 10312 3760 10330

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr