Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
501 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms and locally heavy rain possible LATE this
afternoon into the evening hours over parts of the forecast area.

- Cooler tomorrow, with a good chance of convection over the eastern
plains tomorrow evening extending into the overnight hours of early
Thursday morning.

- Hot again Friday, but a bit cooler for the weekend, then even
  cooler for early next week with showers and storms continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The main concern in the short term is the threat of showers and
thunderstorms, some strong with heavy rain, extending for the El
Paso/N Pueblo area eastward out to Kiowa county. Strong storms will
be possible in this above mentioned area, but the heavier rain
threat will likely be over the greater Kiowa county region late this
evening.

First, SPC has pushed the marginal westward to E Pueblo/E El Paso
county area eastward. This looks reasonable as a band of CAPE and
some shear are noted over this region later today. Secondly, the
CAMS have been showing some rather impressive 1 hour rainfall
amounts this evening over the far eastern plains, mainly in the
greater Kiowa county region. The guidance has been pretty persistent
on keeping these rather high qpf values run and run. Have bumped up
the QPF over this region and we have issued a mesographics
describing the threat for late this afternoon into the evening hours.

Another area of showers and storms is expected to occur mainly this
afternoon and early evening along the CO/NM-OK border areas.

Over the remainder of the region, the convective activity will be
more isolated. Although I cannot rule out some heavy rain over the
Aspen Acres burn scar, the probability is too low for a flash flood
watch.

Tomorrow...Seasonable temperatures are expected this day and not
expecting too much during the afternoon time period. The best chance
of precip prior to 6 pm tomorrow will be over the southern Sangres.

Tomorrow night...and interesting scenario develops as the guidance
has rather high pops over all of the southeastern plains tomorrow
evening and tomorrow night. forcing for this precip is associated
with a short wave in the developing WNW flow aloft developing over
the region. The NBM POP numbers looked a bit overdone to me, and
have decreased these values to scattered values for most of the
evening /overnight time period.

The moisture late tomorrow over the AA burn scar may be of higher
quality, and later shifts may need to issue a flash flood watch for
the AA Burn scar for the Wed afternoon/evening time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Thursday, drier air is forecast to move into the interior sections
and it will likely be dry over the higher terrain. the best chance
of any showers will be over the far southeastern plains during the
late afternoon and evening time period. Temperatures will be
seasonable this day. Marginal critical fire weather conditions will
be possible over the interior mtns due to single digit min RH
values and breezy conditions.

Friday is expected to be mainly dry and much warmer, with mid 90s
most of plains and mid 80s valleys. It will be much drier over the
interior  and fire weather concerns will continua over the interior
mtns (Although RH values will be a bit higher than Thursdays values).

Weekend...Saturday will be cooler than Sunday (Mid 80s vs Low 90s).
Scattered storms are expected each day in the mtns with isolated
over the plains.

For early next week, statistical guidance still shows quite a bit of
variability, but overall it shows a cooling trend with a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the region. The
variability is likely due in part to the timing of a cool front
which is forecast to come down the plains during the ~Tuesday-ish
time frame. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front range and
push eastward with a high probability of affecting KCOS and KPUB
between 00z and 03z. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 kts, heavy
rainfall with MVFR to IFR vis will be possible with +RA. There
is a low chance for small hail at KCOS. Otherwise KALS will see
variable evening cloudiness with the possibility of VCSH with
gusty outflow winds, though odds are low. Thunderstorms will
push east across the plains overnight and another cold front
will push southward through the plains bringing gusty north
winds up to 25 to 30 kts through the morning at KCOS and KPUB.
Winds will swing around from the east in the afternoon at both
terminals. Thunderstorms will redevelop Wednesday afternoon but
are expected to stay south of highway 50 and unlikely to affect
the terminals. KALS will stay dry with some scattered VFR
clouds. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-091700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Showers and thunderstorms, some strong and capable of heavy rain,
will be possible from late this afternoon and last into the
evening hours.

The best chance of strong thunderstorms capable of producing
winds to 60 to 70 mph will generally be along and north of highway
50. In addition, heavy rain will be likely this evening, with the
best chance of heavy rain across Kiowa county late this evening.
Localized flash flooding could occur with the stronger storms
across the Kiowa county region.

Storms will initially form across El Paso and Pueblo counties
during the very late afternoon and then move east during the
evening hours.

Another area which will likely see a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be along the Colorado and New Mexico-Oklahome
border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms remain in the
forecast for Wednesday, especially for the southern mountains into
the southeast plains. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will remain a concern across the Aspen Acres burn area on
Wednesday, with stronger storms also producing gusty winds of 40
to 50 mph, as well as small hail. The storms are expected to last
well into the night time hours across the eastern plains Wednesday
night.

Drier air starts to work into the region from the west, with
breezy conditions leading to the potential for elevated fire
danger across the higher terrain, especially over and near the
Continental Divide on Thursday and Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms return for the weekend
into early next week, especially over the higher terrain of the
Continental Divide.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

34/34

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