Severe Thunderstorm Warning 316, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1254 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shortwave will move across the region bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area late this afternoon and evening; some of
the activity will move across during the late evening/early AM
hours.

- Drier weather Tuesday through Thursday

- Better monsoon flow pattern returns late this week into the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Overall, most of the region, especially the higher terrain, should
see precip between now and late night tonight. The least amount of
precip will be over the far southeast part of the plains. flash
flooding will be possible along the Divide.

The I-25 corridor may see 2 rounds of precip today. The first will
be the normal showers and storms coming through during the normal
late afternoon and early evening time period. Best activity is
expected to from along the Raton Mesa later this afternoon and move
north-northeat. Activity farther north during this time period will
be more isolated. Later this evening, a more pronounced short wave
will move across and this will likely bring a better chance of
showers and some tsra to the I-25 corridor region.

Looking at the weather for the mountains, we will see a better
chance of showers and storms later this afternoon, this evening and
into the early morning hours. The better chance for heavier rain
will be over the central mountains, and areas such as the Chalk
Bluffs and Willow burn scar will have to be watched carefully for
flash flooding through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Although the monsoon plume will stay over the region this week, the
quality of the moisture will be less. Likewise, showers and storms
will be possible over the region, but there will be less activity
Tuesday through the Thursday time period. Overall, expect scattered
storms in the mtns, and isolated activity over the plains.

From Friday into the weekend, Deterministic guidance shows moisture
increasing through the column during this period. and showers and
storms should become more prevalent over the region during this time
period. This same overall pattern is indicated by the statistical
guidance. Warmest temps should occur late in the week. 100s may come
back to parts of the far east plains Friday and Saturday. A bit of a
cooling pattern possible by early next week, but there is
disagreement in the guidance about this outcome.

Checking the fire weather parameters during this forecast period, we
may see some spotty conditions on Thursday across a small part of
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms may be possible
at the taf sites this late afternoon and evening, with main
concern being gusty winds in and around the convective
activity. The main forcing will move across KCOS and KPUB during
the 02-05 UTC time period. Otherwise anticipate VFR conditions
through the period with primarily light diurnal wind flow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ059>061.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-011745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1135 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains this
afternoon and spread into the adjacent valleys and plains through
the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the activity over
the region will last into the overnight hours.

The main risks with thunderstorms over the mountains will be
heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding, especially
over the central mountain region.

Elsewhere over the plains, a few strong storms will be possible
across the lower elevations east of a line from Rocky Ford to
Trinidad. Small hail under 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts up to 50
mph, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the
stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday,
especially across the mountains.  Brief heavy rainfall, lightning
and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph will be possible.  After a dry
period for Wednesday and Thursday, scattered thunderstorms will
return to the forecast for Friday into next weekend, with locally
heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds possible with the stronger
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
430 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

COZ089-093-094-097-312300-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Crowley County CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
430 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN OTERO...SOUTHEASTERN
CROWLEY...NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 430 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Crowley to near Higbee
to 16 miles southeast of Timpas. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, North La Junta, Rocky Ford, Ordway, Swink, Manzanola, Sugar
City, Cheraw, Crowley, and Higbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 10380 3804 10323 3766 10327 3753 10368
      3778 10366 3817 10394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 227DEG 24KT 3816 10383 3783 10349 3765 10357

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
500 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

COZ093-094-097-099-312330-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
500 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...
NORTHWESTERN BACA...NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 500 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Higbee, or 24 miles south of North La Junta, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 10363 3766 10381 3781 10358 3765 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 236DEG 37KT 3764 10344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
503 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

COZ089-093-095-097-312330-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Crowley County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
503 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OTERO...
SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN CROWLEY AND NORTHWESTERN BENT
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 503 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cheraw, or near North La Junta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, North La Junta, Las Animas, Cheraw, and Blue Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 10349 3807 10364 3833 10336 3813 10313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 228DEG 20KT 3806 10350

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam

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