Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
542 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture strengthens slightly through most of next
  week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over
  the region.

- Flooding and flash flooding will be possible each day over the
  Aspen Acres and 24 burn scars, urban areas, and over regions
  with saturated soils.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Thunderstorm coverage will continue to be more isolated late this
afternoon and evening. The primary risks will be gusty outflow winds
of up to 40 MPH - so keep an eye out for virga which would be an
indicator of strong winds. Underneath the core of the thunderstorm
will be locally heavy rainfall. At this point in time, there is no
hail in the forecast. As for flash flooding risks this afternoon, it
is fairly low - one cannot rule out an isolated storm that develops
over the burn scar in which we'll have to issue a Flash Flood
Warning, but the chances are low (<20%).

Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 60s across the plains
and the 50s over mountain valleys.

The stronger monsoonal tap returns once again tomorrow as the upper
level high pressure center building today compresses allowing a
westerly moist flow reach Colorado. The main question is if to issue
a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow for the Aspen Acres Burn Scar. I
cannot say right now with 50% certainty or higher that the burn scar
will have a flash flood tomorrow, therefore I will hold off on the
Watch for this forecast cycle. Check back with the overnight
crew.

High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s
across the plains and in the upper 80s to low 90s over the
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Monsoon moisture will be present throughout most of the week. Sunday
afternoon and evening has the strongest flooding signal for the
Aspen Acres burn scar with enough confidence for thunderstorm
development further south across the region. The 500hPa high is
compressed enough in response to a wave passing to the north of the
high to allow these storms to develop. So keep an eye out for a
Flash Flood Watch for Sunday afternoon.  Monday through Wednesday
has a lot of similarities, however. The high is centered south of
Colorado and allows that monsoonal moisture over the west to advect
over southern Colorado, so there will be daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms over our mountains, mountain valleys, and plains.
We'll need to be on higher alert for flooding and flash flooding
over urban areas, regions with saturated soils, and over our burn
scars, including the Aspen Acres burn scar.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected across much of the forecast area over
the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. Maintained mention of VCSH for TAF sites through 02z,
with a PROB30 for -TSRA at KALS through 02z. Brought in VCTS
for KALS and KCOS starting around 19z-20z tomorrow, while KPUB
will likely see developing convection beyond forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...MOORE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
221 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-222030-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
221 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
across the higher terrain and nearby adjacent plains this afternoon
through early evening, with the main threats being cloud to ground
lightning and wind gusts to 50 mph. If a storm happens to move
over the Aspen Acres burn scar, flash flooding could occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There will be a daily shot of showers and thunderstorms, initiating
over the higher terrain by midday, then spreading across the I-25
Corridor and adjacent plains through the evening hours. Main threats
will be wind gusts to 50 mph, cloud to ground lightning, periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall and small hail. There are indications of
possibly some stronger storms near the Kansas border Sunday
afternoon and evening.

The threat for flash flooding, particularly for area burn scars,
increases starting Saturday and remains elevated each day through
Tuesday due to the potential coverage and frequency of
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

SKELLY/SKELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

COZ084-085-212230-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
358 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM MDT...

At 358 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Schriever Space Force Base, or 15 miles east of Colorado Springs,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Schriever Space Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 10461 3889 10451 3879 10433 3871 10459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 328DEG 8KT 3884 10454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
731 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

COZ095-220200-
Western Kiowa County CO-
731 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM MDT...

At 730 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Haswell, or 38 miles west of Cheyenne Wells,
moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haswell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 10319 3861 10315 3862 10288 3844 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 358DEG 16KT 3861 10302

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Moore