Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1247 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Burn scar flash flooding and marginally severe storms possible
this evening.

- Daily afternoon showers and storms will continue into early
  next week, along with slowly warming temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Currently...

A few showers have already formed over the higher terrain as of 1pm.
Latest mesoanalysis shows 2000+ J/kg of surface-based CAPE along and
east of the mountains, though there is a bit of a cap in place that
may keep things from intensifying for a few more hours. Meanwhile,
30-40 knots of effective bulk shear is in place, though with the
best conditions just slightly north of our area.

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Storms will continue forming over and near the mountains this
afternoon, before spreading southeast and intensifying into tonight.
Main concern will initially be flash flooding, particularly over the
Aspen Acres burn scar, due to heavy rain. As storms move east, they
will enter more unstable air and intensify, becoming strong to
severe. Outflow winds to 60 mph and hail to 1.5 inches will be
possible, along with heavy rain and flash flooding for urban and low-
lying areas. Storms will continue for a few hours after sunset,
though most of the CAMs have the last of the activity dissipating by
around midnight. That could push a bit longer if we get any stronger
outflow interactions, but at this time the chance isn't very high.

Thursday...

Upper ridge will continue building in over the region on Thursday.
The plains will be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid-90s, while
the valleys remain in the 80s. Less available moisture and a lack of
large-scale forcing will keep afternoon convection tied to the
mountains, with mostly scattered POPs aside from the San Juans and
southern Sangres, which show better potential for some localized
upsloping. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible at times, so
we will have to continue monitoring the burn scars for flash
flooding potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The pattern for the long-term forecast remains consistent with
previous model runs. The upper ridge will continue dominating the
region, with the center of the high slowly shifting east through the
weekend. Temperatures will remain warm, with some areas over the
eastern plains creeping back into triple digits. Daily showers and
thunderstorms will continue each day as moisture moves around the
upper high. Most convection will be over the mountains, but the
eastern plains will see isolated to scattered storms each day as
well.

Flash flooding will still be a concern over the burn scars, as even
a brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall can cause major
impacts in these areas.

As of now, this pattern looks to persist into early next week,
though model solutions begin to diverge quickly after about Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area, starting mid-
afternoon and lasting into this evening.

For KALS, left passing -TSRA as a PROB30, due to more scattered
coverage in the valley. However, will need to monitor closely for
outflow winds.

At KCOS, passing thunderstorms are more likely, especially between
21-01Z, with lower confidence later this evening. Outflow winds are
expected to be 40 knots, but an isolated gust could potential reach
higher if a stronger storm passes by.

For KPUB, storms will move off the mountains mid-afternoon, heading
southeast. Coverage will be more scattered than at KCOS, but
convection is expected to linger in the area a bit longer, until at
least 03Z or so. Outflow will be a primary impact, though if a storm
does move over, expect brief periods of heavy rainfall.

Once convection dissipates in the area, generally by 03Z or so,
lighter winds will remain at the terminals overnight, with VFR
conditions persisting into Thursday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-201730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1127 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be likely this
afternoon and into the early evening hours, extending from the
mountains-plains interface to the Kansas border. The best chance for
storms overall will be along the mountains-plains interface
southeastward to the Raton Mesa region. Storms today will be capable
of heavy rain, hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts to
60 mph. Since thunderstorms capable of heavy rain will be possible
over the Aspen Acres burn scar, significant, highly impactful flash
flooding will once again be possible across all of this burn scar
region.

Storms today will generally move from northwest to southeast.

Folks living in the Aspen Acres burn scar region should be on high
alert for flash flooding once again this afternoon. The best chance
for heavy rain will be between 2 pm and 8 pm this evening. More than
one round of heavy rain will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

With the monsoon plume over the region and the large area of high
pressure remaining the COlorado region, Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible every afternoon and evening across all of the
region. The best chance for storms will be over the mountains with
more isolated activity over the plains.
The rain over the mountains may be heavy at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

34/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
221 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

COZ074-075-088-192045-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
221 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN COSTILLA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 221 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stonewall, or 28 miles west of Trinidad. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stonewall, Segundo, and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 10517 3725 10500 3714 10466 3700 10454
      3699 10502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 251DEG 2KT 3714 10502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
326 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

COZ081-084-085-192200-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
326 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 326 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Palmer Lake, or 20 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Colorado Springs, Woodland Park, Monument, Air Force
Academy, Palmer Lake, Gleneagle, Cascade, and Chipita Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3899 10472 3888 10495 3913 10515 3913 10489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 320DEG 22KT 3910 10501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam

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