Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
118 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flooding possible on Aspen Acres Burn scar through this
  evening.

- Monsoon moisture stays over us through the weekend with
  locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible, especially for
  flood prone areas like burn scars and urban areas.

- Warming and drying trend towards the middle of next week, but
  thunderstorms still possible each day.

- A possible uptick in thunderstorms for next Thursday though
  quite a bit of uncertainty in the pattern details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH Friday/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Monsoon plume over the region will keep showers and thunderstorms
over the area through the evening as they move off the mountains
and across the southeast plains. Primary concern will be the
potential for flash flooding, particularly over the Aspen Acres
burn scar. Otherwise, signals for heavy rainfall seem to be
focused points north and eastward, across Northern El Paso
county according to HREF and NBM blended guidance. Boundary
along the lower Arkansas river may provide a focus for some
strong to marginally severe storms along with locally heavy
rainfall through this evening as NAMNest is picking up, but
given antecedent soil moisture isn't as high as areas to the
north and east of the area, no expansions of the Flash Flood
Watch are planned at this point. Some small hail under 1 inch in
diameter and damaging winds up to near 60 mph will be possible
with localized wet microbursts.

Activity pushes eastward towards the KS border by late evening,
though an active monsoon plume could keep some weaker showers
and isolated thunderstorms going into the overnight hours out
west.

A similar scenario plays out for Friday, though model blends
still show rather low probabilities for heavy rainfall on the
Aspen Acres burn scar with probabilities of 0.50 or more under
20%. For that reason, will refrain from issuing another Flash
Flood Watch at this point but these details still need to be
fine tuned with later runs as precipitable waters will remain
in the 100-140% of normal range. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around noon and
push off into the adjacent plains through the evening. Heavy
rainfall capable of producing flash flooding will still be
possibility but will need to see where rain falls today before
considering flash flood watches across the remainder of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Active monsoon plume remains over the area through the weekend
with daily thunderstorm chances over the mountains and plains
each day. Probabilities for flash flooding will continue and
perhaps amplify as more areas see rainfall and antecedent soil
moistures increase. Precipitable waters remain in the 100-130%
of normal range, highest across northern and eastern portions
of the area and Saturday looks like an uptick in thunderstorms
for the southeast mountains and adjacent plains with the
possibility for more Flash Flood watches to follow. CAPE
increases over the weekend as well with some marginal shear
25-30 kts by Sunday suggesting some strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the southeast
plains. Otherwise, temperatures will remain below normal with
highs in the 80s.

Precipitable waters decrease a bit, but still remain around
100-120% of normal early next week. Upper high center shifts
westward, putting CO under a more westerly flow pattern aloft
and shunting the tap of more significant moisture off to the
south and west. But there is still sufficient moisture trapped
within the upper high to bring daily thunderstorm chances,
especially to the mountains. Heavy rainfall may still accompany
the stronger storms. Temperatures heat up again towards mid
week.

There are some hints of a pattern change through late week as we
come under the influence of more westerly flow aloft with a
passing system to our north on Thursday. Operational GFS appears
to be an outlier compared to it ensemble mean and the EC camp.
But even the EC brings a front into the southeast plains
suggesting a return of low level moisture and another uptick in
thunderstorms, albeit with more ridging aloft than GFS shows.
Either way will stick close to the NBM model blends which keep
highs in the 90s across the plains and isolated to scattered
pops district-wide. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR clouds will increase over the TAF sites as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the mountains around noon, and spread
eastward across the valleys and plains during the afternoon and
evening. Confidence is greatest at KCOS and KPUB for -TSRA on
site between 21z and 01z. A little less confidence exists for
KALS and will maintain a PROB30 during the 22z to 02z for that
terminal. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts and brief VFR to
even MVFR vis/cigs with TSRA will be possible if storms make a
direct hit. Thunderstorms should clear to the east of the
terminals during the evening, but winds will be outflow
dominated with directions and speeds prone to change depending
on where storms develop. Isolated showers may persist into the
overnight hours within an active monsoon plume. Stratus will be
possible at KPUB between 12z and 16z with MVFR cigs. These will
burn off by 17z with another round of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms similar to today's. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1159 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-141800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1159 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late morning to
early afternoon, initially over the Mountains, then spreading east
into the Plains this evening.  Locally heavy rainfall including the
risk of flash flooding on the Aspen Acres burn scar is possible.  A
couple of storms may become strong this afternoon, mainly across the
Palmer Divide and areas north of Highway 50 with wind gusts up to around
50 mph and half inch hail. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
lift northeast overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon
and evening Friday through Sunday.  Storms will initiate across the
higher terrain and spread into the Plains through the evening and
overnight hours.  Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be
possible with flash flooding possible on area burn scars.  Stronger
storms could produce gusty outflow winds and small hail.

Drier and warmer conditions return to southern Colorado for next
week, with more isolated mountain shower and thunderstorm activity
forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

31/34

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
400 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

COZ089-095-132230-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-
400 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL KIOWA AND
NORTHEASTERN CROWLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 400 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wild Horse Point, or 35 miles north of La Junta, moving north at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Kiowa
and northeastern Crowley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 10344 3844 10365 3852 10369 3852 10351
      3853 10350 3852 10344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 172DEG 12KT 3850 10357

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
402 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

COZ084-132230-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
402 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 402 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ramah, or 26 miles southwest of Limon, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ramah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 10405 3901 10406 3903 10420 3913 10426
      3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 187DEG 8KT 3910 10414

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

COZ089-093-095-097-132245-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Crowley County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
416 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OTERO...SOUTHWESTERN
KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN CROWLEY AND NORTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH
445 PM MDT...

At 416 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles east of Sugar City, or 18 miles north of La
Junta, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sugar City, Blue Lake, and Arlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 10367 3823 10375 3833 10367 3842 10346
      3828 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 235DEG 11KT 3824 10352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG