Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
109 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch in effect until 11 PM due to heavy rainfall
  potential on the Aspen Acres Burn scar.

- Warmer and drier conditions for the weekend into early next
  week with temperatures approaching and exceeding 100 degrees
  for the southeast plains Sunday and Monday.

- First round of Heat Advisories issued for the northern I-25
  corridor Sunday. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed
  for much of the southeast plains on Monday.

- Front for Tuesday will bring another uptick in thunderstorm
  chances with potential for heavy rainfall and burn scar flash
  flooding for the southeast mountains and plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Amplifying upper ridge out west will put CO under northwest aloft
tonight and Saturday.  Storms over the mountains and I-25 corridor
will be moving southward through the evening, with a little better
deep layer shear resulting in the potential for stronger storm
strengths. High res models indicate a couple rounds of
thunderstorms, initially peaking in the late afternoon and evening,
with the potential for some regeneration across the Pikes Peak
region/Park County around 8 PM which will drop southward into the
overnight hours depending on the model.  As stated earlier, repeated
rounds of storms could lead to training storms for the vulnerable
burn scar areas which is one nudging factor for putting up a flash
flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar. Light easterly winds
should keep dew points in the 50s banked up against the lower
eastern slopes of the southeast mountains, with surface heating
resulting in CAPEs of up to 1500 J/kg, which would support the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, as well as some marginally
severe hail and potential for damaging wind gusts.  Greatest concern
though will be the flash flood potential for the Aspen Acres Burn
scar.  Current watch goes until 11 PM and will maintain. 12z NAMNest
shows another round of rain possible across this area through 2 AM,
but it is the outlier in this later timing, and will maintain watch
duration as is.  Extensions can be made as better clarity is gained.
If this later round does occur, it looks like it is being forced by
some weak energy dropping down the the east side of the upper ridge.
It is likely that storm strengths will be weaker with this final
round.

Showers and thunderstorms will percolate southward through the
overnight hours with gradual clearing towards morning.  Drier air
works in from the north on Saturday cutting back the afternoon
thunderstorm potential.  Dew points out west and in the interior
valleys will drop back down into the 20s and 30s.  There will be
enough moisture for some isolated thunderstorms across the eastern
and southwest mountains with a little better coverage towards the NM
border in the afternoon.  But the risk for burn scar flash flooding
looks considerably lower and no flash flood watches are anticipated.
Temperatures will be generally similar to a degree or two warmer
than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The drying and warming trend continues for Sunday and Monday with
temperatures across the plains anticipated to crest over 100 once
again.  Heat Advisories have been issued for the urban areas of the
I-25 corridor where temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s put
it into the higher end of the Heat Impact Levels.  There could still
be some isolated thunderstorms across the southern mountains, but
these will be higher based with more of a gusty outflow wind
potential, and only spotty moderate rainfall.  Monday looks similar
but a few degrees hotter and it is likely that more Heat Advisories
will be needed over a more widespread area of the southeast plains.
Will let later shifts hone down that area as we get closer.  Highs
up to 106 will be possible on Monday.

A cool front pushes into the southeast plains Monday night with low
level flow shifting around from the east on Tuesday.  This will
bring another uptick in thunderstorms for the southeast mountains
and plains depending on how quickly low level moisture advects back
westward.  This will increase the risk of flash flooding on Aspen
Acres.

After a cool down for Tuesday, temperatures gradually warm again,
but the area will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft
with embedded shortwaves bringing episodic thunderstorm chances to
the area most days.  Main monsoon tap looks suppressed to the south
so moisture quality doesn't looks as high as it was this week.
Precipitable waters remain around to a little below normal through
the period.  So the signal for burn scar flash flooding looks
minimal for the time being.  But temperatures will be rebounding
back towards the century mark across the plains by late week.
-KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around
noon and move south southeastward, possibly affecting KALS,
KCOS and KPUB in the 20z-03z timeframe. VFR cigs and brief MVFR
vis with heavy rainfall will be the primary risks if storms
directly impact the terminals. Gusty outflow winds up to 40-50
kts could also occur in the vicinity of storms along with small
hail. Odds of a direct impact are on the lower side of the
spectrum, so PROB30 was maintained for generally VFR conditions
with gusty outflow winds up to 35 kts at all three taf sites.
Winds will be dominated by thunderstorm outflows through the
evening, with generally north to northwesterly directions for
KCOS and KPUB...and easterly directions for KALS. Otherwise,
expect clearing skies with winds settling into diurnal patterns
overnight into Saturday morning.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-011730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the
mountains and spread into the I-25 corridor counties. Training
echoes with heavy rainfall could lead to dangerous flash flooding
across the Aspen Acres burn scar through this evening. In addition to
heavy rainfall, one or two storms could become strong to marginally
severe, producing hail up to 1 inch in diameter, gusty outflow
winds up to 60 mph and lightning.

Thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours before
weakening and diminishing overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Drier, hotter conditions will arrive for the weekend.  Afternoon
temperatures by Sunday and Monday will reach well into the 90s to
lower 100s across the Plains, with the hottest conditions on Monday.

A return of showers and thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday through
Friday.  Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding on area burn scars, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

31/31

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
315 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ071-072-074-075-087-312200-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Southern San Luis Valley CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
315 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN HUERFANO AND
NORTHEASTERN COSTILLA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 314 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
La Veta Pass, or 38 miles east of Alamosa, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and torrential
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Ponding of water on paved roadways, and washouts
         of dirt roads will be possible.  Creeks, streams and dry
         washes may experience rapid rises.

Locations impacted include...
La Veta, La Veta Pass, Spring Burn Scar south of Highway 160 in
Costilla county, Spring Burn Scar north of Highway 160, Indian Creek
on the southeastern Spring Burn Scar, and Spring Burn Scar south of
Highway 160 in Huerfano county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 10532 3769 10513 3748 10490 3734 10519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 329DEG 13KT 3759 10518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
332 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ085-086-089-093-312215-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Crowley County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
332 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTERO...SOUTHEASTERN
EL PASO...WESTERN CROWLEY AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
MDT...

At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles north of Boone to near Pueblo Depot to
8 miles northwest of Pueblo West. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail and torrential
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Airport, Fountain, Fowler, Olney Springs, Boone,
Pueblo Reservoir, Salt Creek, Pueblo Depot, Pinon, Blende, Pueblo
West, Avondale, and Hanover.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 10410 3855 10405 3852 10405 3852 10404
      3822 10386 3800 10423 3812 10478 3860 10491
      3859 10445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 333DEG 22KT 3844 10421 3834 10441 3845 10479

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

COZ076-077-083-312215-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
350 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FREMONT AND
SOUTHWESTERN TELLER COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 349 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Royal Gorge, or 37 miles southwest of Colorado
Springs, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Royal Gorge and Canon City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 10515 3838 10545 3861 10555 3870 10536
      3870 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 330DEG 11KT 3859 10545

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTS