Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flood threat continues through this evening as
  widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
  region.

- Hot temperatures continue this weekend, along with mountain
  rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Tonight: Active weather is expected heading into Thursday
evening for parts of south central and southeastern Colorado. A
wave will be passing over the region during the evening hours,
bringing a modest uptick in forcing and support. These factors,
in combination with high moisture in place, will allow for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop
during the evening hours and into the early overnight hours. The
greatest coverage of precipitation is expected across the
eastern plains though, where outflows from earlier storms will
help to initiate further storm development. Heavy rain, frequent
lighting, and strong outflow winds to around 50 mph will be
possible with any more organized thunderstorm. With that all
said, as the wave pushes east and exits, any showers and storms
across the area are expected to dissipate during the mid
overnight hours, with dry conditions by Friday morning. Outside
of all of that, mostly cloudy skies early tonight with give way
to mostly clear skies by Friday morning as the wave exits, with
winds remaining light outside of storms, generally less than 10
mph. Looking at temperatures, another mild July night is
anticipated given the high moisture content. Lows for the plains
will be in the mid 60s, in the mid 50s to low 60s for the
valleys, and in the mid 40s to low 50s for the mountains.

Tomorrow: For Friday, active weather continues for south
central and southeastern Colorado. With the shortwave gone, the
ridge of high pressure will quickly reestablish itself as the
dominant synoptic feature around the four corners region. Given
this, weak and nebulous flow and support will be in place for
south central and southeastern Colorado. However, abundant
moisture will remain in place, and this, along with diurnal
terrain circulations, will allow for scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and storms to blossom along the higher
terrain. In addition, some spillage across the valleys is
anticipated as outflows push off the terrain, though generally
lesser in coverage, with more isolated to scattered showers and
storms. The plains are expected to remain mostly dry, though
can't rule out an isolated shower or storm along the I-25
corridor area. Beyond all of that, mostly clear skies early will
become partly cloudy during the afternoon hours, with winds
still remaining fairly light, around and less than 10 mph,
outside of thunderstorms. As for temperatures, another warm day
is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado. The
plains will warm into the mid to upper 90s, the valleys into the
80s to low 90s, and the mountains into the upper 50s to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

This Weekend Onwards...

As the upper high moves overhead, flow weakens aloft. Forcing for
storms will significantly weaken, though recycling monsoon moisture
will be plentiful enough to keep afternoon showers and storms going
over the mountains. Meanwhile, the plains will dry out again, with
triple-digit temperatures returning. Current long-range guidance
suggests a wetter and potentially cooler (or at least less hot)
pattern as we move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will diminish through mid
evening, with the likelihood of any thunderstorms quickly
lowering. Do think a stray shower with limited impacts will
remain possible, and so have kept a VCSH at all sites this
evening. Dry and VFR conditions are then expected for the
remainder of the period.

Outflow boundaries have dictated the winds this past afternoon,
but with limited precip development this evening, this should
help winds lighten and become more diurnally driven, if not
light and variable this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-241730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and this evening. Best coverage will be over and near the
mountains, with more scattered precipitation over the eastern
plains.

Biggest concern for today will be flash flooding, mainly over the
Aspen Acres and Willow burn areas, along with any other susceptible
areas like the Chalk Cliffs, alongside low-lying urban areas. Heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms.

One or two stronger thunderstorms may be possible over the eastern
plains later this afternoon, with gusty outflow to 60 mph and
hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Showers and storms will continue over the higher terrain on Friday,
with little to no convection expected over the eastern plains.
However, if a storm moves over a burn scar flash flooding will still
be a concern.

Mountain rain will continue throughout the weekend, though the
plains will remain generally dry and hot with temperatures over 100
degrees. As of now, this pattern looks to persist into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/GARBEROGLIO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
558 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

COZ096-240030-
Eastern Kiowa County CO-
558 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY THROUGH 630
PM MDT...

At 557 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Towner, or 15 miles west of Tribune, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sheridan Lake, Brandon, and Towner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 10244 3860 10244 3861 10205 3831 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 294DEG 18KT 3850 10203

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
630 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     Hail             Towner                  38.47N 102.08W
07/23/2026  M1.75 Inch       Kiowa              CO   Trained Spotter

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
640 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

COZ084-085-240115-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
640 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 715 PM MDT...

At 640 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Yoder to near Rush to near Truckton.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truckton, Yoder, and Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 10405 3857 10406 3857 10412 3876 10431
      3884 10422 3891 10419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 316DEG 19KT 3886 10417 3880 10417 3877 10423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
705 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

COZ097-240145-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
705 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENT COUNTY THROUGH
745 PM MDT...

At 704 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of John Martin Reservoir, or 24 miles northeast of
North La Junta, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Las Animas, John Martin Reservoir, Blue Lake, and Fort Lyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 10325 3824 10326 3826 10316 3826 10302
      3808 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 268DEG 8KT 3817 10315

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
707 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SSW Towner            38.41N 102.11W
07/23/2026  M60 MPH          Kiowa              CO   Public

&&

MG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
715 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Rain             2 SSW Wetmore           38.20N 105.10W
07/23/2026  M0.40 Inch       Custer             CO   Trained Spotter

            Storm total accumulation.

&&

MG