Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Pueblo, CO

358 
WWUS55 KPUB 112302
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
502 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

COC119-112312-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-260711T2315Z/
Teller CO-
502 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TELLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 10495 3866 10516 3879 10517 3879 10496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 169DEG 0KT 3873 10505 

$$

Simcoe

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
201 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering moisture under building upper ridge to support isolated,
  high based convection over and near the higher terrain through Sunday.

- Modest easterly flow aloft supports mainly hot and dry
  conditions across eastern CO through much of the upcoming work
  week, with a slow increase in available moisture across
  western CO bringing increasing chances of daily thunderstorms,
  mainly along and west of the ContDvd through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
northerly flow aloft across the region, with an upper high centered
across the Four Corners region at this time. Water vapor imagery is
also indicating drier and subsident air working into the region,
with GOES Total Water Vapor imagery indicating PWATs running around
0.30 to 0.50 inches across western and into south central CO, and
around 0.50 to near 1 inch across eastern CO at this time. GOES visible
imagery has CU building across the higher terrain early this afternoon,
with regional radars indicating a few showers across the higher terrain
of the Central and Southwest mtns, along with a current thunderstorm
across the southern Sangre de Cristo mtns as of 1230 pm.

For the rest of the afternoon through tonight, latest CAMs are indicating
run to run differences on coverage and location of pop up storms, and
are likely struggling with the amount of drying and subsidence under
said building ridge. With the northerly flow aloft and east to southeast
low level flow, have kept the isolated to scattered pops across the
southeast mtns and Pikes Peak region through the late afternoon, with
mainly isolated pops across the rest of the higher terrain and into
the San Luis Valley. Showers and storms to be mainly high based,
which supports gusty outflow winds as main weather concern. Otherwise,
convection diminishes and ends with the loss of solar heating, leading
to clearing skies overnight, with lows similar to previous nights,
in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, and mainly in the
40s across the higher terrain.

Latest models continue to indicate upper level ridging building into the
Northern Rockies through the day tomorrow, with flow aloft becoming more
east to northeast across the region. With continued warming and subsidence
aloft, along with the more easterly flow, should see mainly dry conditions
across eastern Colorado, with the potential for a few high based showers
across the higher terrain through the afternoon. Temperatures look to be
around to slightly warmer than today's readings, with highs mainly 90s
across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, and in
the 80s to lower 90s across the high mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Latest long term and ensemble model data continue to build the upper high
north and east into the Upper Midwest through the middle of the week,
keeping generally warm and dry easterly flow across the region, especially
across eastern Colorado. Latest models, however, do indicate a slow increase
in available moisture circulating into southwest and western Colorado as
well, leading to increasing chances of daily showers and possible storms
through the week. Best coverage of said convection to be generally west
of the ContDvd, with convection initially being high based, supporting an
increased potential for dry thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds. Chances
of wetting rains to increase along and west of the ContDvd into early
next weekend, as model data supports monsoonal moisture across the Desert
SW pushing east across the Great Basin and into western Colorado.

As for temperatures, at and above seasonal temperatures to continue
across the region, though the modest easterly flow will likely keep
temperatures from being "excessive" from July standards. In addition,
the warm and mainly dry conditions will lead to increasing fire danger
once again, however, modest flow aloft will likely support only spotty
critical fire weather conditions across the district through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. Upper level ridging continues to build across western
Colorado, leading to modest northerly flow aloft across the
region. With that said, isolated high based -shra/-tsra remain
possible over the higher terrain, with low to very low chances
of these -shra/-tsra affecting the terminals. Best chances of
outflow winds from storms affecting the terminals will be at
ALS, and have added a prob30 for the low potential for gusty
winds near the terminal. Probs remain too low to add any mention
for COS and PUB at this time. Convection to diminish and end
through the early evening with clearing skies overnight.
Otherwise, generally light diurnal wind regimes expected at
the terminals, save for breezy easterlies developing at ALS
through the late afternoon and into the evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1058 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-121700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1058 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over and
near the higher terrain this afternoon, with the best coverage
across the eastern mountains and in the the Pikes Peak region.
Gusty outflow winds, cloud to ground lightning and brief rainfall
will be the main threats from storms today. Storms will diminish
and end through the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Warmer and drier weather develops from Sunday through much of
next week, with spotty critical fire weather conditions possible
over the mountains and San Luis Valley from Sunday into Thursday.
There will still be enough moisture across the mountains for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, though
most storm activity will produce gusty winds and lightning, but
only light rainfall. Moisture will slowly increase over the
western half of Colorado from mid to late week, with a gradual
return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over and
near the Continental Divide.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed through tonight.

23/10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1206 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 S Springfield         37.28N 102.62W
07/10/2026  M63 MPH          Baca               CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KSPD 8 S Springfield.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1207 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 WSW Lamar             38.07N 102.68W
07/10/2026  M60 MPH          Prowers            CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KLAA Lamar Airport.

0533 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 E Thatcher            37.54N 104.03W
07/10/2026  M64 MPH          Las Animas         CO   Mesonet

            Time based off radar data.

0856 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 S Springfield         37.28N 102.62W
07/10/2026  M63 MPH          Baca               CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KSPD 8 S Springfield.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
212 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

COZ081-083-085-112045-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
212 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FREMONT...
SOUTHEASTERN TELLER AND SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
MDT...

At 212 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Victor, or 15 miles southwest of Colorado Springs. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Fremont, southeastern Teller and southwestern El Paso Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3857 10499 3863 10512 3876 10508 3868 10487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 210DEG 1KT 3867 10502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
404 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

COZ081>083-085-112230-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
404 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FREMONT...
SOUTHEASTERN TELLER AND SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
MDT...

At 403 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Victor, or 16 miles southwest of Colorado Springs, moving south at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Victor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 10515 3877 10497 3859 10493 3860 10520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 005DEG 6KT 3870 10508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
408 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

COZ072-073-078-079-112245-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
408 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CUSTER AND EASTERN
SAGUACHE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 408 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Crestone Peak, or 46 miles northeast of Alamosa. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Silver Cliff and Westcliffe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 10556 3812 10535 3794 10546 3808 10568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 037DEG 3KT 3808 10553

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
435 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

COZ069-072-073-112300-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
435 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SAGUACHE COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 435 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Crestone, or 36 miles north of Alamosa, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crestone and Great Sand Dunes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10577 3800 10563 3782 10567 3792 10593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 026DEG 13KT 3798 10573

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe